(Beijing Comprehensive News) In response to whether the Chinese economy needs to be kept 6, Liu Shijin, deputy director of the Economic Committee of the National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference and former deputy director of the Development Research Center of the State Council, bluntly stated that the potential growth rate of China's economy will basically be less than 6%in the next five years.If you pursue a higher growth rate with irritating policy, Yin eats food.
According to the Beijing News, the 17th China Reform Forum hosted by the China Economic System Reform Research Association was held in Beijing the day before yesterday. Liu Shijin published a speech with a stable method in the method of reforming with a stable method with a stable method.
He said that after more than 30 years of high -speed growth in the Chinese economy, it has gradually fallen in the past ten years. This is a conversion of a growth stage, which has shifted from a high -speed growth of 10%in the past to about 5%of medium -speed growth in the future.He recently organized a team to study the problem of potential growth rate, and finally calculated that China's potential growth rate between China from 2020 and 2025 was between 5%and 6%.
The current macro policy is generally loose
Liu Shijin also pointed out that macroeconomic policies such as monetary policy and fiscal policies cannot change the potential growth rate. Only when the actual growth rate is lower than the potential growth rate, it is possible to relax the macro policy.
He further stated that the current macro policy of China is generally loose. In the past few years, in order to stabilize growth and increase leverage, the leverage has increased too quickly.Case.If the monetary policy continues to make the monetary policy more loose, try to reach the growth rate of the potential growth rate with a irritating policy, put the potential for overdraft future growth, and the economy can be supported to a high level in the short term, but in the futureA cliff -like decline or even crisis will appear.
China's economic growth in the first three quarters is 6.2%. The People's Bank of China is expected to grow by about 6.1%this year, and it may be less than 6%next year. Whether it will be guaranteed 6 is a controversial issue.
Liu Shijin emphasized the day before yesterday: The irritating policy may become a cause of a real cliff -like decline in the future. This is currently particularly vigilant.
He also pointed out that it is structural and institutional issues such as deficiency to falsehood, poor monetary policy transmission, difficulty in financing of private and small and medium -sized enterprises, and expensive financing. As a monetary policy for total policy, it is difficult to affect and change these problems.
