Yu Zhi
The anti -repair campaign in Hong Kong has intensified, becoming the largest storm since the return of Hong Kong to China. Global attention has directly led to the overwhelming victory in the Pan -Civil Party Election in the 6th District Council of Hong Kong.Many observers believe that this turmoil has greatly challenged the practice of one country, two systems, reflects the inherent contradictions of the two systems, and even deeply worried about its prospects.
The author believes that the foundation of the successful implementation of one country, two systems is the strategic identity or strategic tolerance of one party in the two systems; which ingredients dominate are the main differences between Deng Xiaoping's two different interpretations of the two systems and two systems, and with the two different interpretations of the two systems.Chinese politicians are closely related to the strategic choice of mainland system reform.Several challenges encountered by the one country, two systems in reality are rooted in the lack of strategic recognition of land and Hong Kong parties caused by the strategic choice of system reform after the 1990s, as well as the lack of strategic tolerance; the future development of the two systems, the two systems, first depends onThe choice of strategic trends can restore or improve strategic identity between the two parties, if not, depend on the degree of implementation of strategic tolerance between the two parties.
two different interpretations
One country, two systems are indeed a pioneering agency. It tries to make two systems that are very different from political, economic, and social governance methods, and they are essentially very contradictory to coexist within one country.This is a very challenging task in itself.In particular, one party is not completely equal, one party is in the center and the other is located, and there is no neutral coordination and referees.The foundation of the successful implementation of one country and two systems is that the two systems are either strategic identity, that is, one party appreciates and recognition of the other party, or it can achieve strategic tolerance, that is, one party has to accept the other party.
Deng Xiaoping, the proposed person of one country, two systems, once said that at least 50 years of system, two systems, and two systems have not changed, and there is no reason to change after 50 years.Based on the specific background and the wisdom of politicians at the time, Deng Xiaoping did not explain this sentence in detail, leaving a space for future generations to interpret this sentence, but also left a difference.The core of this difference is that the two systems belong to strategic identity or have different understanding of strategic tolerance.
Many people believe that the reason why Deng proposed one country, two systems and ensuring that its 50 years remain unchanged, not only the strategy consideration of retracting Hong Kong's sovereignty, but also the strategic considerations that focus on the development of mainland China: to give full play to the role of the Eastern and West bridge in Hong Kong, not only use it not only to use itHong Kong absorbs the rich capital and advanced technologies of Western countries, and uses it to introduce excellent ingredients in the economic and political system of Western countries. It can even use Hong Kong as a pilot field for the reform of the mainland's economic and political system to promote the reform and opening up of the mainland.
The reason why Deng's proposal will not change after 50 years is that with the reform and opening up of mainland China, the system of the two parties will become more and more integrated, and eventually it will naturally move from the two systems to one system.If this understanding is correct, it means a strategic identity of the mainland for the Western economy and political system.With this strategic identity, the mainland will naturally not want to change the Hong Kong system, but will try to use Hong Kong to promote its own economic and political system reform.In this way, the two sides can naturally live in harmony.
However, not everyone understands the spirit of Deng Xiaoping's speech like this, and some people's understanding may even be the opposite.In their opinion, the proposal of one country, two systems and 50 years of unchanged promises are just the strategic plan of recovering Hong Kong's sovereignty: at that time, the strength of the mainland was not enough to attract, affect, and change Hong Kong, so it had to make strategic tolerance to Hong Kong; Hong KongAfter the return, with the development of the mainland, the mainland can gradually affect Hong Kong in all aspects, including the political system; 50 years later, Hong Kong will gradually be assimilated by the mainland, so of course, there is no need to deliberately announce the change of Hong Kong system.
According to this understanding, the mainland will only use Hong Kong to absorb the funds and technologies of Western countries, and at most draw on some components in Hong Kong and the Western economic system (the upper limit of strategic identity), and the political system for Hong Kong and the Western political system will always remain maintainedBeing vigilant, it will always beware that Hong Kong (or Western countries use Hong Kong) to carry out political infiltration of themselves, and even try to use reverse osmosis in Hong Kong, and gradually change or assimilate Hong Kong's political system.In this case, the two sides will inevitably cause friction and conflict, and the degree of conflict depends on the level of strategic tolerance of both parties.
Two strategic choices
Among the above -mentioned two different understanding of Deng Xiaoping's two systems and two systems, which one is more in line with reality, that is, strategic identity and strategic tolerance who dominate in reality depends on the strategic choice of Chinese politicians on the reform of the mainland system.The internal affairs on the mainland are closely related to the strategic direction of the mainland itself.
In the 1980s, the important feature of the reform of the Chinese mainland system was the emphasis on the reform of the economic system and the political system: not only the economic system diluted the plan color and enhanced the market color, but also the political system also canceled the life -long system of leading cadres, implemented a term system, and began to implement the party and governmentSeparate and explore the establishment of a diversified power and balance system.This actually marks the system model of the mainland in comprehensively drawing on Western countries.If you keep going in accordance with this reform idea, the first understanding of Deng Xiaoping's two systems and two systems, the first understanding of the two systems and two systems, will largely become a reality, and the strategic identity of both parties will dominate.
