Ye Shengzhou: The leaders of the United States and North Korea have a common door mdash; mdash; security.They also have the common motivation and countermeasures of the door to protect the door mdash; mdash; the extreme desire for power.
Democratic country leaders in the United States and its eyes in the eyes of North Korea have a common door?IntersectionFrom the outbreak of the Korean War in June 1950 to the President of Obama from Obama in January 2017, it was absolutely incredible, but now it is objective.
This cover is safe, that is, personal security and family security.The difference is that the severity is serious. Kim Jong -un's loss of security means death, and Trump's loss of security means prison.Old confused and small rockets are seriously worried. They are embarrassed and old, and they are also appropriate. They also have common motivations and countermeasures to maintain the door: extreme desire for power.
Kim Jong -un forcibly supports the nuclear guardian world
North Korea, which is governed by the three generations of Kim, belongs to alternatives even in socialist countries.It is not the world of the world, but the family world, or the family world packaged by the party world.
There is no equal comrade relationship between the Politburo of the Labor Party, but the strict relationship between the upper and lower master and servant.In the eyes of the three generations of Jin's, it is said that the euphemism is a family member, and the straightforwardness is the slave.
In North Korea, Kim Il Sung's birthday is the Sun Festival, and Kim Jong Il's birthday is the Bright Star Festival, which are designated as a national anniversary.South Korean media reported that Kim Jong -un's birthday consideration is the Galaxy Festival. Although it is not officially named and implemented at present, it is only a matter of time as a national anniversary.
North Korea ’s propaganda machine has almost no additional admiration for the three generations of Kim.For example, on July 8th, Cui Longhai's 25th anniversary of the death of Comrade Kim Il Sung to the Central Memorial Conference to mourn, and praised Kim Il Sung as the sun, the ancestor of the Socialist North Korea, the North Korean Labor Party and the People's Eternal Messenging in the hearts of the people of the world.Leaders; Relevant reports from the North Korean Society also praised Kim Il Sung as the outstanding saints and nation -loving father of the 20th century.
The power of Jin's power is hereditary, and the power of power is the root of life. It is not allowed to shake inside and outside, let alone foreign interference.In 1956, the Chinese People's Volunteer Army was stationed in North Korea. Jin Ri became the highest power to consolidate himself.The Communist Party and the Communist Party of China arranged members of the Politburo, Mi Gaoyang and Peng Dehuai, and went to Pyongyang to interfere with a strong intervention.In North Korea's political vocabulary, critical generalism generally points to China, and criticismism generally points to the Soviet Union.
The Confucian cultural circle is named.In order to highlight the sacredness and purity of the Baotou Mountain bloodline, North Korea deliberately did it.In the name of Kim Jong Il and his father Kim Il Sung, there are common words; in the names of Kim Jong -un, Kim, and Kim and Sister Kim Jong Il, there are common words.Based on this naming law, it is predicted that Kim Jong -un, especially the son of his children in the future, has a probability that there is a common word.
The forced to support the nuclear in North Korea is not the success of Kim Jong -un alone, but the national policy of his grandfather and his father, but it is realized in the hands of Kim Jong -un, and he has surpassed the beauty and delay.The three generations of Jin's firm nuclear support stems from the instinct to personal safety, family safety, and political danger.This is not only the starting point of Kim Jong -un's consideration of all major issues, but also the front conditions for discussing and solving the nuclear issue.
The United States knows this, regardless of whether it is legitimate or not, respectfully, and repeatedly stated that the United States has no intention of replacing the North Korean regime.The subtext is the long -term governance of Kim Jong -un.For example, the elder brother Kim Jong -un, Kim Jong -nam, was murdered by chemical weapons at the Kuala Lumpur International Airport in Malaysia. Is there any severe sanctions in the United States of human rights guards?On the contrary, Trump said that Kim Jong -un was a fragrant, claiming that the relationship between the two was very good.
Kim Jong -un is less than 28 years old, and he has a shallow roots. He deliberately imitates his grandfather in both hairstyles and body shape. He quickly increases fertilizer for tens of pounds in the short term and continues to this day. It will inevitably pay a heavy health price.He will make artificially create fear and calm his inner fear, such as to consolidate the highest power, replace senior cadres and senior generals more diligent than changing nanny.At the funeral of Kim Jong Il's funeral, the seventh old man had no good end, including the executing uncle Kim Jong -un, Zhang Chengze.Even Cui Longhai, a member of the senior Politburo Standing Committee and now the second leader of North Korea, has been degraded and reinstated.
North Korea has already owned the nuclear state into the constitution.On April 13, 2012, the preface of the fifth meeting of the 12th Supreme People's Conference of North Korea showed that Comrade Kim Jong Il made our motherland into an undefeated political ideological power, nuclear national, and invincible military powers.EssenceOn April 11, 2019, the first session of the 14th Supreme People's Conference of North Korea was restored the constitution again, but this sentence still retained in the preface.
