Social Theory January 17, 2020
US President Trump and Vice Premier of the State Council Liu He signed the first phase of the Sino -US trade agreement at 11:55 am on the 15th of Eastern time.Trump described this as an important step towards fair trade, and he also said that he would soon visit China.However, US Treasury Secretary Mnuchin said that before reaching the second -stage trade agreement in the United States and China, the United States will maintain tariffs on Chinese goods.
The United States releases goodwill before signing the relevant agreement to remove China from the list of countries manipulating the country. However, under the first phase of the agreement, although the United States cancels the total value of US $ 160 billion in Chinese mobile phones and laptops, the United States, And a 15%tariff of $ 120 billion in Chinese goods, a 25%tariff on Chinese goods increased by $ 250 billion.
Bloomberg quoted the news that people familiar with the matter. The U.S. tariffs imposed on Chinese imported goods may be retained until November 3, 2020, that is, whether the United States cuts or cancel these tariffs in the next 11 months, it will depend on BeijingWhether to follow the first stage of trade agreement.In other words, if China and the United States want to reach a comprehensive consensus on trade disputes, we must continue to negotiate and negotiate, and the implementation of the first stage of trade agreement will be the key.
Some analysts believe that the signing of the first stage of trade agreement is to concessions China, because the downlink pressure of China's economy has increased; but the consequences of the United States' pressure on China's extreme pressure, it is difficult for companies and consumers to bear itself.Sino -US trade disputes have continued. In the past year, it has brought unstable and uncertainty to the global market, and has lowered the expectations of global economic growth.
The disaster in the Sino -US game is inevitable. The two parties choose to sign the first stage of trade agreement, not to shake hands, but to take into account the overall situation and each consideration.The next stage of the negotiation of the trade agreement will be more difficult because it involves technology and network security.The United States does not plan to further reduce tariffs on Chinese goods, which is to reserve space and time for the next stage of negotiation.
The content of the first stage of trade agreement includes increased cooperation between the two countries in the protection of intellectual property rights; the opening of the two countries in the fields of banks, securities, insurance, and electronic payment, and a consensus on equal and mutually beneficial to the exchange rate issues.China ’s expansion of the purchase of US products is also included. China promises to purchase products with an additional value of about 200 billion US dollars from the United States in the next two years.
However, traders and analysts cannot understand how China digests such a huge American commodity, and will not threaten its trade relationship with other suppliers., Import such a number of American products.China has announced that it will purchase agricultural products with a total value of about 67 billion US dollars from the United States, which is more than doubled compared with the procurement volume (US $ 24.12 billion) before the start of the trade war in 2017. The American farmer is therefore very doubtful about the promise of China.China also plans to increase its large -scale purchase of American products, including $ 80 billion in manufacturing goods and $ 50 billion in energy products.
In the past two years, China and the United States have undulating economic and trade consultations, and have later expanded to political systems, ideology, regional leadership cornering power.Although the two countries have their own considerations and countermeasures during their confrontation and confrontation, it also affects the progress and results of trade negotiations.It is not easy to separate economic and trade consultations and non -trade issues. The signing of the first stage of trade agreement is only the destructive power of alleviating the trade war. There are still many areas and issues that have divergent areas this year.process.
Huawei is expected to be one of the controversial points.In May of last year, the US Department of Commerce included Huawei in the blacklist of trade on the grounds of national security, restricting merchants to supply the US -made goods to Huawei, and threatened other countries not to use Huawei 5G technology and equipment.According to a source quoted by Reuters, the U.S. government is about to announce new regulations to strengthen the blockade of Huawei to prevent merchants from providing foreign products to Huawei.
Although there are more pessimistic predictions, even if China and the United States reach the first phase of trade agreement, the relationship between the two countries will continue to deteriorate in 2020, but the signs of thawing between China and the United States' trade relations is undoubtedly good news for China and the United States and the global economy. It is also important and positive.significance.However, this extensive trade war will still be seen repeatedly. As for whether the Trump administration will consider canceling other tariffs, as part of the second -stage trading agreement, it depends on the results of the next team's team.
