Author: Chen Yang

In recent days, the upgrade of the intense relationship between the United States and Iran has kept Japan's mind.

In the early morning of the 8th local time, in order to retaliate against the U.S. Army's killing of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards, the Holy City Tourist instructor Sulemani, Iran launched two rounds of missile attacks on the US military in the Assad Air Force Base in Iraq, which has received widespread attention from the international community.

Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe said in an interview on the evening of the 8th that in order to avoid further deterioration of the situation, various diplomatic efforts will be adopted.Earlier, after Suleimani was killed by the U.S. military, Prime Minister Abe responded that this month, if various conditions permit, you want to visit the Middle East.

The United States is an important allies in Japan. Iran is a friend with 90 years of friendship with Japan. However, from the two responses before and after Prime Minister Abe, when the allies and friends are fighting, Japan has neither the courage to condemn the reckless behavior of the allies, nor does it not be or not.Dare to criticize the military operations of friends, Japan is in an embarrassing diplomatic situation between the United States and Ichida.Fortunately, Trump's statement said that he did not want to use force on the 8th, which made a hanging experience of Japan's hanging.

Diplomacy repeatedly bumps the wall

Since the end of 2012 as the Prime Minister, Abe has been focusing on development diplomatic.Looking back at the past few years, it is not difficult to find that diplomatic performance has indeed added points to the Abe regime, but since the end of last year, Abe's diplomacy has repeatedly encountered walls.

First, the large -scale riots in India had caused Prime Minister Abe to delay the visit of India, and then the Australian forest fire caused Prime Minister Morrison to cancel his visit to Japan. RecentlyViews of the country.In addition, the former chairman of Nissan Carlos Bull; Ghosn's escape also had a subtle impact on the relationship between Japan and France.

It is common for diplomatic activities or foreign affairs to be canceled due to special circumstances. After all, you can find the appropriate time to hold it. The signing of the relevant documents or cooperation agreements is only a short time.However, it is not so simple for Shinzo Abe left for less than two or two years.

For example, Prime Minister Abe visits India to persuade India to return to the regional comprehensive economic partnership Agreement (RCEP) RCEP and strengthen the implementation of the Indo -Pacific concept; see Morrison to promote the formation of the Japanese and Australian alliances;At the time of nervousness, he plays an intermediary and enhances Abe's diplomatic impact.If these diplomatic affairs can be implemented as planned, it can not only become the specific achievement of Abe's diplomacy, but also improve the support rate of the Abe regime, creating a favorable environment for the next constitutional amendment.

It is often said that diplomacy is an extension of internal affairs, but diplomatic results can fill the lack of public opinion caused by internal affairs to a certain extent. After all, the Abe regime is currently responsible for the wild party and the media due to problems such as cherry blossom viewing meeting.

The Middle East is not just the energy life line

Japan is a country with extremely scarce energy. The status of energy security in the economic system is important. For the Middle East, which is the world's energy, Japan is mainly economic cooperation. At the same time, it is supplemented by economic assistance and seeking strategic partners.Although this conflict is only between the United States and Iran, if it is out of control, there will be a great impact on Japan.

On the one hand, the turbulent situation in the Middle East will endanger the Japanese energy lifeline.

According to the 2019 Energy White Paper released by the Japanese government in June last year, Japan's imported oil from the Middle East accounted for 87.3%of the total; most of the oil imported from Japan from the Middle East passed through the Hormuz Strait.80%, much higher than 23.8%of the United States and 23.8%of OECD (European countries).

Although Japan strives to seek diversification and decentralization of energy imports, the Middle East will still be Japan's main and long -term source of oil imports.Therefore, any subtle changes in the situation in the Middle East will have a butterfly effect on Japan, which is thousands of miles away.

On the other hand, the turbulent situation in the Middle East will also affect the strategic layout of Japan.

In 2016, after Saudi Arabia proposed the 2030 vision, the Japanese government responded positively to strive to achieve the strategic docking of the country's economic development with the vision.In March 2017, during the visit of Saudi Saudi Salman's visit to Japan, the two governments of the two countries signed a series of documents such as the Japan-Saudi Vision 2030 to strengthen the cooperation between the two countries in the fields of economy, trade, technology, and medical care.Infrastructure, manufacturing and other fields invest in Saudi Arabia.