Of course, nuclear ownership countries are the customary definition of domestic law in North Korea and do not have the legitimacy of international law.Article 9, paragraph 3 of the non -diffusion nuclear weapon Treaty of the 189 countries, clearly define the country with nuclear weapons: a nuclear weapon country referred to in this treaty refers to the manufacture and exploded nuclear weapons or other nuclear explosions before the first January 1967, 1967Device countries.In fact, only the security of the Security Council has the privilege of the five Changchang.The United States, China, and Russia have never acknowledged that North Korea is a nuclear weapon country.
Tong Russia's investigation and derivation of more legal risks
On March 24th, the U.S. Department of Justice Mueltong's Special Prosecutor Muller's Russian investigation report and its statement did not completely wash Trump's innocence, but brought greater security hazards to Trump's family to popularize his family.
Mueller's report and statement clearly show that the following four core positions: First, there is sufficient evidence to indicate that Russia intervenes in the US election in 2016, so 26 Russian citizens (of which at least 12 are Russian intelligence officials); second, there is no conclusive evidenceIt shows that Trump and their teams are in the Russian rebellion, and there is no conclusive evidence to be completely sinned, leaving suspense; 3. There is sufficient evidence to indicate that members of the Trump team are suspected of other crimes, such as obstructing judicial, pseudo -testimonial (lying to Congress or FBI), and FBI, and FBI, and the FBI, and the FBI.During the campaign, I violated financial regulations, tax evasion, etc., so they sued 6 Trump consultants (5 of them have pleaded guilty);Trump himself suspected of other criminal evidence that he could only impeach according to the channels stipulated in the Constitution, and he could not directly prosecute criminal prosecution.
For two or three decades in politics, all have been practicing adult essence.The Democrats who hated him are smart enough. Trump and his legal adviser also knew that it was clear that Tong Russia had no life and death, and Trump was not completely over.
The Speaker of the House Democratic Party, Pelosi and Trump, have made it clear that they do not support immediately impeachment. They do not want to do it, but to be clear: 1. The existing impeachment evidence is not enough, not enough to launch the parliamentary impeachment procedure, and it is not enough to knock down Trump TrumpSecond, the Republican Party has the majority of the Senate, unless it is grasped with felony evidence such as Trump's ordinary Russian rebels, and will not pass the impeachment case with 2/3 absolute majority;Let the country be ashamed and social division and opposition; 4. Trump's main supporters are mostly populist. If the impeachment is unsuccessful, it will directly damage the Democratic Party's 2020 presidential election.
On July 11, the Judicial Committee of the House of Representatives of the House of Representatives issued a subpoena to Trump's son -in -law Kushner, former judicial minister Sesenus, former Deputy Minister of Justice Rosenstein, and former White House Chief of Staff Kelly, which issued a subpoena.Investigation by judicial.Trump expressed strong dissatisfaction on Twitter that day, accusing the Democrats of endless.On July 17, the House of Representatives controlled by the Democratic Party rejected the absolute advantage of 95 votes to Trump's impeachment proposal with 332 votes.On July 24th, Mueller, who has resigned, will attend a hearing of the House of Representatives and the Intelligence Council of the House of Representatives and the Intelligence Committee.
The Democratic Party has such political and procedures, and its strategy is obvious: not rushing to impeach, do not directly start with Trump; point to the core layer of the Trump team (son -in -law, consultant, former minister, etc.), continue to dig pit to find evidence; patiencelyLooking for and expanding the results of the war, patiently waiting for Trump to popularize his family and team to make fatal errors.The House of Representatives has the right to summon and investigate, and constantly opens the hearingYes, if you are summoned, if you do n’t go, you will despise the parliament. If you go to cover up the truth, you will inevitably leave flaws. Even for the pseudo -proven of the lie, you have to use more lies to cover up the previous lies.Go or not, they will be in a dilemma.
From the judgment of existing facts and evidence, Trump has not enriched his family's political experience. Before the victory, he had public contact with Russian officials.The topic is responsible for monitoring FBI recording of foreign embassies and consulates in the United States.In the statement, Trump also defaults that someone gave the black material of competitors Hillary, even if it was Russia, how could it not be exposed and used?
Trump urgently re -elected himself and his family
The biggest variable of the current international order is the United States, which is rising from the right -wing forces; the largest variable in the United States is undoubtedly the most uncertain President Trump.He did not have a clear concept of governing the country. He was good at destroying an old world and old order, but was negligible to build a new world and new order.Applying the popular language of the Chinese Cultural Revolution is that rebellion is reasonable and revolution (destruction) is innocent.
