Current affairs perspective
The British overseas Territory's Gibraltar government seized Iranian oil tankers for more than a month, and Iran seized the British tanker revenge.
In Yiyi wiped the wrist, Britain decided to release the boat on the 15th of this month.However, when the incident changed, the US Department of Justice once again issued an arrest warrant to the deducted Iranian oil tanker Gelei No. 1, and Grace No. 1 continued to be deducted.The reason is that the tanker helps the Islamic Revolutionary Guard to transport oil to Syria.
Prior to this, the United States ranked Islamic Revolution as a terrorist organization. The tanker was deducted by the United States with two charges: illegal export of oil and helping terrorists.The dangerous game of Iran's oil tanker was deducted, but it was just a prelude to the conflict of the Middle East.Britain, whether or not he takes the initiative to follow the United States or the United States, is just the role of the horse.
Moreover, Britain was completely hit.Britain detains Iranian tankers in violation of the European Union's ban, and Iran uses the detainee of British oil tankers as revenge.There are no more core cards in the British hands, and it can only be released.The British played, and the United States continued to deduct the boat.When the big guy shot, Britain became an embarrassing loser.Therefore, in this buckle, British characters are the most embarrassing, and have been humiliated twice by Iran and the United States.
The situation of the Persian Gulf is getting more and more severe, and the United States has completed another military deployment of the Middle Eastern War in the Persian Gulf.But Iran is not Iraq nor Syria. It is not easy to independently complete the beheading operation of Iran's quick decision independently.On the one hand, Iran has quite powerful military defense capabilities and counterattack combat power.On the other hand, Iran's anti -American mood continued to rise, which was very different from that Iraq welcomed the United States to defeat Saddam's public opinion of Iraq.
In addition, Iran has the ability to block the Strait of Holmus.Even if Iran does so, it will cause the global energy channel to block, cause disorder in the crude oil market, and form an unpredictable market conduction.Under the reality of uncertainty in the global market, Iran's countermeasures will lead to turbulent global economic turbulence.
U.S. sanctions against Iran and the city are not provoked by Iran, but due to the US withdrawal from the Iran nuclear multilateral agreement.The situation of the Persian Gulf has deteriorated and the responsibility is not in Iran and in the United States.Therefore, the US withdrawal from the Iranian nuclear agreement, the trade war to almost all trading partners, including allies, and ask for security costs for East Asia and NATO allies, etc., making the Trump administration is widely isolated globally.
The United States wants to move against Iran and cannot find the Alliance.Recently, the United States has encouraged global allies to participate in the Persian Bay escort operation, and there are few responders.The British affiliated with Brexit and the United States detained Iranian tankers, but Iran was retaliated.Britain's release of Iranian oil tankers and detained by the United States have also embarrassed Britain, which follows the United States.At that time, Prime Minister Blair followed President Bush to launch the Iraq war, and the two cloths have been criticized worldwide.Trump is going to martial arts with Iran, and American allies may be viewed on the wall.
The cost of moving to Iraq is very high.The Iraqi war not only did not achieve the democratization of Iraq, but caused the spread of lasting Middle East chaos and terrorism.The EU was deeply affected by the tide of refugees in the Middle East, and it was also the cause of Brexit in Brexit.More importantly, the United States is deeply trapped in chaos in the Middle East and consumes a lot of manpower and material resources, but loses its dominant position in the Syrian civil war.
It can be said that the Iraq war not only consumed the United States for military resources, but also lost more development opportunities in the United States.Because of this, the Obama era began to implement the Middle East strategy retracement.Trump also hopes to escape from the Syrian civil war, but directly pressure Iran, letting the United States fall into the danger of another Iraqi war.
U.S. martial arts against Iran, the United States may be trapped in the quagmire of the Middle East.The trend of strength in the United States is declining, and it has a bad relationship with the global powers. The domestic contradictions are entangled.
Whether the limit is pressure or must have a battle, a choice question in front of Trump.As far as the former is concerned, the extreme pressure on the United States is not used. Iran had shot down the U.S. drone before, and the Trump administration still did not dare to press the Iraqi war button.Iran is not afraid of the United States' Yao Wuye on the Persian Gulf, and has also sanctioned and embargoing desensitization of the United States. These intimidating methods are no wonder.In this way, the extreme pressure consumes more resources in the United States. In Iran, it seems that it is just a poverty in Guizhou donkey.If there must be a battle, Trump will bear the curse of the U.S. army for a long time in Iran.The Iraqi war has weakened the United States, and the Iranian war may be down the United States.
How to play the dangerous game of Persia Gulf?The United States continues to seize the Iranian oil tanker, and it must also grasp the proposal. If Iran implements the same revenge on the Persian Bay, it will ignite the gunpowder barrel of Persia Bay.
The author is a senior researcher at the China Chahar Society
Passenger researcher at Renmin University of China Chongyang Financial Research Institute
