During the trial, the trend is sharp: Chinas national strategic positioning

Trial Time

Only a country can develop a reasonable strategic planning and accurately invest in strategic investment only by clarifying its own strategic positioning to prevent waste of limited national resources and maximize output.As a major country on the international stage, China must have a clear national strategic positioning to prevent the waste of strategic resources and prevent excessive expansion, ensure its national security and gain the position of its own position on the international stage.

One of the important basis for clarifying the positioning of national strategic positioning is the geopolitical environment of the country.The geographical strategic environment of a certain country includes land area, resources and energy reserves, ethnic composition, land nature (continental/marine nature), the strength of neighboring countries, and the nature of neighboring countries.

China's basic political environment is: 1. China is a large country with a large land area, a large population, and rich resources.However, the vast territory of the west is barren, vulnerable ecological environment, and complicated ethnic composition. The east -west parts of east -west ethnic groups, the level of economic development, and the density of population are huge.This has brought about major difficulties in carrying out large -scale development, and it also puts major pressure on national policies.

3. Although China has huge resources and energy reserves, due to the large population base, the improvement of population consumption, the rapid construction speed, and the low efficiency of resources and energy, China cannot achieve the self -sufficiency of the main resources and energy.Wait for serious problems.

Third, China is a large -scale land -sea and prepared country, which is different from most modern countries, including Portugal, the Netherlands, Britain, Japan, Germany, Russia (including the Soviet Union).Spain and France, such as modern land and sea, are not the same as they are.Therefore, Robert Middot; Robert Kaplan believes that China will form a more geopolitical challenge to the United States than the Soviet Union.

Fourth, although China has a strong comprehensive national strength, it has a strong neighbor. It has South Korea and Asia, Russia in the east, Russia in the north, India in the west, Vietnam, Indonesia, and Australia in the south.China, Japan, India, and Vietnam both have historical grievances and are not very friendly. They are surrounded by American allies and partners.A total of nine countries in the world have nuclear weapons, and four of them are around China. According to statistics from the Global Firepower website, eight countries in the world's top 20 military powers are around China.China's geopolitical environment is harsh.

5. The main power of the surroundings of China, Japan is a marine power, Russia is a powerful country, and India, Vietnam, and South Korea are both land and sea.

Such a geographical environment first determines that China cannot become the world hegemony.This conclusion can be obtained from the comparison of the world hegemony of China and the United States.The capital of the US world hegemony comes from its rich resources and energy reserves. With a large amount of energy, the United States has basically realized energy -consciousness; the main strategic resources required by the United States can be from the United States and approaching, and in the United StatesThe Quarter Sphere, a quarter of Latin America within the scope of power; as an immigrant country, the United States does not exist at this stage.The strongest Canada ranked 21st in the global firepower ranking.China does not have any more than any advantages.Most of China's national energy will be used to deal with relations with neighboring countries, resolve territorial disputes, deal with domestic national contradictions, and ensure energy, resources and food security.In this case, China cannot have sufficient energy to build world hegemony; on the contrary, neighboring countries in China will use foreign countries or world hegemony to check the influence of China in East Asia.

However, China ’s huge volume and national strength, as well as the geographical strategic situation of land and sea, make China unable to be a general country or even a general country.This strategic positioning not only cannot receive the support of domestic public opinion, but also is not allowed by external conditions.According to World Bank statistics, China ’s military expenditure accounted for 1.9%of the GDP in 2018, which is at the same level as Britain and Australia. It is lower than that of Russia, the United States, India, France and other countries, and lower than the world average (2.1%).EssenceHowever, due to the large volume of China and the nature of land and sea, the United States is still locking in China as the main competitor, and the countries around China are trying to use US forces to check the influence of China's region.Faced with such strategic pressure, China must formulate a strong strategic policy to crack this strategic pressure.

China's geopolitical situation has also determined that since ancient times, China ’s most serious national security threats, basically from strong countries or tribes around the surrounding areas.When China falls into domestic or international difficulties, the surrounding powers or tribes are hoping to rob the fire and make a profit from it.From the shame of Wuhu chaos, Jingkang, Mongolia colonials to a large number of Russia's occupation of Chinese territory, motioning Xinjiang, Outer Mongolia's independence, and Japanese invasion of China, it all illustrates this basic geopolitical law.In contrast, the threats of modern Britain, France, and even the United States are dwarfed.

