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Chinese scholars judge that if China and the United States are expected to sign the first phase of trade agreement, coupled with domestic confidence enhancement and investment recovery, it is expected to provide strong support for Economic Insurance Six in 2020.
The Chinese economy faced the rare and severe situation in 2019, and its growth fell below 6%.Chinese scholars judge that if China and the United States are expected to sign the first phase of trade agreement, coupled with domestic confidence enhancement and investment recovery, it is expected to provide strong support for Economic Insurance Six in 2020.
Influenced by the China -US trade war and the adjustment of the domestic economic structure, the Chinese economy's trend was high and low last year. In the third quarter, it only increased by 6 % year -on -year.EssenceThe macroeconomic data of 2019 will be released in the middle of this month.
According to the practice, the official will officially announce the new year's economic growth goal in the government work report released in March this year.The outside world is generally expected that this year's goal will be reduced to about 6%.
A number of Chinese scholars have recently judged in a exchange activity held by the State Council Information Office on the Chinese economic situation, and 6 % are reasonable and realized goals.
Liu Shangxi, dean of the Chinese Academy of Finance Sciences, said in an interview during the event: Although there is great uncertainty, the determined factor is also expanding and enhanced.At about 6%, it may be slightly higher.
Scholars believe that the external environmental uncertainty decreases the most significant impact on the positive economy.China and the United States reached the first phase of trade agreement on December 13 last year to provide a foundation for the world economy to stand in a foothold in 2020.
Gionerkeva, president of the International Monetary Fund Organization, was expected to be signed in the first phase of the Sino -US Corporation in the middle of last month.5.8%prediction made by month.
Officially boost the confidence of private enterprises
From the perspective of China, the improvement of market confidence, especially in private sector, is expected to improve, and is also a positive factor that is beneficial to economic growth.
In 2019, Chinese private enterprises have not yet slowed down from the shadow of the country's entry into the people in 2018. They have to face multiple pressures such as deterioration of foreign trade environment and difficulty in financing, and have experienced extremely difficult experience.By the end of the year, the official sent Xinxin Pills to promise to support the development of private enterprises.This Xinpan is the opinions issued by the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China and the State Council in December last year on creating a better development environment to support the reform and development of private enterprises.
This policy of 28 new private enterprises is the first central document with the theme of private enterprise reform and development in recent years.Develop market, policy and rule of law environment.
The Central Economic Work Conference, which ended on December 12, also emphasized that it is necessary to deepen the structural reform of the financial supply side, unblock monetary policy transmission mechanisms, and better alleviate the difficulty of financing for private, small and medium -sized enterprises.
Liu Shangxi judged that the confidence of the private economy and the investment of private enterprises will slowly go up after reaching the trough and support economic growth. This is a very positive factor.
Another favorable factor in China's economy is investment recovery.Bai Zhongen, dean of the School of Economics and Management of Tsinghua University, pointed out that considering that the debt has grown too fast, China has slowed down infrastructure investment in 2017. From the previous year's double -digit growth to about 4%in 2019, the increase in infrastructure investment in 2020 increased in 2020The speed is not expected to be lower.
The official recently released the expansion of infrastructure investment signals. The Ministry of Finance of the Chinese Ministry of Finance made a part of the special debt limit of 1 trillion yuan in 2020 (RMB, the same, the same, S $ 19 billion) in November, and required all places to implement it as soon as possible to specific projects.Ensure that it can be effective in early 2020, and form an effective stretch of the economy as soon as possible.
According to statistics from Shanghai Securities Journal, only two weeks before December, Sichuan, Shandong, Guangdong and other places concentrated their efforts, and a large number of major projects started, with a total investment scale of hundreds of millions of yuan.
Internal and external risks have not dissipated
Liu Shangxi estimates that China may issue about 10 % of special bonds in 2020 to expand investment and make up the shortcomings of infrastructure, thereby stabilizing economic growth and improving the quality of life of the people.
However, the above -mentioned positive factors do not mean that economic growth in 2020 is completely optimistic, and risks in various fields at home and abroad cannot be ignored.
The Development Research Center of the State Council pointed out to the Lianhe Zhao Zhao Jinping that the external environment has improved, but it has not completely disappeared.Has trade protectionism really stop?I am afraid it is difficult to conclude.Many (the United States )'s recruitment is not useful, and it may be used.
He does not deny that Chinese companies will face more uncertainty overseas in the future.Some countries take restrictions on Chinese enterprises, including proposing science and technology to decoupling and directly restricting Chinese enterprises' innovation, which is also a great risk for Chinese enterprises to continue to grow.
The slowdown in economic growth is also worrying about employment.Last year, in addition to causing Internet companies' layoffs that have attracted much public opinion, the overall employment situation in China was stable. In the first 11 months, the new employment of Chinese cities and towns reached 12.79 million, and the annual employment goals were completed in advance.
However, the official clearly clearly sees the social risks contained in employment issues.The State Council of China issued a opinion on further doing a good job of stable employment last month, and put forward to persist in putting stabilizing employment in a more prominent position and making every effort to prevent the risk of large -scale unemployment.
Economic growth is means rather than goals
Opinions are particularly required to deal with group emergencies caused by large -scale unemployment in various regions to prevent conflicts from intensifying and expanding the situation, and show that the official is working on improving the relevant emergencies handling mechanism.
For a long time, China has always regarded a certain economic growth rate as a political indicator to measure national and local development.Some scholars believe that insignificance to protect Liu may even bring side effects.
Liu Shangxi pointed out that the understanding of economic growth should be transformed from the goal pursuing to the means and basic conditions for supporting employment, high -quality development and reform.
He said: It is necessary to maintain a certain economic growth, but the growth should be placed in the position of the means helple; hellip; as long as it has no negative impact on the current employment, reform, and transformation and upgrading, the economic growth rate is reasonable.
