Shen Rongqin: Whether it is the US -China trade war or the Japanese and Korean trade war, it will gradually decompose the global electronic industry chain. In the future, it will coexist with loose connections, and integration will become difficult.

The Japanese economy and industry saved at the beginning of this month (July 1) that the export of fluoride, light resistance and hydrogen fluoride to South Korea will be exported to South Korea.EssenceBecause these three materials are critical to manufacturing semiconductor, mobile phone screens and panels, 90 % of the fluorine -polyamide and lithography used in South Korea are from Japan. As soon as the news came out, it shocked all sectors of Korea and believed that the Japanese and Korean trade war officially started.

The Japanese and Korean trade war can be regarded as a product derived from the US -China trade war.Although Japanese officials have not stated their motivation in a public statement, according to the official news from the official, since last year, South Korea has been in the case of the levy of the job and the assets of the frozen Japanese enterprises in South Korea. The export review is Japan. Japan is Japan.Aversion action taken.

Japan mobilized the colonies in accordance with the mobilization law during World War II, and a dispute over the levy and comfort women. The Japanese government signed the Japanese and South Korean request agreement with South Korean President Park Jung Hee in 1965 to give free subsidies and low -interest loans in exchange for the Korean government to give up claim rights rights to claim claims rights.EssenceTherefore, the Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's recent moves are deemed to violate the agreement of the year, but South Korea said that the agreement does not involve personal spiritual compensation.On the WTO, the folk also launched a campaign to resist Japanese goods and the Tokyo Olympics.

In fact, not only does not collect work, but Japan and South Korea have also been disputed for comfort women and territorial disputes for a long time.In 2015, the Japanese government and South Korean President Park Geun -hye signed a 1228 comfort women agreement, which also exchanged for free subsidies for South Korea to give up claims.(Japan calls it Zhoshima), and marine explorations have caused strong dissatisfaction in Japan. This trade war began, which is a long -term controversy between the two parties.

Japan is currently only sacrificed for 90 days of export censorship, and it has not limited the DRAM industry required by South Korea in the world's number one DRAM industry.The restrictions on the optical review have shocked South Korea.Not only did Samsung Group's actual controller Li Zaiyu immediately flew to Japan to seek reconciliation, South Korean President Moon Jae -in also asked the United States for help.According to the Yonhap News Agency, Li Zaiyu has obtained the guarantee of Samsung ’s supply of Samsung’ s overseas raw factories, which can temporarily solve the urgent need; although U.S. President Trump verbally expressed his willingness to provide assistance, he has not seen specific measures.

The industrial chain can no longer ignore geopolitics

Since Wen Zaiyin took office, the pro -American policy of his former President Park Geun -hye has changed the diplomatic line of pro -China and pro -North Korea.During Park Geun -hye's tenure, in order to counter the missile defense system set by the North Korean nuclear test, Thaad, which caused strong protests in China, and launched a limited Korean order in China.To the freezing point.Until Wen Zaiyin took office, in the G20 summit in 2017, he broke the ice and reconciled, and his diplomatic turned to the Chinese tilt.In addition, Japan has repeatedly made a micro -word for South Korean companies suspected of violating the UN sanctions ban on North Korean transactions, and believes that there is a risk of flowing key technologies to North Korea.At the time of the US -China trade war, Wen Zaiyin's pro -China policy has become a breakthrough of the American Anti -China camp. Therefore, two days after the end of this year's G20 meeting, Japan launched a trade war in South Korea.The response was not positive. Perhaps Shinzo Abe had greeted Trump before, and retaliated against South Korea under the acquiescence of the United States.

Japan's export censorship for South Korea is only a small test. In the future, if the embargo is really taken and the scope is extended to DRAM and NAND FLASH memory, it will cause real fatal damage to South Korea.EssenceHowever, the carefulness of Japan's retaliation also reflected the dilemma of the trade war.Although Japan can restrain South Korea’s huge downstream industries with a few upstream key materials due to technology leading, but whether it is semiconductor or panel's industrial correlation is very high.The information electronics and communication industries including the United States, Japan and China will be damaged.

