Among various crises, the most severe is the crisis of reproduction of human beings, that is, the crisis of fertility.(Internet)
Today, humans are undoubtedly facing endless crises, and the crisis has made people full of uncertainty about the future.However, among the various crises, the most severe is the crisis of reproduction of human beings, that is, the crisis of fertility.The distribution of this crisis in various countries and regions is unbalanced.Some countries and regions are already in depth or even extreme crisis, and have shown a general trend that cannot be reversed.For these countries and regions, if the fertility crisis cannot be effectively resolved, it will become meaningless to discuss other crises or the future.
Breeding offspring is an inherent instinct.It is not difficult to understand. In terms of experience, various civilizations have various guarantees and cultural and mechanisms that are conducive to breeding offspring.Some civilizations based on religion have such explicit regulations, such as non -divorce, abortion, and non -sterilization.For them, human beings do not end the right to life given by God.China is a secular civilization, but it also has a deep cultural consciousness with a filial piety and no behind. It has been deeply rooted in people's concepts for thousands of years; not only that, like other civilizations, China has also developed a variety of society.The institutional arrangement of and culture (even from today's perspective) to ensure the continuation of fertility and family reproduction.
It can also be said that guaranteeing fertility and human reproduction is the core of various civilizations of human beings.In other words, in the long history, if humans do not protect other development mechanisms, various civilizations have the mechanism to ensure fertility and human re -production.Because of this, it also led to people's concerns about the reproduction and growth of the population. The most prominent is the theoretical theory of the population of Thomas Malthus.
4, 5, 6, 7, etc.) increased, so, in addition to natural reasons (accidents and aging), disaster (war, plague and various famines), moral restrictions and sins (including killing infants, murder, birth and homosexual)There is no other way to increase the population.
The generation of individual rights
However, the reality in modern times is just the opposite of the prediction of Marsas, at least in some countries and regions.Many changes since modern times have effectively and profoundly affect human fertility and reproduction.At least in the following aspects.
First, people -centered humanistic generation and development.The core of humanism is the concept of human rights, and the concept of human rights eventually leads to extreme individualism.In a long history, fertility is a group right, not an individual right.Although fertility is an individual, the individual cannot be the master, and the group is the master of the individual in various ways.If an individual cannot have children, there will be risk of being crowded out of the group.However, with the development of the concept of personal rights, infertility will quickly become the core right of individuals. Fertility is no longer a group choice, but only individual choices, and groups cannot interfere.
Second, the high population flow caused by industrialization and urbanization separates individuals and large families, individuals, and groups. In terms of fertility, individuals no longer carry a lot of family and social pressure.In other words, the emergence and development of the above individual rights has an objective socio -economic background.As a result, fertility is not just a change in the concept of rights, but also a reflection of objective reality changes.After the objective reality changes, the old fertility concept becomes irrelevant.Before the emergence of new concepts of fertility, the condition of fertility is difficult to change.
Use scientific and technological intervention
Third, the development of science and technology (breeding and sterilization, etc.) empowers humans. People have traditionally recaptured the rights of God to make people and control themselves in their own hands.Technology has a milestone impact on human fertility.Before this kind of technology, fertility is always in a natural state, that is, there is no intervention state, which is not related to rational calculations.But the emergence and improvement of technology, individuals can intervene in fertility independently, and fertility can appear and proceed in a plan.In some countries and regions, technology can even promote fertility group plans, such as family planning policies of some countries (such as China).
Fourth, modernization leads to excessive fertility costs.The population flow caused by industrialization and urbanization not only leads to the disappearance of traditional families, but also greatly leads to excessive fertility costs.Traditional families effectively reduce the cost of life in terms of fertility, education, and pension.With the disappearance of large families, the cost of life in all aspects has increased sharply.In the face of too high costs, even people who still have the concept of fertility have rational calculations for fertility and have planned.
People are rational and rationality is limited by age.Considering that fertility is a matter of young people, when the light people were decided for fertility, few people would consider the long -term importance of fertility.It will not sacrifice the interests in front of the long -term future.
Improving social welfare is counterproductive
Fifth, the welfare society guarantees personal life, and the carrier of life transitions from the family to the country, and the significance of the family has undergone essential changes.In terms of fertility, there is a paradox in a welfare society.On the one hand, it is precisely because of the high cost of childbirth in contemporary society that in some countries, in order to encourage people's fertility, the state tries to improve the motivation of people's fertility by improving social benefits, thereby improving the overall fertility status of the country.
But on the other hand, at the actual level, the effect is not bad, or just go to the opposite side.With the development of the welfare society, more and more people can survive by the country, and the family becomes optional.Although special fertility benefits can also be set on fertility, such special benefits are difficult to change the motivation of the fertility under the increase in overall benefits.
Sixth, capital becomes the core of modern society.Why will fertility costs so high with the development of society and the increase of wealth?The role of capital here cannot be ignored.On the one hand, capital played a liberation role, liberating people from traditional families and organizations, and became an individual, but at the same time, it turned people into slaves of capital and arbitrarily slavery them.To a large extent, the entire process of people's life today is divided by capital, which is a tool for profitable capital to make a profit.The whole process from birth to death, including education, work and life, is inseparable from capital.The saying that socially cannot afford to live, be unable to raise, live, and can't afford to die is the true reflection of capital control life.
