Luo Qingsheng: Digital RMB will threaten the US dollar hegemony

Author: Luo Qingsheng

The Federal Federation recently released a financial stability report. This report that evaluated US financial risks once every six months pointed out that: corporate debt water levels have risen and global interest rates have been in low -end adverse effects, and stable coins linked to legal currencies are rising.Potential threats.The first two were old -fashioned in the international financial field, and the latter was the first new police message to be named.China has recently pushed the blockchain, and the People's Bank of China will soon issue RMB digital currency/electronic payment (DCEP).

Stable currency threatened the dollar

The so -called stablecoin is a virtual currency with unstable price such as Bitcoin.The markets that are named after coins but have not been issued are usually regarded as speculative tools. The price is violent, and the trust of most people cannot be obtained and becomes a real payment or value storage tool.However, the virtual currency that connects assets is stable. For example, the LIBRA developed by Facebook is linked to a basket of currencies such as the US dollar, euro, yen, British and Singapore dollar.The stable coins that are linked to the legal currency and obtained the market trust will threaten the stability of the international financial system.The main reason is the superiority of its cross -border payment.There will be no differences in domestic and outside the international trade with virtual currency payments. There is no need to bind banks or not have to pay the fee, which can completely replace traditional foreign exchange transfer.For countries, this has made financial supervision forms; for the United States, it will also threaten the dominant position of the US dollar.

According to the investigation report released by the International Clenging Bank in September this year, the global foreign exchange market involved the US dollar transaction amount of 5.82 trillion US dollars, accounting for 88.3%of all transactions; while the United States can fully grasp these transactions through the Financial Telecommunications Association of Global Bank of the United States,Check out whether it violates the US trade law.It can control nearly 90 % of foreign exchange transfers worldwide, which is the basis for the United States without any national assistance, that is, it can use its trade sanctions policy.

Therefore, the United States has doubts about the emerging virtual currency, including Libra of Facebook.These financial products that use blockchain technology are different from the previous electronic transfer, and have the characteristics of decentralization and anonymity. Even if Facebook is an American company, they agree to the US government's intervention, which cannot be technically supervised.This will not only lose control in money laundering and terrorism prevention, but also shake the jurisdiction of long -arms in US trade sanctions.In July of this year, the US Congress requested Facebook to suspend its development on the grounds that LIBRA will bring a systemic risk of global financial system until Congress and regulators have completed the risk investigation and evaluation of its global financial system.

However, the United States' insistence on the US dollar hegemony also provides the incentives of the US dollar to get rid of the US dollar, and the development of digital currencies provides technical feasibility.In August of this year, the British Central Bank Governor Cani suggested that central banks from all over the world should consider creating a virtual currency to replace the US dollar's position in the global economy.In the BRICS Summit in mid -November, the BRICS Business Committee also stated that it will establish a settlement system with cryptocurrency payment among member states.Fed, which has always been conservative, also discussed in October to discuss whether to issue digital dollars to maintain the US dollar advantage.

Lu Bao 80 % Blockchain Patent

In any case, with the development of blockchain and digital currency, the US dollar hegemony position will be impacted.If the RMB DCEP is well -designed, it will have the opportunity to become a new option for international trade media.These traders are not transferred through the Bank of China Financial Telecommunications Association, which can get rid of US surveillance. If there are many users, it will shake the U.S. long -arm jurisdiction.At present, China's advantage is technology leading, and has more than 80%of the blockchain patents worldwide; and the two dilemmas in the United States is that even if the technology is comparable to LIBRA to issue green lights to fight RMB DCEP, it will also lose the dominance of the US dollar.The RMB DCEP is thrown into the international financial system, and the ripples aroused may be transformed into huge waves.

(The author is the CEO of the Taiwan International Strategic Society, Dr.)