Author: Wu Jiesheng
On January 15, US President Trump and Chinese Vice Premier Liu He signed the US -China first -stage trade agreement in the White House, and the US -China trade war was temporarily resting.The content of the agreement at this stage involves seven major items, including maintaining smart property, technical transfer, and agricultural product trade. China also promises to increase the purchase of the United States within two years, with a total of at least $ 2 billion.
This agreement was called a historic agreement by Trump, and the CCP official media claimed that it was a win -win agreement. However, the execution mechanism of the supervision agreement was doubtful and had laid the foreshadowing for the rupture of the trade agreement.
U.S. -China claims the results of satisfaction agreement
Trump claims that this agreement is the biggest agreement that anyone has seen, and believes that it will completely change the US economy.The CCP's official media and People's Daily also stated that the agreement meets the general direction of China's reform and the inherent needs of high -quality development.According to the BBC Chinese website, China signed a representative Liu He's reciprocity ... said that we have a thousand reasons to make US -China relations well, and there is no reason to damage it.
Looking at this trade agreement, there are seven major items.In terms of the protection of smart property rights, it emphasizes the importance of China's cognition to establish and implement the legal system of intellectual property rights, and will strengthen its implementation; China must not require or forced transfer technology, and cannot use technical transfer as a condition for market access;China should open US food and agricultural trade.
In terms of financial services, China promises to approve the US financial institution branches to provide securities investment fund custody services within five months, and allows US credit rating institutions, electronic payment service providers, and insurance industry to expand business to relieve foreign equity restrictions.
In addition, in terms of overall economic policies and exchange rates, China should fulfill its commitment to make a currency in the G20, and shall not make competitive depreciation and manipulate the exchange rate; China should increase to the United States within two years (to December 31, 2021) to the United States.Product procurement has a total amount of at least $ 200 billion.
In terms of execution mechanism, the most important thing is to ensure the solution of the commitment to dispute.In order to ensure the execution agreement, the US Finance Minister and the Vice Premier of the State Council discussed the discussion. The two parties established a trade framework group and evaluated and disputed to resolve the office to facilitate the implementation of the agreement.
Although this agreement can temporarily ease the US -China trade war, it is also more favorable for the re -election of the US President Trump's campaign. However, the U.S. Free Trade War has not reduced tariffs on China since the past two years. At present, the United States has accumulated a total of China 3Thousands of billions of losses in the United States shall impose punitive tariffs.What is most concerned about outside is whether China has the ability to comply with agreements and its purchasing power is still seriously questioned.
At present, the content of the execution mechanism has not been clear.Because this agreement is mainly for the United States' request for China. In view of the doubts of the CCP's poor international agreement, how can the United States ensure that the CCP's enforcement agreement commitment?The US trade representative Litticho, as usual, emphasized that it is necessary to need a strong execution mechanism with a substantial means to ensure that China complies with the first stage of commitment.
Executive mechanism will become a larger source of disputes
However, this agreement still cannot see any powerful execution mechanism. In the agreement text, the closest to the so -called execution mechanism is that if the appealing party believes that the actor's behavior is malicious, the solution is to provide a written exit notice to the appealist.Exit this agreement.
According to the official statement of the Reuters, in order to resolve the dispute to set up a strong procedure, the United States opens a executive office in both countries and is responsible for handling and reviewing complaints related to compliance. After negotiation within 90 days, punishment measures can be implemented.In other words, if China maliciously violates its commitment, the United States can only decide to withdraw from the agreement and tear the agreement.
Moreover, the agreement does not involve a standardized appeal or an additional retaliation tariff, that is, the United States is very likely to restore the additional tariffs in addition to the withdrawal agreement.According to this execution mechanism, as long as there is a difficult trade dispute, it will likely cause the United States to impose tariffs to China again, and the agreement will be ruptured.
The US trade representative Leitchizer emphasized that in order to ensure the implementation of the implementation agreement, if the Trump administration confirms the CCP's malicious losses, it will immediately claim a punitive tariff.If the accused party does not agree with the other party's measures, the only way out can only withdraw the agreement after the formal notification.There is no provision for any appeal or help for a third -party mediation.
However, compared to the US -Mexico -Canada trade agreement, it has encountered similar controversy of violations, and a third -party arbitration team has been designed to coordinate and resolve.The dispute between the US -China trade war does not have this third -party coordination mechanism.
Countless people around the world have led the first agreement of the US -China trade war. Although the senior officials of the United States and China have the joy of spending a happy New Year and going towards the new era of the content of the agreement.The execution mechanism is suspicious. The first agreement of the US -China trade war may be moved towards the failure of failure in 2020.
Strictly speaking, the US -China trade war has not actually stopped bleeding, and the possibility of all walks of life should not be overly optimistic about the upgrading of war.
