Written article: Ye Dehao

Since the attack on two oil facilities in Saudi Arabia last Saturday (September 14), the United States and Saudi Arabia ignored the Hascean Organization to recognize their responsibilities and pointed their spear heads to Iran.The Saudi Ministry of Defense disclosed relevant evidence to the media on Wednesday (September 18). His Deputy Secretary of Defense Khalid Bin Salman also hinted that the United States had a common defense of Saudi Arabia and cooperated with US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo (Mike Pompeo)It is said that the attack of the oil plant is a war behavior.

Just as the American drone was shot down earlier, Trump, who refused to conduct military operations on Iran.Although his guns have been loaded and are ready, they are ready, but in actual actions, they only require Iran to significantly increase sanctions on MDash; MDASH; the United States has almost sanctioned the entire Iranian economy today, and there is no room for sanctions.

Trump's Republican allies and senators Lindsey Graham on Monday (September 17) directly pointed out that Trump's moderate dealing with Iran has been seen as a signal of weakness by Iran.However, Trump insisted that his mildness was the manifestation of strength, and quoted the United States to enter the Iraqi trace of the country.

It can be seen that although the geopolitical situation in the Gulf area is becoming more tense, the overall war seems to be far from reality.

Whose drone?Whose cruise missile?

At a press conference on Wednesday, the Saudi Ministry of Defense spokesman Turki Al-Malki showed the media to the media, ABQAIQ and Khurais, two oil facilities and oil fields, and pointed out that they pointed outA total of 18 drones and 7 cruise missiles participated in the operation, and from the residual film, the triangle drone and the Ya-ALI cruise missile were proved from the disabled film.

Although Malgi pointed out that the attack from the north instead of Yemen, he also acknowledged that Saudi Arabia was still confirming the launching point of the weapon.His words were also very careful. He only said that the attack was unquestionable to get Iran's support, rather than directly accusing the attack on Iran, and did not rule out that the attack was a Hussean armed group supported by Iran.

Seeing attacks made 5%of the global oil output blocked, and some people even described the Pearl Harbor incident in the oil industry. The intuitive response of the outside world also questioned whether the Hussen organization who took the initiative to recognize the responsibility was able to launch such attacks.

However, according to a report released by the United Nations in January 2019, the Hussean organization has a flying distance of 1,200 to 1,500 kilometers. In June 2019, a Hussean was attacked by an airport in Saudi Arabia.It is also suspected to be the Ya-ALI cruise missile. In conjunction with the fact that the Husseam Organization has publicly displayed the facts of related weapons (more printed with the words made by Yemen) in July, if only the factors of martial arts are questioned to question the Hassas, Husseng is questioned.Organizing the true nature of responsibility is not real.

Different from the responsibility of attacks, the EU countries such as France and Germany have not followed the United States to accuse Iran immediately.Petroleum futures speculators may also be the culprit behind the scenes.

No matter what the truth is, it is undeniable that the fundamental source of this severe attack is the unilateral withdrawal from the Iranian nuclear agreement in May 2018, and an unprecedented tough sanctions on Iran's extreme pressure on Iran have caused the regional situation to become increasingly unstable.Essence

As an American allies, Saudi Arabia has always regarded Iran as an enemy, and it is quite anxious about the thawing of the US -Iraq relationship caused by the nuclear agreement.When Trump withdrew from the nuclear agreement, Saudi Arabia publicly stated that she supported that watermelon was relying on large edges. With tough assists in the United States, Iran would be convinced.Unexpectedly, Iran has plummeted more than 90 % before the sanctions before sanctions, but they refused to dismiss the nuclear agreement.The method of seizure and interference of the tanker puts pressure on the outside.

On June 20, Iranian shot down the U.S. drone, which can be regarded as a move to Trump's bottom line to test the water temperature.This time, when Iran tried to know the dragon and Feng, I saw Trump's fundamental scruples on military operations, and dared to make symbolic retaliation such as Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the highest spiritual leader of Iran.At this time, Saudi Arabia knew that it was wrong to pay the United States, but he hated it wrong. On the one hand, he had to continue to praise the United States' unprecedented confrontation against Iran, and on the other hand, he asked the international community to intervene.

Invincible war on Iranian forces

In fact, when Iran insists on stance and the United States is unwilling to relax sanctions to seek negotiations, Trump can only take one way for military operations to surrender.If the United States dares not or is unwilling to march, the most vulnerable to suffering will be the allies in its region.Local forces that are directly or indirectly supported by Iran, such as the Marcerian organization, are used to persist in their non -equivalent war, which can make Saudi and other countries panic all day.

Nowadays, weapons such as drones and cruise missiles are easy to obtain. It is almost invincible through methods such as low or high -speed flight.For example, Israel, which has a patriot's missile defense system, used a missile worth millions of dollars to shot down thousands of dollars, or even 3D printed drones, and the cost of war between the two sides was extremely different.

In addition, Saudi Arabia and other countries can be regarded as an attacker and a thousand miles for attacks from military forces such as Hussean organizations.To investigate low -fly drone invasion, there must be multiple detection mechanisms such as radar, wireless radio frequency, electro -optical effects, infrared, acoustic science.

What's more, Saudi Arabia has a small number of petroleum facilities and high importance. It is different from the highly scattered conditions of American oil wells and oil refining facilities. As long as you care about the other party, it will cause serious economic blows.

At this moment, seeing the incident of the Kashuji incident last year, Yu Bo gradually resolved, Saudi Aramco, the world's largest oil company Saudi Aramco, was planned to be listed at the end of this year.Bin Salman can continue its economic reform by reducing the country's single dependence on the oil industry.Today, as soon as the oil factory attacks come out, the outside world is shocked that the oil output of Saudi Arabia is not as stable as the original imagination, and the geographical tension in the bay area has not been solved in the short term.Essence

Saudi Arabia is the most important step in Mohammed's reform. Last year, it was suspected to be postponed due to the Kashuji incident. Now it is even more of the Iranian problem that has been given by Trump, and then frustrates the outside world's confidence in Saudi Arabia.Although Trump has never given up with Saudi Arabia in the Kashuji incident, there are teammates who have a hard -handed and soft -looking team, Muhammed at this moment.Enemies?Essence