The economic reality of Taiwan that needs to face after the DPP must face

Zhongshi Society

At the end of the Taiwan presidential election, the Democratic Progressive Party Tsai Ing -wen was selected for re -election. The Kuomintang South Korea Yu stopped to turn Kaohsiung and could not further turn over Taiwan.The election is determined by collective wisdom to determine the future of Taiwan, and of course the election results must be respected.However, we feel very worried about the future of the Taiwan economy, and the future of the people will be more difficult.The ignorant young people may have no intention to understand and don't care about the economy, but after all, they have to face the pressure of future and life. We must still ask a warning message to let them understand as much as possible; we must also let the Cai government recognize that the horizontal inverse that cannot be avoided in the future must be avoided in the future.Do well to reduce the impact, avoid causing grievances and social turmoil, and fulfill the media's responsibility.

After the second war, the Taiwan economy has gained a miracle of one of the four Asian dragons after half a century of rapid growth.After 2000, although the foundation is high and the growth has slowed down, it is still growing every year. In modern times, modern young people do not understand the foundation of the year.GDP Per Capita) Global rankings, if the price adjustment is less than 20, it is also higher than that of advanced countries such as Japan, the United Kingdom, and France.

However, the world after 2000 began to change, regional tradingism gradually replaced the trend of globalization, and countries with neighboring geographical locations cooperated with each other to exempted trade obstacles such as tariffs, which contributed to more trade and division of labor with each other.However, it is bound to exclude countries outside the region that cannot be joined.The changes in the international economic structure are seriously eroding Taiwan's economy, allowing Taiwan to grow an average annual growth, from 10%from 10%to 15 years to 2%from last year to 5 years ago.If cross -strait relations have deteriorated, the mainland continues to block Taiwan's signing of regional trade agreements, especially after RCEP and CPTPP take effect, the Taiwan economy will almost determine negative growth.

In addition to the lack of trade agreements, which causes restrictions on exports of many industries and unable to break through the stagnation of economic stagnation, Taiwan also faces young childization, aging, lack of long photos, deterioration of income distribution, increasing taxation of taxes, rising social welfare expenditures, losses for labor and health insurance, and losses of labor and health insurance.Learning differences, high entrepreneurial failure rate, stagnant salary, high unemployment rate, weak labor international mobility, reduced foreign investment, lack of energy supply, severe air pollution, etc.The short -term solution of authority is rare, and the paintings that can be stable for a long time.This victory may provide an error message for the Tsai government -the financial policy of the Cai government is affirmed and no problem. The problem will worsen the problem in the next four years and make the country enter a more dangerous state, which is incompatible.

It is even more doubtful that cross -strait relations are more opposed to Taiwan's latest public opinion. What kind of countermeasures will Beijing make Taiwan will be unpredictable.A comparative and slow response may be that the strategy of strengthening the poor Taiwan and tightening Taiwan's independence; a relatively intense response may be to stop cross -strait economic and trade cooperation, including the termination of ECFA and severely impacted the Taiwan economy to punish the Taiwanese people to the independent party.Preferences.We dare not speculate casually, whether it will really go to martial arts or similar practices; but if it really happens, the Taiwan economy will never be reunited.

Even if it is just a poor Taiwan strategy, it can probably be expected that Luke will be further tightened to allow Taiwan's tourism industry to further depression; the import of Taiwan's middle wealth will also be replaced by self -producing as soon as possible.Taiwan ’s signing of the regional trade agreement will also be further blocked, and neither RCEP or CPTPP may not be signed.With the effectiveness of the two, the export trade in the next few years is likely to continue to negatively grow, and even the economic growth rate has turned to negative value.And if ECFA terminates, it will directly impact the export of farming and fishery products to land, and the income of farmers and fishermen has declined and it has become a more heavy pressure on the government.If economic growth has stalled, reducing taxation will make the above problems more difficult to solve.

Beginning in 2013, the competitive Taiwanese businessmen in the mainland began to lose its competitiveness. Taiwan businessmen set up a factory in Dongguan and Kunshan in the town and Kunshan. They evacuated the mainland. This represents the rise of the mainland network and the smart economy.EssenceThe cross -strait economy has entered an alternative relationship from the previous complementary relationships. How to coexist with the Chinese economy should be the most difficult challenge for the Tsai government in the next four years.

The life of the people's economy and the people is another problem. Although South Korea ’s Yu was elected, the political opinion he proposed was still worthy of the attention of the Tsai government.Taiwan ’s industrial development is uneven, and the manufacturing industry’ s small and medium -sized enterprises and low -level service industries are insufficient. It requires more government assistance to avoid causing social problems.If the Tsai government can adopt its essence, it can show their minds and improve their policies, which will help solve industrial imbalances and uneven income problems.

Choosing a cross -strait party who confronts both sides of the Taiwan Strait will definitely be uphill in the next 4 years. Whether it is individual or the government, it must be clenched and Linyuan's thin way to overcome the danger.