Based on the above three points, in order to ensure the overall and long -term security of the country, China must focus on operating China's influence in East Asia to prevent excessive and unnecessary strategic resource investment in other regions. It should also avoid the battle of world hegemony.At the same time, the ability to dominate the strategy and security pattern dominated by East Asia and Central Asia should be gradually cultivated, and China and the United States exist in East Asia, and establish a strategic and security cooperation mechanism for East and Central Asia dominated by China.If this goal cannot be achieved, China can only have the name and volume of a large country, but there is no real power; if this goal cannot be achieved, no matter how much influence China has in other regions, it will eventually be the empty tower and mirror flowers.

From the geopolitical perspective, under the premise that China's internal affairs do not have significant changes, China has many advantages that are sufficient to achieve the above strategy.There is no strong country in the northwest of western China, so even if there is serious ethnic issues in Xinjiang and Tibet, it is controllable; the north and Russia have close strategic cooperation, and Russia has a strategic demand for China's strategic demand for China. Therefore, there is no serious strategic pressure in the north.; Although India has a trend of rising and plans to eastward, India's domestic problems are serious, and Pakistan is constrained. India has no intention of challenging China's strategic position east of Myanmar.The democratic and safe diamond shape is also half -hearted, so it is also limited to the strategic pressure brought by China.

Although the strength of great countries around China, the overall country's strength is still far from China, and its strategic purposes and directions are different, which cannot form a joint force against China.Although China has some degree of contradictions with Japan, Vietnam, and India, these contradictions have not intensified to a very sharp level.Therefore, there is neither the nightmare of neighboring alliances in Germany from the 19th century to the 20th century, nor the urgent national security threat. It can maintain strategic determination, and can adopt the strategy of cutting sausage.Improve relations with neighboring countries, China and the United States' influence in East Asia, and build a China -led East Asian security strategy and security cooperation mechanism.

At the same time, from the perspective of national strength, as long as there is no serious turbulence within China, no country in the world dares to have a large -scale military conflict with China.Therefore, China can withstand greater pressure and crisis, and to withstand the edge of the war without being afraid of blackmail of external forces.On the other hand, although China should try its best to avoid military conflicts with neighboring countries, military means are still one of the strategic means that China can withstand in China's policy means.

Due to the less strategic pressure in the north, west, and southwestern side, China's land border is relatively safe. Through the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, China can also largely dominate the strategic security structure of Central Asia.The obstacles to the establishment of China -led East Asian strategic security cooperation mechanism mainly come from the Pacific West Bank and from the existing US East Asian military alliance system.Under the so -called dual -track mechanism, many countries in East Asia mainly rely on the United States in security, and their economic and trade relations with the United States are also very close.

How to neutralize the US military in East AsiaIt is the main topic of China to realize this strategy.The most important advantage of China in East Asia Compared with the United States is that China can operate in East Asia in strategic and diplomatic, while the United States needs to take into account its existence in the world.If China does not focus on East Asia in diplomatic and strategy, China ’s advantage in East Asia is very limited compared to the United States.

The strength of the United States and the diverse means of achieving strategic purpose is that it is not possible in China, and it belongs to the category of sincerity.Even if the United States actively provoke China, China should avoid direct confrontation with the United States.China can only offset the influence of China and the United States in East Asia by deepening cooperation with neighboring countries.To this end, China should weigh the relationship between the territorial claims and the construction of the East Asian strategic security system and make a choice; and the prestige of various means such as politics, economy, military, and culture has gradually become the central country of East Asian countries.The means leading the strategy and security pattern of East Asia.

Of course, in this process, the top priority is Sino -Japanese relations.How to establish a political mutual trust between China and Japan, and then solve the historical issues, territorial disputes, and marine industry issues between China and Japan.The alliance system, even the establishment of the East Asian community based on China -Japan cooperation, is the most important issue in China's diplomacy and the most severe test of China's leading East Asian strategic security mechanism.

The author is a doctoral student at the Department of Political Science at the University of Boston. He specializes in research on geopolitics and international stability, Sino -US relations, and Chinese foreign policy.This article has been published in the English Electronics Magazine of Lianhe Morning Post China (ThinkChina)