With Taiwan President Tsai Ing -wen's unprecedented election victory, some commentators believe that Taiwan's political structure that has been greater than green in the past has gone back and predicted that the DPP will be in power in Taiwan for a long time.
Some scholars believe that whether the DPP can dominate the governing status for a long time is too early. Two years later, local elections will be a key observation indicator.Although the election results have proved that the generation of natural platforms with strong consciousness in Taiwan is rising, but these young voters may not be the iron ticket warehouse of the DPP.
In the election of the president and legislator on January 11, Tsai Ing -wen was re -elected with 8.17 million votes to set a record of the votes for the election of the president; the DPP won 61 seats in the legislature election and was completely in power again.
Tang Yiyuan, the Minister of Taiwan Affairs in the Liaison Office of the Chinese Central Government in Hong Kong, published an article after the election that because young people have been brainwashed and attracted by the DPP, he predicts that the DPP will be in power for a long time in the future. This situation will not be 10 to 20 years in the future.Change.
Tsai Ing -wen has a big difference with the DPP party's party voting
However, Yan Jianfa, a professor of the Department of Enterprise Management of the University of Science and Technology, who was once the director of the China Department of Affairs of the Democratic Progressive Party, believes that the DPP's victory this time is because the anti -Chinese emotions are fully fermented and do not represent the DPP.He said: The current Taiwanese voter structure is just a gradual lsquo; green rsquo; and the votes of South Korean Yu and the Kuomintang are still considerable.Whether the DPP can be governed for a long time has to observe the 2022 county mayor election and the presidential election of 2024.
Dong Jianhong, the chief vice president of the DPP policy meeting, pointed out in a seminar a few days ago that Tsai Ing -wen's votes have a big difference with the DPP's party votes, indicating that the DPP has not yet been taught in the 2018 local elections.Get completely recognized by voters.Due to the poor administration and the reform of the people's hearts, the DPP lost seven ruling counties and cities in local elections two years ago, including Kaohsiung, which has been governed for a long time.
In this election, the Democratic Progressive Party received only 4.81 million party votes, not only 3.36 million less votes from Tsai Ing -wen's president, but also 10 % less compared to 5.37 million party votes in 2016.Although the Kuomintang in the wild, although the Presidential votes lost 2.64 million Democratic Progressive Party, the political party votes were equal, reaching 4.72 million.
When Tsai Ing -wen attended the DPP last week, he reminded party members that 8.17 million voters who voted for her supported the DPP. Among them, they just did not like their opponents, or they opposed LSquo;
Chen Yixin, a lecture professor at the Department of Political Department of Culture University, said in an interview that although the ideology of young people is consistent with the DPP, if the economy has not improved two years later, will young people support the DPP?
According to analysis, from the perspective of political votes for this election, the total votes of the pan -green camp are about 48 %, which is 10 percentage points than pan -blue, which means that green greater than blue has become the norm of Taiwan.Under this structure, even if the youth ethnic groups do not fully support the DPP, the younger generations of Taiwanese people think that they will support the Green Party, and it is impossible to recognize the Kuomintang who is deeply plagued by pro -China image.
Analysis: More careless than the younger generation of the unified independence
However, Qiu Shiyi, an associate professor of the Department of Political Department of Donghai University, believes that interpretation of young people from a blue -green perspective is too narrow, because the younger generation cares more about the concept than the unification independence.
He pointed out that the development of Taiwan ’s social development has entered the post -material era, and young people pay more attention to higher -level human civilizations such as democracy, human rights, and same -sex marriage, so they have high doubts about mainland China, which has continued to step back in this regard.
Qiu Shiyi said that if the Kuomintang can propose a cross -strait discussion beyond the existing tables and actively promote the positive side of the mainland to advocate democracy and freedom, young people may not turn around and change the Kuomintang.
He said: Among the young people in Taiwan, there are still no lack of ideas for ideas, and people who feel disgusted with the Democratic Progressive Party elections and governance methods.
(Reporter is Lianhe Morning News Taipei special agent)
