Author: Dai Dongqing
The US -China is about to sign the first stage of trade agreement. The United States believes that it has historic and mandatory significance, especially for mainland China to make structural in terms of smart property, technical transfer, agricultural, financial services, currency, exchange rates, and dispute resolution.Improve and change.The United States therefore canceled the 15 ﹪ tariffs that had to be implemented in December 15, 2019, and also reduced the 150 billion -dollar goods tariffs of $ 120 billion in goods; the mainland agreed to increase 200 billion yuan in US procurement in the next two years.US dollar agricultural, manufacturing and energy products.
As the US -China Trade Agreement text has not been announced, and US trade representatives have pointed out that the time and place of senior officials in the United States and China will decide separately, so it has triggered whether the two parties will have new changes before signing the agreement.Some American scholars have pointed out that the possibility of blowing the agreement is 50 ﹪.Even so, the U.S. agricultural department has begun to make cash from the US -China trade agreement, especially the pork industry that has been hit by the income in the trade war. It also wants to use the opportunity to consume a lot of pork in the Chinese Lunar New Year to increase revenue.
As for whether the two parties will have a second phase of trade negotiations, the US trade representatives have not given a clear answer. However, the first phase of the US -China trade has reached the first phase of the agreement and has been regarded by political observers as the re -election of President Trump.Especially the American Agricultural State is a traditional support for the Republican Party. After the agreement is reached, the mainland will increase the purchase of agricultural products of US $ 40 to 50 billion in the United States each year.Within a year before the election, it was decided to reach a trade agreement with the mainland.
Especially in the process of being impeached by the U.S. Congress, although the Democratic Parliament ’s members of the United States who accounted for most advantages to impeach Trump for abuse of power and obstruct the Constitution, the impeachment case must occupy the majority of members of the Republican Parliament.Senate, two -thirds of the possibility of passing the votes in favor of the votes are low.However, in 2020 Senators will be re -elected by one -third. If public opinion tends to impeach Trump, it will not rule out that Republican lawmakers will fall in order to win, and now the trade agreement will help enhance Trump's support, and the possibility of the possibility of inversion will be greatly reduced.Essence
Since Trump took office, the New York Times has criticized a lot. After the trade agreement is reached, it has also acknowledged that this will help Trump for re -election.On the other hand, Taiwan, which is the head of the United States, is worried that the Cross -Strait Economic Cooperation Architecture Agreement (ECFA) will be signed in 2010 whether it will face the problem of termination because of no new progress after 10 years.The trade surplus has a significant impact.
Although the ECFA earlier collection list accounted for about 10 ﹪ ﹪ ﹪ 尽 尽 尽, the economic and trade development has a multiplication effect, so it cannot only look at the original proportional figures.What's more, Taiwan ’s foreign trade surplus in 2018 is about 50 billion US dollars, and its trade surplus to the mainland is 83.2 billion US dollars. If it deducts its trade surplus to the mainland, Taiwan’ s foreign trade will become a deficit of 33.2 billion US dollars.Since cross -strait trade is so important to Taiwan's foreign trade, can Taiwan not start new trade negotiations with the mainland, so that Taiwan's foreign trade can develop steadily?
Even if the United States has the issue of hegemony with the mainland, it does not prevent the US government from trying to enter the mainland market to eliminate obstacles to eliminate obstacles. Smart property rights, technical transfer, financial services, exchange rates and dispute resolution and other agreements are all on the content.Pay the way for American companies.Similarly, although Taiwan and the mainland have disputes in territorial sovereignty, this does not affect the government's commitment to finding a better development of niche for Taiwanese businessmen in the mainland market. Isn't it?Since Taiwan is the head of the US foreign policy horse, it should actually follow the practice of opening the market for the U.S. government to open up the market for US companies and develop market opportunities for Taiwanese businessmen.
(The author is an associate professor in the Department of International Affairs and Enterprise of Nanhua University)