At present, the economic and trade cooperation between Japan and major countries in the Middle East has continued to advance. As of 2018, Japan has signed bilateral investment agreements with Kuwait, Iraq, Oman, Saudi Arabia, Iran, Israel and the UAE.The net has been rolled out.

Therefore, if the situation in the Middle East is unstable, the assets of Japan in the region will be seriously threatened, and the influence of Japan's hard work in the region may be destroyed.

Limited sense of existence

In the statement of President Trump on the 8th, although the US -Iranian war would not occur, economic sanctions on Iran would be more severe.This is a result of a ginseng for Japan.What is happy is that the situation in the Middle East will basically not be turbulent, and the energy imports of Japan from the region will not be threatened.Worried, how much can Japan's coordinated diplomacy play.

In June 2019, Shinzo Abe visited Iran as a prime minister in Japan for a lapse of 41 years, only to play a coordinator between the United States and Iraq. In December of the same year, Rouhani visited Japan after 19 years as a president of Iran and sought in the United States.Under economic sanctions, deepen economic and trade cooperation with Japan.Prime Minister Abe has always hoped to successfully regulate the US -Iraq relationship, and then increase the influence of Abe's diplomacy at home and abroad at home and abroad.

However, from the current situation, the coordinated diplomacy of the Abe regime has failed. The high -profile rendered Rihi special friendship and the strongest Japanese and American alliance in history have almost no practical effect., And failed to become a coordinator between the United States and Iraq, even if it is unlikely to play this role even in the future.

Looking back at the history since the war in 1945 to the present, it can be found that the Middle East policy in Japan is generally cooperated with the United States.

First of all, during the end of World War II to the first oil crisis in 1973, Japan's foreign strategic center was mainly economy and used all conditions to promote and maintain the rapid development of the Japanese economy. At this stage, Japan did not pay special attention to the Middle East issue.Generally followed the United States, and when major events occurred in the Middle East, Japan supported the United States proposal in the United Nations.

Secondly, during the first oil crisis in 1973 to the Gulf War in 1991, Japan began to participate in Middle East affairs and seek independent Middle East policy, such as the Middle East policy of the Arab country from the long period of time;Sanctions on Iran; on the issue of invasion of Afghanistan in the Soviet Union, the Japanese government proposed a comprehensive security guarantee policy policy.

In the end, since the Gulf War in 1991, Japan has adopted a balanced strategy for the Middle East, that is, to ensure the safety of Japan's energy, but also not different from the United States.Nowadays, the Abe regime has adopted a balanced strategy between the United States and Iran.

Of course, because Japan is only an economic power, not a political power, Japan plays a limited role in the Middle East issue.

For example, on the eve of the Gulf War, the Japanese government intends to avoid war through diplomatic mediation, but it has not succeeded, and has not been complained by the United States too slowly. During the war, Japan provided $ 9.9 billion in assistance and value of more than 7.8 for multi -national forces.Various equipment of 100 million US dollars, and sent the Self -Defense Force to provide logistical support.However, after the Gulf War was over, the thanked advertisement published by the Kuwait government leaked Japan alone, which may reflect that Japan's sense of existence in the Middle East is not so strong.

In the end, the author noticed that the Japanese government would send the Sea Self -Defense Force to the Middle East waters as scheduled to participate in peacekeeping, and Shinzo Abe will also visit the four Middle East in the middle of this month.

InvestigateThe name of the research on the name of the Maritime Self -Defense Force to the Middle East Sea is a decision made by Abe's cabinet in December last year by the cabinet meeting.At present, in the context of not being stable in the Middle East, there are also voices in Japan in order to terminate the Sea Self -Defense Force to the Middle East.

Although the upgrade of the US -II conflicting conflict illustrates the power of Abe's coordination of diplomacy, I believe Abe will not easily abandon the opportunity to strengthen the influence of Japanese diplomacy in the Middle East.Next, Prime Minister Abe will continue to travel between the United States and Iraq, but it will not be too frequent.And how to continue to participate and maintain Japan's sense of existence between the United States and Iraq and the influence of the Middle East, at present, there is only the only grabbing of the Maritime Self -Defense Force Mdash; MDash; after allCan't do it.