Xu Jing: Sino -US subsequent negotiations will be more difficult

Author: Xu Jing

The world -renowned Sino -U.S. Economic and Trade Agreement has been settled, which has made the Sino -US economic and trade disputes that last two years ushered in a substantial phase to ease, and take the first step to easily and difficult.Considering that the subsequent negotiations will involve the core problems and institutional mechanisms involving the contradiction between the two parties, the second phase of the second phase of the entry into the deep water area is still a long way to go.

Several Chinese officials said that the current key is the implementation of the agreement after the signing of the agreement. Although the progress of the negotiations in the second stage is not necessarily connected with the implementation of the first stage of the agreement, if the first stage of the agreement is effectively implemented, the follow -up will be followed by follow -up.The difficult negotiations play a positive role in paving the way.In the long run, the overall situation of economic and trade relations between the two parties is still severe. The two parties still need to work hard to return to normal economic and trade relations.

The signing of the agreement does not mean that it can be relieved, and the follow -up work is far away.A Chinese official who understands the situation tells Reuters that the signing of the first phase of the agreement is a staged result, but the footsteps of the work team have not been scheduled for this.Go.

He also said that the goal of subsequent negotiations was to cancel the tariffs that have been added. At the same time, the content of the second phase of negotiations will mainly involve the core conflicts and even systems and mechanisms of both parties., But the difficulty is foreseeable.

Another official Chinese official of the nearly senior level pointed out that both sides have further eased demands.However, the difficulty of negotiation in the second stage is at least doubled, and it is not even ruled out that a series of bumps can be achieved.

Bai Ming, the deputy director of the International Market Research Institute of the International Trade Economic Cooperation Research Institute of the Ministry of Commerce, pointed out that the first phase of the agreement involving the big cakes of the two parties in the cooperation interests is more prominent, because if the two parties are hit again, no one can eat the cake on the ground.In contrast, problems involved in the second phase of the agreement will be deeper, such as state -owned enterprise problems, subsidy issues, and China's high -end manufacturing and industrial policy issues.

Citi Private Bank predicts that the second phase of China -US agreement negotiations will be very difficult. Because it focuses on non -economic levels, the impact on the market and economy will gradually decline, and corporate profits are expected.Because since the start of the free trade war, many companies have made a lot of preparations, and it can be seen from ASEAN to the Vietnamese government to suspend new projects from the U.S. import ratio to the Vietnamese government. Various enterprises have expected that the competition between China and the United States will be maintained for many years.

The Vice Premier of the State Council of China and the Chinese and American comprehensive economic dialogue Chinese leader Liu He said on Wednesday that China and the United States reached the first stage of economic and trade agreement on the basis of equality and mutual respect.After the agreement is signed, the two parties should work together to achieve implementation and achieve real results.

After the signing of the first -stage trade agreement between China and the United States, US Vice President Pence said that the discussion of the second phase of the trade agreement has begun, but he has not given further details.U.S. President Trump said that once China and the United States complete the second -stage trade agreement, he will cancel all tariffs on imported goods in China, and added that he expects that there will be no third -stage agreement.I have a tariff because, otherwise we have no cards to play.

Import of $ 2,000 billion in commodity services

According to the agreement, within two years from January 1, 2020 to December 31, 2021, China should ensure that in 2017, it should be expanded from US procurement and imported products, agricultural products, energy products and services at no less than 2000 billion U.S. dollars, a large number of imports have caused market concerns to affect China's adjustment of import quotas will affect other trading countries.

We believe that although this plan is difficult, it may still be realized, depending on the growth of China's internal demand, the opening of the service industry, and the limitations of the US's own production capacity.

He analyzed that China can expand importing agricultural products from US $ 16 billion per year, $ 15 billion to 20 billion US dollars per year, 40-50 billion U.S. dollars per year, and high-end service industries from 200 to 25 billion US dollars per year to expand imports and China.The long -term economic trends of consumption and service industry upgrades are consistent.

However, the alternative effect of imported sources may affect some trading partners in the short term, especially the country of agricultural exports, Brazil, natural gas exports, Australia, and high -end industrial product export economies, EU, and Japan and South Korea.

Even if it may have an impact in the short term, it will not have a big impact in the long run.Bai Ming analyzed that China ’s appropriate expansion of imported products is within the quota range. It belongs to the market structure adjustment of accompanying markets. Each country has its own long items, and imports should be misplaced because the Chinese market is diversified.The era of transformation must be balanced.

In response to the influence of China and the United States to reach the agricultural sector agreement and import a large number of imports of American agricultural products, Liu He, Vice Premier of the State Council of China, said that in the process of imports in large numbers, China is carried out in accordance with market principles.According to the needs of consumers, enterprises are imported according to market supply and demand relationships, and consumer inspections must be faced after importing.Therefore, overall will not affect the interests of third parties.After the above statement, the price of soybeans at the Chicago Futures Exchange (CBOT) has fallen to a monthly low.

What do you do 30 days before taking effect?

The first phase of the Sino -US economic and trade agreement will take effect 30 days after signing. Why will there be a 30 -day empty window period?Bai Ming said that 30 days is a preparation period, because the relevant enterprises involved in the agreement must have a process of re -organizing production and recalculation, and the relevant government departments also need to have a certain time to make new adjustments to the working procedure before implementing it. 30God gives you a suitable process and time, and then officially entered the right track during the effective period.

The implementation of the effect is undoubtedly the focus of attention from all parties.The above -mentioned unknown officials pointed out that if both Sino -US parties can follow the implementation of the agreement, it can effectively control the contradictions and differences between the two parties and no longer upgrade and expand.

He emphasized that if economic and trade problems can continue to improve according to the current trajectory, it will help reduce the downward pressure of the global economy. As far as the Chinese economy is concerned, the short -term economic growth momentum will be restored, which will help maintain the Chinese economy.Relatively tough.

In the view of Shao Yu, chief economist of Oriental Securities, the road to reaching a comprehensive trade agreement between China and the United States will not be flat. The keywords for competition between China and the United States are scientific and technological innovation. In this regard, conflicts may continue or even intensify.Even if China and the United States reach an agreement on trade negotiations, it cannot change the reality of competition in Sino -US competition, especially at the level of scientific and technological innovation.

He believes that the United States will closely control key technologies to China's output to China and the core technologies related to China's emerging industries in China. We may have to face reform and opening up in the face of improving the external environment.Thinking about reform and opening up in this context, any improvement of any external environment is extra points.