Trump's 2016 presidential election win was an accident. He has long struggled at the bottom of the United States and was extremely dissatisfied with the status quo and elites.He did not have enough preparations for winning the election, insufficient talent reserves, and there was no list of cabinet shadow ministers at all, and he was not in place for a long time.
He is both an economic master and a political amateur.On the one hand, it is good to fight and win the trading art of extreme pressure and zero -harmony games.After I die, regard you to the flood?On the other hand, there is a morbid desire for power and concentric lamps, bringing business rules into international relations, and blessing with the strength of the only superpowers, which seriously impacts the international political and economic order established and led after World War II.Genery Pannong, the extremely right -wing godfather, was evaluated as an 11 -year -old child. At that time, the Secretary of State Tillerson was evaluated as an idiot. On July 10th, the British Ambassador to the United States Daroque, who was forced to resign, was evaluated as incompetent.
The United States is prioritized to make the United States great again, and keep the United States great. Trump shouts these election slogans to a sharpness. It may not be his true will, let alone his original intention.He is more willing to put the interests of individuals and family on national interests, and put short -term interests above long -term interests, and put economic interests to universal values.
The weight of this cute businessman in the business world is very clear: first, the family, the second, the family, and the United States again.He strives to maintain the basic public opinion. He may not really care about white, blue -collar workers and farmers at the bottom of the United States.The firm support of these people gave him the confidence and strength of fighting against political opponents, but they are tools for realizing their personal and family interests, not the object of loyalty to serve loyalty.
It is not difficult to judge today that Trump and his family have huge hidden dangers of criminal responsibility, especially after he leaves office.He would not give up, let alone surrender. Former Brazilian President Lula and former South Korean President Park Geun -hye was a lesson.The step -by -step approaching legal risks and the entanglement of political opponents have prompted him to urgently need to use the presidential exemption to protect himself, use the president's pardon to protect his son and son -in -law, avoid criminal prosecution, and further be convicted by criminal.
Therefore, he was more eager to serve as president in 2020 than in 2016. He not only defended the reputation of the family, but also defended the freedom of himself and his family.If the safety factor is not enough, then he will do everything possible to help his daughter Ivanka to the president's throne and continue to exercise the presidential exemption and pardon right.At the G20 Osaka Summit and Panmunjom Tetan in June, Ivanka has repeatedly appeared at the Head of state summit, and together with the Secretary of State Pompeo on the US military base in South Korea.Rate and popularity.
At present, Trump has successfully abducted the Republican Party as one party party, and the support rate within the party is about 88%, and anyone else does not have challenging strength.Although the Republican Systems was dissatisfied with him, he could only follow or even please him in order to win in order to win.His national support rate is about 42%, although not less than half, but it is very stable.According to the latest joint polls released by the US NBC and Wall Street Journal on July 14, the former Democratic Party Vice President Biden (52%) led Trump (41%) 9 percentage points.
This does not mean that Biden has an absolute advantage in Trump, and there are still great variables.Because: 1. The president who is re -elected has greater power, resources and advantages, and it is more likely to produce political achievements.The indirect election system is very beneficial to Trump.In the 2016 election, Trump's national votes were 3.05 million less than Hillary, but the election votes were 74 more and successfully won the election.
The trick is that Hillary's large election votes are wasted in the overlapping states such as California and other states, and the constant election votes of each state cannot be increased. Trump has won the key five or six swing states. The total number of elections is far behind.However, the number of votes in the election leads the president as expected.This election strategy must be repeated in the 2020 election.
Based on the above analysis of Trump's personality characteristics and re -responsive motivation, the author predicts: Regardless of the Sino -US trade war, or the Nuclear Nuclear and Iraqi nuclear, the third quarter of 2020 is the key window period.
As far as the Sino -US trade war is concerned, a high probability of signing agreement in the second half of this year.The most likely time and place is: APEC Summit held in Santiago, Chile from November 16th to 17th, 2019.China values equality and dignity, and is unwilling to go to the alliance under the signing of the city in Washington or Haihu Manor. Both parties to the signing agreement of multilateral diplomatic occasions can accept it; Trump needs this huge political achievement to stimulate the US economy, and it takes 3-6 months to reflect through statistics.In the second and third quarters of next year, the economy is beautiful.
As far as the Nuclear and Iraqi cores are concerned, if the public opinion support rate is more than half, then Trump is not in a hurry, and the patience is slowly consumed with Iran and North Korea; if the support rate is still behind the next year, or the main data of the US economy is bad, then the main data of the US economy is bad, thenUnder the giant pressure that must be re -elected, he will take the initiative to change and shift the focus.Or find a disappear to Iran, or concession to reach the North Korean nuclear agreement. Both international political affairs are likely to occur in the third quarter of 2020.
(Note: The author is an independent commentator, WeChat public account ID: sswysp.)
