Thirty years ago, the disintegration of the Soviet Union meant that its powerful forces in the Middle East also collapsed.Today, with the withdrawal from the United States from the region, Russia is anxious to recapture its lost position in the region through military forces, weapons transactions, strategic partnerships and soft power deployment.However, its success was greatly overestimated.

To be sure, Russia's soft power offensive is impressive.As early as 2012, President Putin emphasized that it is necessary to expand Russia's educational and cultural influence in the world, especially in those countries with a considerable population of population or understanding Russian.At a meeting recently held in Moscow, Putin made it clear that Israel is also one of the target countries.

As part of this work, Russia has formed a federal discrete diaspora institution called the RossoTrudnichesvo, and has set up sciences and in Egypt, Jordan, Lebanon, Morocco, Syria, and Tunisia.cultural Center.In addition, it has also expanded the Arabic service of Russia (RT) today, which is an international TV news network funded by the Russian government.Today, the Russian Arabic Channel has 6.3 million audiences per month in six Arab countries including Egypt, Iraq, Jordan, Morocco, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE, and has now ranked among the most important TV networks in the Middle East.

In order to fill the vacuum left by the United States from the withdrawal from the Middle East, Russia tried to distinguish itself from the long -term hegemon of the Middle East to the arbitrator who established itself as a cultural progress, not an imperialist power.Putin announced in 2012 that export education and culture will help promote Russia's goods, services and concepts, while guns and forced implementation of the political system cannot.

This strategy has had an impact.Last year, only 35%of young Arabia (between 18 and 24 years old) regarded the United States as allies, and the ratio two years ago was as high as 63%.Although it has not exceeded the United States, 20%of respondents believe that Russia is the best friend outside the Middle East and North Africa.

However, Russia is likely to disappoint fans in the Middle East, especially as a role as regional peaceful mediation.After the failure of the peace negotiations between the United States and Afghanistan Taliban, it was also nearly 30 years after the 10 -year occupation of Afghanistan in the Soviet Union.

The Middle East, a region that caused many factors such as religion, race, politics, history, and strategy, and has consumed the efforts of foreign actors again and again.There are almost no reasons that Russia, which has never had the willingness to build a long -term peaceful construction, can mediate, not to mention the signing of the supporting peace agreement.

Russian diplomatic weaknesses are particularly significant in Syria.It used hard power to win the civil war for the dictatorship of President Assad, and it proved that the military forces were unconstrained by the restriction (Aleppo was completely destroyed), which could become the victory of changing the situation.

Russia has since fallen into Syria and Turkey, Saudi Arabia and Iran, Turkey and Kurds, and local conflicts between Israel and Iran.Although neutral policy enables Russia to maintain dialogue with all parties, it is not helpful to establish a new regional order.

At present, Syria is the only country in Russia in the Middle East.Even in Syria, it failed to give full play to its role. One important reason is that Western long -term sanctions.In addition, Russia and its partners in Syria have differences in Syria's strategic goals.Russia hopes to build a stable Syria in order to consolidate its own foothold. This is part of its overall strategy of reversing the failure of the Cold War; but Iran uses Syria as a corner fight with Israel to destroy this goal.

In addition, fundamentally, Russia faces countries with uncertain stances, and these countries are willing to cooperate with forces that provide them with optimal treatment.Taking Egypt as an example, the country has become the main buyer of Russian weapons and Russia's strategic allies in Libya.Both countries ignored the internationally recognized Ripari government and supported the Libyan National Army led by General Khalifa HAFTAR.But Egyptian President Cecil did not recognize Russia's status of the main allies, but instead used this relationship to consolidate his status in front of the United States.

Saudi Arabia must coordinate oil activities with Russia to deal with the surge in US energy output.U.S. President Trump betrayed the Kurds in Syria and undoubtedly disturbed Saudi Arabia because the Kurds have always been loyal allies in the United States like the Saudis.However, it is considered to be absurd in discarding the United States.After the withdrawal from the United States from northern Syria, Saudi Arabia agreed to bear the cost of deploying a US special team to help curb Iran, which highlights Saudi Arabia's attention to the United States' participation in the region's affairs.

Similarly, Israel, which has always attacked Iranian military facilities in Syria, has no choice but to cooperate with Russia, but it has no motivation nor to give up a unique relationship with the United States.

As for Turkey, the highest defense industry chief ISMAIL DEMIR recently announced that the country has maintained allies with Russia and the United States.The fact is that no matter how many Russian S-400 missiles are purchased, Turkey will not sacrifice its qualifications for NATO member states.

In military, the United States may be retreating from the Middle East, but it has not really left.It still has a large -scale military existence in the Gulf area and benefits from the long -term popular cultural imperialism. Russia's just soft power offensive cannot be compared with it.

Russia may be able to exert its influence indefinitely, but because its economic scale is equivalent to South Korea and its military strength is not as good as the United States, it lacks a tool to become an indisputable hegemon.When the United States decided to assume the heavy responsibility of democracy and peace again, Russia could not match it.

(The author SHLOMO BEN-AMI is the former Foreign Minister of Israel, and is now the vice chairman of the Tryo International Peace Center.) He is the tragedy of war scars and peace wounds: Israel and Arabia (Scars of War, Wounds of Peace: The Israeli-Arab tracy)

English Title: Is Russia Trip Easts New Hegemon?

Copyright: Project Syndicate, 2019.