Southeast Asia: Will the Asian Security Conference be launched in China?

At the beginning of 2020, the South China Sea has frequent waves.Following Malaysia and Vietnam, Indonesia also shows a tough attitude to China on the sovereignty of the sea.

The three Asian security countries have shot one after another, and the coincidence of time is incapable of paying attention to the prospects of the South China Sea Conduct of the South China Sea, which is still negotiating in the South China Sea.

Interviewed scholars believe that this indicates that the situation in the South China Sea will continue to be turbulent. China ’s very taboo South China Sea Arbitration Case may be mentioned at the Asian Sea Conference this year.COC) negotiations are covered with shadows.

The previous week, Indonesia pointed out that under the protection of Chinese fishing vessels, under the protection of the Chinese sea tour, it entered the Indonesian exclusive economic zone (EEZ) illegal fishing in the sea area, and then protested to China with a series of actions.First summoned the Chinese ambassador to Indonesia, and then dispatched fighters to patrol in Naita. President Zoko stated that sovereignty had no room for negotiation and announced sovereignty last week.

Prior to this, Malaysia and Vietnam also had action.On December 12 last year, the Malaysian government submitted documents to the United Nations. In the mainland seas of the exclusive economic zone in the northern China Sea, the Foreign Minister Sai Fotin even criticized China ’s nine -stage statement as ridiculous.China refers to Malaysia's actions to violate Chinese sovereignty and urge the United Nations to not consider Malaysia's submission.

Vietnam has always been tough on the South China Sea issue.In November last year, when China -Vietnam's dispute over the South China Sea Water was stalemate, Ruan Guoyong, deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs of Vietnam, said that Vietnam was exploring various channels, including resorting to legal actions to resolve the South China Sea dispute with China.

The three Asianan countries have been hardened in China recently. There are other reasons for coincidence?

Mahathir's old conspiracy is deep

Zhang Mingliang, an associate professor of the Southeast Asia Research Institute of Guangzhou Jinan University, who was interviewed by Lianhe Morning Post, believes that Malaysia is the most savvy and submits to the United Nations in the continental seas of the exclusive economic zone to the United Nations.After China ’s nine -segment line, this action can cause China to have a headache, but it is in line with the appetite of some Asian nations.

As for whether Ma Guo passed whether the Sovereignty of the South China Sea sovereignty in the South China Sea before the shot, Zhang Mingliang thought it was difficult to judge, but it was certain that the time point of Malaysian Prime Minister Mahathir was very accurate.

Zhang Mingliang pointed out the two major characteristics: one is the period of China in the period of internal and external difficulties, and the other is that Vietnam served as the chairman of this year's Asian Dimetry.

China is busy dealing with the Sino -US trade war, the increase in downward pressure on the domestic economy, and several fronts of Hong Kong and Taiwan issues. It is inconvenient to react fiercely on the South China Sea issue.Among the Asianan countries, Vietnam has the deepest alertness to China. Vietnam is the chairman of the Asian Danian duty, which is equivalent to grasping the right to set the issue, which is conducive to lobbying the position of other member states to move closer to Vietnam.

Zhang Mingliang said: ASEAN (Asia Gyanan) countries are very good at the situation and situation of China's situation and situation.Even Indonesia, the eldest brother of ASEAN, has made a noise with China. Malaysia is so savvy that it is impossible to see this opportunity.Moreover, Mahathir may take the dispute over sea power as a bargain.

Scholars: Ma Yingyue Maintenance International Arbitration Court Ruling

Le HONG HIEP, a scholar at the Institute of East South Asia of the State University of Singapore, judged that several Asian metropolitan countries should not have passed before the action, but it can be seen that their basic attitude is consistent with mdash; MDASH; maintaining Hague International International;A decision of the arbitration court.

Li Honghe said that after the 2016 Hague International Arbitration Court denied the historical rights of China's nine -segment line, China responded with an attitude of unwillingness to participate and did not recognize.The exclusive economic waters that violate themselves counterattack are the main reasons for the recent heating of the South China Sea.

The prospect of negotiations for the Note Code of China Sea is not optimistic

Chinese Prime Minister Li Keqiang proposed in 2018 that he must complete the COC consultation with Asianan by the end of 2021 by the end of 2021.As the Asianiano rolling countries argued with China on the South China Sea issue, scholars believe that the prospects of the COC negotiations are not optimistic.

Li Honghe pointed out to Lianhe Zaobao that, as the chairman of the Asian Danan, although Vietnam has the advantage of leading issues, he does not want to overcome the issue of South China Sea too much, so as not to be regarded as the use of the South China Sea dispute to abduct Yajian.However, if China takes tough movements, it is believed that the country, including Vietnam, will have a strong response. One of the likely results is that the COC negotiations will be frustrated.

Zhang Mingliang also echoed this view.He infer that Yuema Vietnam may mention the ruling of the South China Sea Arbitration in this year's Asian Simpan Conference, because the relevant ruling is too beneficial to several ASEAN countries. In addition, it is necessary to respond to the construction of China in China.In the new situation, the possibility of both sides reached COC is even less likely.

Zhang Mingliang believes that the Philippine President Duterte, who has a close position, will also change his face.After Duterte came to power in the South China Sea arbitration case, it has been exchanged for some economic benefits for the Philippines, but he is on the increasingly large domestic pressure in the later stages of administration. It is estimated that he will not show weakness in the South China Sea issue.

Zhang Mingliang judged that if the relevant countries raised the arbitration case in the next year, they asked China to recognize or execute it, and at the same time strengthen law enforcement at sea. Like Indonesia, it will take fierce measures to Chinese fishing vessels, and the South China Sea will be unable to calm.But if you look optimistic, if it is just an A -Danian country unilaterally emphasized the arbitration case, China does not respond fiercely, and it will not make the 2016 diplomatic waves. The South China Sea (South China) can still be calm.

There are both calmness and unevenness, depending on how China responds.Zhang Mingliang judged that China will not adopt a tough attitude, because there is no enough capital to deal with multiple fronts, not to mention that in the past few years, China has built a solid in the South China Sea.For example, some new islands and reefs have benefited quite a lot.