The US -China Trade Agreement affects global economic and trade

Economic Daily News

The United States and China have signed the first stage of trade agreement. The agreement is characterized by the continuous tariffs, large purchases, slight openness, and institutional reforms.The two parties still roughly maintain the scope of the past tariffs. Among them, the United States exports two -thirds of Mainland China to the United States, and about $ 30 billion in products will still maintain punitive tariffs.Tariffs are used as negotiating chips.

The U.S. tariffs have greatly reduced US trade deficits to mainland China.In 2018, the US trade deficit with China was US $ 48.5 billion, accounting for about 48%of the total US trade deficit; and in the first 11 months of 2019, it had dropped to US $ 320.8 billion, and the ratio also dropped to 41%.However, the United States is still dissatisfied. The agreement requires mainland China to increase the purchase of US $ 76.7 billion and US $ 123 billion in the United States within two years, a total of $ 2,000 billion in products.trading.China imports about 2000 billion U.S. dollars from the United States each year. Therefore, it is difficult for mainland China to grow significantly in imports in the United States to meet the standards.

As for the market opening up, it is limited to the financial service industry; in addition to China's mainland will implement the protection of smart property rights, do not force the transfer of technology, do not manipulate the exchange rate, and establish a dispute solution mechanism. They all require mainland China to improve unfair trade and carry out the reform of the economic and trade system reform.Specific measures.The US -China Trade Agreement is different from the General Free Trade Agreement (FTA).FTA usually focuses on market openness and reduces trade obstacles. In recent years, it has also emphasized that economic and trade specifications are in line with international standards.The US -China Trade Agreement focuses on the reform of the economic and trade system. It requires mainland China to comply with market functions. The government cannot interfere with the market.

The United States advocates fair trade, on the one hand, it requires the economic and trade system of mainland China to comply with the Standard of the World Trade Organization (WTO); but on the other hand, it requires mainland China to increase the purchase of the United States.The state's questioning will also further damage the WTO that has been slightly as much as possible.

In fact, there is still a murmur in the US -China trade war in the United States. It is believed that the increase in tariffs on the United States has only moved the US trade deficit to China to other countries, which has limited effects on reducing the overall trade deficit in the United States.Compared with the same period in the first 11 months of 2019, the US trade deficit with the United States decreased by about $ 62 billion, but the US overall trade deficit fell only about 12 billion US dollars.In addition, the additional tariffs will drive the price of imported products, and some of them will be passed on to domestic consumers, which can be said to be bad.

However, under the US -China trade war, the US economy remains high -end, and various data performance is bright.The United States also believes that China is the biggest threat in the United States and the main hostile opponent of the United States, not just competitors, so it generally supports a tough attitude towards China.The United States will follow the second phase of negotiations. At present, there are still issues such as government subsidies, digital trading specifications, network security, and issues such as the US supply chain mainly based on Huawei.The difficulty of negotiations in the subsequent stage will be higher.However, with the approaching US presidential election in November, Trump will make every effort to promote the second -stage trade agreement to show his ability to sanction in China.

Mainland China must improve the technical level of the industry in the future. Only technology autonomy can resist US sanctions.Mainland China also recognizes the value and importance of innovation. The strength of the United States lies in the continuous innovation of technology, the business model is constantly updated, and the brand value has also risen.To compete with the United States in the future, it is necessary to reverse the global stereotypes of low -value -added value for Chinese manufacturing, and to create Chinese brands that can lead the world in order to dominate the supply chain.Therefore, regardless of the development of the US -China trade war in the future, global competition will continue to heat up.

Taiwan and some Southeast Asian countries have successfully absorbed enterprises or orders from mainland China; Taiwan's exports to the mainland decreased, but the increase in US exports will help disperse the export market.However, due to the cooling of global prosperity, last year, my country's overall exports still showed a small decline, so it was necessary to accelerate export kinetic energy.In addition, how to make a return enterprise in Taiwan take root, rather than just moving investment in the market environment, which is also the focus of future governance.