After experiencing the political storm in 1989, the mainland 1990The reform ideas after the age and it have changed significantly, the economic system reform has made high progress, and the political system to ensure stability is significant: it is economically proposed and implemented by the market economy system, and comprehensive reforms are carried out (although there are still great differences from the West); But politically, it is no longer emphasizing the separation of party and government, scattered power, and checks and balances. On the contrary, the trend of re -integration of the party and government and the re -centralized power of power has appeared. This trend has been particularly obvious in recent years.
Under such new reform ideas, the second understanding of Deng Xiaoping's two systems and two systems and two systems is closer to reality. The degree of strategic recognition of the mainland and Hong Kong has decreased, and strategic tolerance has become the main aspect of maintaining one country, two systems.
the root of three challenges
Since the return of Hong Kong to China, the three major frictions and conflicts between the two sides of Hong Kong and Lu, that is, the three challenges encountered by one country, two systems, occurred under this background.Insufficient sexual identity, and strategic identity failed to be well maintained.
The first is to focus on the conflict of legislation of Article 23 of the Basic Law.The people of Hong Kong believe that criticizing the political system of the mainland is part of the freedom of speech and the Hong Kong system. Some people even use Hong Kong's special status to carry out political infiltration of the mainland, trying to influence and change the political system of the mainland.
In their opinion, this is not only their mission to the country, but also the fundamental guarantee to ensure the long -term unchanged political system in Hong Kong.The influence and change of the political system of the mainland will threaten the security of the mainland. In the political context of the mainland, it is equivalent to threatening the national security of the mainland, so it must be strictly restricted through legislation.
The second is this anti -repair example storm.The root cause of this storm is that the people of Hong Kong are highly distrust of the judicial system of the mainland. Not only are they worried about the non -political illegal acts of Hong Kong people on the mainland after the revision, but they are not worried about the unjust judicial trial on the mainland.The arrests of the mainland because of criticism and opposition to the political system of the mainland are concerned that the judicial system and political control of the mainland have penetrated into Hong Kong.Therefore, in a sense, anti -repair is an extension of 23 anti -legislation.
The third is the contradiction between the dual election of the Chief Executive and the Legislative Council.This contradiction has a long history and is also one of the five major demands of the Hong Kong Pan -civilian faction in this counter -repair.The Hong Kong Pan -Minhs strive for the European and American dual -style universal elections that are completely overly controlled by the mainland.
The mainland is worried that the chief executive and Legislative Council elected such elections, tolerance and even support the opposite people who oppose the political system of the mainland, make Hong Kong a base and the base that penetrates the mainland, threatens the political system and government security of the mainland, which isNational security in mainland language context.Therefore, the mainland has resolutely opposed such universal elections, and can only accept the dual universal elections of the patriotic and love Hong Kong standards that are conditional and candidates who meet their own conditions.
Therefore, the three serious conflicts between Lu and Hong Kong since the return of Hong Kong's return is that the foundation is that the two sides lack strategic identity on the political system of the other party: on the one hand, the Hong Kong people have high disagreements to the mainland's political system; on the other handThe Western political system represented by Hong Kong also disagreed, and did not learn from the willingness of the Western political system to promote the reform of the mainland's political system. On the contrary, it remained highly vigilant about this intention.
This shows that no matter what the true meaning of Deng Xiaoping's own speech, the first premise that the first mainland will learn from the interpretation of Hong Kong and the Western political system to promote its own reform.Interpretation is closer to reality.In a sense, this is the natural result of the strategic choice of reform ideas after the 1990s in the 1990s.
In this case, the only possibility to reduce the degree of friction and conflict between the two parties is the strategic tolerance of the two parties, that is, the two parties recognize the fact that the lack of strategic identity of each other is aware that trying to force the other party may cause a fierce conflict, so the turn is turned aroundSelf -restraint, do not try to change (at least not forcibly change) the other party.But unfortunately, this strategic tolerance has not been achieved in reality.In several conflicts (especially in the last two conflicts), the positions of both parties are sharply opposed to each other, and they do not compromise each other.In this way, the one country and the two systems encountered serious realistic challenges, which was expected.
the road to future development
From the above analysis, it can be concluded that whether one country, two systems can develop steadily in the future depends on whether the two parties will recover or improve strategic identity in the future.This largely depends on China's own future strategy, depends on the strategic choice of Chinese politicians on the mainland roads, especially the political system in the future.
If strategic identity cannot be restored or improved, it can only depend on whether the strategic tolerance of both parties can be maintained.If the two sides lack strategic identity and cannot maintain strategic tolerance, it will inevitably lead to intensification of conflicts, and the road of one country, two systems will be full.
In the end, the author should specifically explain that this article aims to analyze the foundation, real challenges and future development of the implementation of one country, two systems, and judgment of value of the choice of Lu and Hong Kong.
The author is mainland China
Professor Economics
Whether a country, two systems can develop steadily in the future, first depends on whether the two parties will recover or improve strategic identity in the future.This is a large extentDepending on China's own future strategy, it depends on the strategic choice of Chinese politicians on the mainland roads, especially the political system in the future.