And if the Japanese and Korean trade war is completely regarded as the continuation of the US -China trade war, it is not true, ignoring the evolution of the international order after Trump took office.After World War II, the United Nations (UN), the International Monetary Fund (IMF), and even the General Agreement of Tariffs and Trade (GATT) established by the United Nations (IMF) to the later WTOs, the purpose of providing a mechanism for establishing rules and resolving disputes to establish international order to establish international order.EssenceThe international order has the characteristics of public products, that is, due to the tendency of a stool. If it is simply a cost -effective ratio, the average benefit ratio of small countries is higher than that of a large country.The benefits of bilateral protocols can obtain more than multilateral protocols, so the international order of the voluntary foundation has improved the overall international benefits.

The problem is that Trump often calculates the money that the United States has borne in NATO (NATO) or the US -Japanese Agreement from the perspective of businessmen.EssenceThe vacuum generated by such international order means that more disputes between medium -sized countries may occur. If the Japanese and Korean trade war expands, the United States may spend greater cost in the future to rebuild international order.For example, the United States has established the industrial chain order that Japan, South Korea and Taiwan have cooperated with each other, which makes the international movement of individual products that does not hinder the overall efficiency.From the perspective of individual enterprises and countries, there has been shocking changes, but it does not prevent the overall production efficiency of the industry; once the industrial chain of Japan and South Korea breaks down, it will force individual countries to increase the degree of self -sufficiency and decentralized procurement risks, so that the overall overallThe efficiency and innovation are reduced, which is why the geopolitics cannot be ignored when considering the industrial chain.

It can be seen that whether it is the US -China trade war or the Japan -Korea trade war, the world value chain will gradually decide.In fact, since the beginning of the trade war in China, the purpose is to allow some activities in the production chain. Even if they cannot return to the United States, they must gradually leave China, which has gradually decoupled the value chain of the original division of labor between the two countries.Later, it was included that China banned the use of the regulations on the use of Sino -foreign joint venture business enterprise laws and technology import and export management regulations such as the transfer of foreign technology transfer, the establishment of Entity list, punishment for enterprises such as HuaweiMeasures such as the entity list not only increase the trade obstacles, but also limited the process of technical exchanges with each other and strengthening the decoustal value chain of both parties.

Survival strategy of loose connection

In fact, the globalization of the past forty years has made the value chain of the United States and China staggered and the benefits overlap, which is very different from the barriers in the Cold War of the United States and the Soviet Union in the past.And although the United States' innovation capabilities are alone, but Chinese manufacturers have developed excellent production capabilities. This kind of resources and capabilities take time accumulation, and it is difficult for other countries to replace them in a short time, so it is impossible for both parties to decompose.

Even in the past, Chinese companies used the joint venture law forced technology to transfer, and foreign companies were not without countermeasures.For example, the study of Minyuan ZHAO found that when the intellectual property protection of the local owner is low, the foreign company will use vertical integration to avoid technical leakage; when vertical integration is not allowed to be a joint venture law, foreign companies will try their best to try the value chain of complementary assets.Staying in the country, for example, to keep some key R & D in the mother country, to avoid technological leakage and profit dissipation, which affects the geographical distribution and integration of the value chain.

Therefore, even though the trade war from the US -China trade to the Japan -Korea trade war, the value chain of the two major camps in the United States and China is gradually decoupled, but in the end, it will not really evolve into two camps with completely decourse, but the loosening link (Loosly Coupled) The way to coexist, that is, both parties will have their own professionalismThe development of a few ecology of linking and sharing, but external and internal systems will be more fragmented, integration becomes more difficult than before. The country and enterprises need more resources and develop different leadership, adaptation and organizational strategies.Because of this, relevant countries or enterprises must not only spend more resources, invest in two different camps, develop their own exclusive machinery and manpower capital, and adapt to the professionalization of each other's value chain.It is necessary to establish a specific isolation mechanism to ensure that the technical exchanges between the two parties are connected and acceptable to each other. These will become a new challenge for the future value chain.

(The author is an associate professor at the Department of Management of the University of York, Canada. This article only represents the author's point of view. Responsible for the mailbox: [email protected])