Social Pioneer: downward pressure urges Chinas economic reform

January 2020

Two days after signing the first phase of the trade agreement with the United States, China announced last Friday that the economy had achieved a 6.1%growth rate last year.But the slowest growth rate in 30 years.China's economic growth can be maintained in the target range because the Sino -US trade war and global demand have been slightly improved at the end of last year, providing support for China's economic growth rate. Therefore, the economic growth rate in the fourth quarter has not slowed down further.The same year -on -year increased by 6%.

Ning Jizhen, director of the National Bureau of Statistics of China, warned that although the Chinese economy maintained a stable growth momentum last year, the current growth of the world's economic and trade growth is slowing, turbulent and risks, and China ’s domestic structural institutional and periodic issues are intertwined. This year's economic growthSlowing pressure is still greater.Because of this, China has once again emphasized that the economy needs to change from high -speed growth to high -quality development. This concept is inherited from the policy of supporting private enterprises and sound financial institutions to serve private enterprise systems launched in December last year.In the first phase of the Sino -US trade agreement, the United States accounted for a significant advantage, and it also urged China to accelerate the pace of economic reform.

In fact, the next day of the Sino -US trade agreement signed the day, the Chinese stock market did not have a good market for shareholders.

This shows that the first -stage trade agreement between China and the United States can meet the market's expectations of the market for China's economic development depends on whether China can implement the provisions in the agreement.The ceasefire of the trade war is temporary, and the relevant rules for the implementation of the agreement are not made public. The real challenge at the next stage of negotiations. The negotiations at this stage will touch the core of the Chinese economic system. These are the key factor in China's economic growth this year.

The latest official macro data shows that the Chinese economy has begun to stabilize at the end of last year. Therefore, the optimistic school believes that the economy will not continue to decline this year, and it is estimated that the Chinese government will further take measures to stimulate economic growth. However, because the economic growth last year was low,The pessimism predicts that the growth rate of China's economy may break six this year, further slowing to 5.9%or lower.

The growth rate of China's GDP (GDP) broke seven in 2015. The growth rates of the following three years were 6.7%, 6.8%, and 6.6%, respectively. In the fourth quarter of last year, 6.4%, 6.2%, 6%, and 6%were respectively.The situation has been showing every situation, so the possibility of breaking six this year is existing.

In view of the increase in economic downlink pressure, analysts believe that the emergence of China's economic dilemma is not easy to reverse. On the occasion of how to take the next step of Sino -US trade negotiations, simultaneously discuss and change the future economic development model.

When the trade war was further upgraded in 2019, many Chinese and foreign companies moved their factories out of China for various reasons. At the same time, Chinese manufacturers also expanded their export markets. Asiabean replaced the United States to become China's second largest trading partner last year.In the first phase of the Sino -US trade agreement, China promised to buy a large number of goods from the United States. The total import and export of goods will definitely increase throughout the year. Therefore, it is expected that the scale of China's foreign trade will change greatly this year.

However, if the first stage of the trade agreement that China and the United States have reached cannot be mutually beneficial and win -win, it cannot be fulfilled. It will not be able to change the inequality between China's imbalances in the United States and Chinese enterprises and private enterprises in the past. China will not continue to deepen the economic system to deepen the economic system.In the direction of reform, the new equivalent of China's expected economic growth, that is, simultaneous changes between the growth rate and the speed of technological progress will not occur.

As the second largest economy in the world, China is still studying, habit, and the economic and trade rules of the international community. Take the trade agreement signed with the United States as an example.Technical transfer, exchange rate, opening of financial fields, and disputes in disputes. When finding properly handling and effectively solving related issues, China must also explore how to improve the internal economic development model.

Because China has a considerable degree of global economic influence, if China and the United States cannot continue to follow the basis of equality and mutual respect, China and the United States will try to improve the trade frictions and disputes between the two countries for more than a year.It is possible to have a huge impact on China's economic prospects and the employment market, and it will also directly affect the economy of the region.

The success or failure of China's reform determines the trend of China's economy, and its spillover effect will also affect the regional economy.Singapore has been China's largest new source of foreign capital for many years, and with China as the largest trading partner and export market. We should pay attention to China's economic and reform trend.