Ming Pao News Agency

China and the United States signed the first stage of trade agreement.China has promised to increase the purchase of American goods in the next two years, which will help US President Trump to strive for re -election.For Beijing, this time it is to spend money to buy time, and insist on promoting the upgrading and transformation of economic technology at full speed according to the Chinese model.From the perspective of blocking China, the new agreement is definitely not a replica of the US -Japan Plaza agreement in the 1980s, and it cannot meet the expectations of the American eagle at all.The new agreement temporarily lift the threat of further increase in tariffs is a good thing for China and the United States and the global economy. However, there are many practical difficulties in implementation, and it can be an excuse for tearing the agreement at any time.This fragile agreement is still a big question for China and the United States to stab.

Since the start of the Sino -US trade war, Trump has repeatedly stated that it is easy to win. Now that China and the United States sign an agreement, it is of course the focus.Some people think that the majority of the agreement reflects the US request. China promised to purchase US $ 200 billion in US goods in the next two years.There are not many income, but Americans have suffered a lot of losses. The Democratic Party even criticized Trump to kneel down and failed to force China to change the development model of national subsidies and policy support. ... is the party that laughs.

The trade war is the strategy of killing the enemy for one thousand self -injury, and the interests of the two sides will inevitably be damaged.The Financial Times pointed out that the average tariffs on imported Chinese goods two years ago were 3%, while China was 8%. Now signed a ceasefire agreement, but the tariff level of both parties is still high.From the perspective of economic and trade interests, both sides are losers.

Each of the trade agreement

China is passive without suffering a lot

Looking at the agreement text, more than 80 mentioned what China should do. The United States should have only a few places, reflecting that China is a more passive party in the negotiations, but it cannot just assert that the Chinese side has suffered a lot.

First of all, the essence of the Sino -US trade war is an offensive and defensive war. If you want to determine the victory, you should see what the attacker gets and the purpose is achieved. As for the defenders, whether the thing to be guarded can be guarded.Trump launched a trade war because of the huge trade deficit between China and the United States, as well as that China is unfair in terms of technological transfer and policy subsidies.As a result, China is oversupply in science and technology and economy.For China, it is now a critical period for economic transformation. The quality of development is important. It is a general trend to rely on consumption to drive economic growth.

From the perspective of offensive and defensive warfare, Trump, as an attacker, has received some sweets in the short -term narrowing deficit, but China also keeps stable in the core interests of the development model, and the United States cannot attack for a long time.China has never acknowledged that there is a so -called mandatory technology transfer, emphasizing that you are all your love. I am willing to cooperate.China has worked hard for many years, and has laid a solid foundation for the development of high -tech development. The trade agreement stipulates that intellectual property protection protection, not forced technology transfer, etc., have little impact on China, and even benefit their own needs.Improve competitiveness.If it is said that the US -Japan Plaza agreement in the 1980s was the alliance of the city set by the United States forced Japan to force Japan to put on the road of bubble economy and collapse. This time, the Sino -US agreement is obviously not a replica of the square agreement.

Secondly, the agreement text reflects that the Chinese side is in the trend, but it is not an unequal treaty.Although the three characters in China often appear in the agreement text, the text often confirms that the United States has confirmed that the current US measures are consistent with the obligations of these clauses and the equivalent treatment, which highlights that China must ensure that the agreement is equal.More importantly, the execution of the agreement is not unilaterally described in the United States.The Sino -US trade negotiations were previously a glitter. The United States insisted on having a mechanism and supervising the Chinese side to perform the agreement. Beijing believes that the sovereignty is damaged. Now the solution to the dispute raised by the agreement is that both parties have the right to ask questions and resolve it through negotiations.

The execution of the agreement is difficult

China and the United States are showing up at any time

China is willing to buy $ 200 billion in US goods, and it is a good news for Trump, who is seeking re -election.Liu He went to the United States as the Deputy Prime Minister of the State Council instead of ... The special envoy went to the United States. Trump still respected the signing ceremony in person and signed a contract with Liu He's trade negotiating representative of the same level, reflecting that he hoped to invite voters.However, how to implement the execution agreement, there are actually many difficulties and become a major variable in the future.

For example, China agrees to purchase more than $ 30 billion in US agricultural products in the next two years. However, at the same time, it is emphasized that it is necessary to deal with the laws of the market. The US agricultural products must have price competitiveness and meet the domestic demand in China.Many people pay attention to whether China ’s market demand is really so large that it can support the purchase of so many American agricultural products; even if it can, American farmers may not be able to supply so much.If the US farmers have now invested in expanding production capacity, once two years later, China will no longer purchase additional, and American agriculture may face overcapacity.

According to the terms of the agreement, it is not difficult to exit the agreement unilaterally.In the final analysis, this first -stage trade agreement is just a suitable plan for both China and the United States. At present, Trump is most concerned about fighting for re -election. In the next half of the year, it may still be fine. HoweverChina will make more concessions. If the United States believes that there is a need, there will always be laws in the future to tear up the agreement and impose tariffs on China again. As for Beijing, it will inevitably adhere to China's development model and will not yield to the United States.The first phase of the signing of China and the United States was only temporary suspension, and the horny play was still behind.