Great capital influence
Seventh, the needs of democracy.In a democratic society, fertility is more related to the operation of democracy.Contemporary democracy is manifested as one person and one vote. This system protects all aspects of personal rights, including fertility rights.At the same time, the government also needs capital to buy votes (such as through social benefits). This fact also limits the government's intention and ability to regulate capital.In fact, the government can regulate capital's slavery status, reduce or even profitable capital to make profits in human life. However, considering the government's dependence on capital.These aspects of capital.As a result, fertility was originally the most public significance, that is, to ensure the survival and development of the group, but now it has evolved into the most private field. It is a purely personal decision and has nothing to do with the government.
Eighth, the generation and development of the LGBTQ group also affects people's sexual concepts and fertility concepts.LGBTQ is the same femaleLesbian, gay gay, bisexual, transmitter (Transgender), and people who are confused about their gender identity.Today, a strange situation is that for thousands of years, it is considered to be a normal opposite sex who does not want to get married, and it is very easy to divorce after marriage, but homosexuals are high -profile to fight for marriage.
Despite the changes in the times, these are unsatisfactory.However, these groups not only affect fertility (that is, he or her), but also profoundly affects people's sexual concepts.Sexual concepts are the prerequisite for fertility. Once sexual concepts change, fertility will not be able to talk about it.
Population aging
It is easy to see that the number of fertility rate statistics from various countries over the years is easy to see. The fertility rate is first related to the economic development level, that is, the higher the level of economic development, the lower the fertility rate; the lower the level of economic development, the higher the fertility rate, the higher the fertility rate.EssenceThe level of economic development determines people's living standards, education level, and liquidity, all of which directly affect the concept of fertility and actual fertility.
The second is related to culture (especially religion).The level of economic development affects the fertility rates under all cultures (religion), but different cultures (especially religions) have a great impact on fertility rates.In the same level of economic development, the fertility rate under some culture (religion) is higher than the fertility rate under other culture (religion).
The crisis of fertility is promoting the occurrence of many crises.Aging can be said to be a momentary crisis facing many countries.Young people have less fertility or even influence, but because of the improvement of survival conditions such as medical care, the average life expectancy of people has greatly increased, which is easily directed to the elderly of a society, making these society the country of the elderly.The elderly Congress shows some common characteristics: consumption levels have declined, the elderly (society and family) are difficult, economic atrophy, and social life energy is insufficient.
In East Asia, Japan is a model of aging society.China follows.Facing aging, small society like Singapore can also solve problems through immigrants, but large society like China is difficult to solve problems through immigrants.These society may alleviate the labor crisis by extending the use of retirement age, automation technology, robotics and artificial intelligence, but still cannot solve the crisis of fertility.
Or cause conflict and war
The internal conflict of a society is not unimaginable, that is, between the wealth group with low fertility and the bottom level of a high fertility rate.Traditionally, wealthy families are generally large families, because wealthy families have conditions to raise more children.But today, it is difficult for a wealthy family to have a large family with many children.This is because, as mentioned above, fertility has evolved into simple personal rights and choices, not the rights and choices of family (group).In rich families, the concept of rights of young people is even higher than other groups.
For the bottom of the society, some conditions facing traditional society are not conducive to fertility and raising children, such as hunger, disease, etc. At the same time) The impact is smaller than other groups, so the fertility rate of the bottom can still maintain a higher level.In these society, if the government does not have enough wealth distribution ability, the fertility rate does affect social conflicts.If there is some in -depth analysis of the popular populism, it is not difficult to see the impact of fertility factors.
Even more serious, the distribution of fertility crisis in various countries, nations, and races is extremely unbalanced.The fertility crisis of some countries, nations and races is getting deeper and deeper, and there are no effective solutions (at least so far); other countries, ethnic groups, and races not only have no crisis, but the population has experienced high growth, and it will followThe high growth of the population is also expanding in the world's space.Undoubtedly, immigrants (whether they are legal or illegal) will be from the flow of economic backward to the economic society.This is consistent with the distribution of fertility rates. Economic backward society shows a high fertility rate, while the economic developed society shows a low fertility rate.In other words, immigrants flow from a high fertility social to low fertility.
If this situation cannot be changed, will it eventually lead to conflict or even war?It can be imagined that when those countries, nations, and races with a decreased fertility rate and population shrink, they will be afraid of their own disappearance; while other countries, nations, and races with high fertility rates and population advantages will becomeStart competing and expanding living space.
If so, the possibility of conflict between the two and war will occur.Furthermore, in the historical perspective, in the era of the empire, frequent occurrences of conflicts and wars aimed at the goal of competing for land and population.But if such a situation occurs in the future, will there be a conflict and war for the population?
The crisis of fertility has brought too much uncertainty to humans.But it is certain that the future world will belong to those civilizations that are conducive to fertility, rather than those civilizations that are not conducive to fertility. The former can realize the sustainable development of human beings, while the latter will gradually disappear in various ways.
For human society full of desire, the crisis of fertility can be regarded as human self -black humor.
(The author is a professor at the East Asia Research Institute of the National University of Singapore)
The article only represents personal point of view
