Why make us more and more anxious?

Chen Jibing: How much authentic benefits did technological progress bring us?Or are we just gained some illustrations in busyness and changes?

China is a hurry.

This is the chairman of Google Eric Bull; Schmidt said in a forum held in China more than two years ago, this sentence must have resonated a lot.However, what I am more and more affirmed now is: Hurrying is not unique to China. It is the fate of our time. China just meets it earlier because of some chances.But don't say that the United States, which is in a hurry, even if it looks like a quiet, carefree European and Japanese society, I am afraid that they can't escape the rush fate after all.

This is mainly caused by technological progress.

In the history of the world, there are few eras like today to experience a sense of speed of a thousand miles everywhere. I guess that the scientific revolution and the industrial revolution era of 200-300 years ago could not look at the backbone of today.It is not to say that the breadth and depth of scientific and technological progress at that time were not as good as today, but at that time, regardless of Newton's mechanics or Watt's steam engine, people who knew or affected by them were minimal.

Today, everyone is tied to this high -speed train.I sometimes think of the first big and heavy mobile phone as a brick 25 years ago, or the first Internet network network that needs to be dialed by the phone 20 years ago.There are very few atmosphere.Now, any takeaway brother who is less than half of my degree is better than me.

However, why do you give us so many welfare benefits that have been given us so much, but still people are still worried about the future?And there are more and more people like such people.Among them, the weakness and fear of the out of control of technological progress are generally filled, and there are quite a few people who are still accumulating a high -speed train (in or possible) that the technological progress and social changes.Well.

Is this the old -fashioned nostalgicism and the haze of the old -fashioned and worrying of the world in every era and society?Will it automatically disappear, or is it worthy of serious response?

Some people pay attention to the grand problems of human survival status. Some people pay attention earlier than most people.In late June, Luo Hantang, initiated by Alibaba, held an annual meeting of the 2019 Annual Meeting. This is an open research institution.Ten Economy Questions:

1. Balance of benefits and challenges (Should we control the risk first, or welcome digital technology first?);

2. Inclusion and sustainable growth (digital technology will expand the gap, or will the world level flat?);

3. Job, work and income distribution (Who is the data? Who is the real beneficiary?);

4. Data, privacy and security (digital technology will make more people unemployed, or will work time shorter?);

5. Cooperation and organization (who is the beneficiary of the platform economy, is it all participants or a small number of platform companies?);

6. Governance and supervision (How can the governance mechanism change to adapt to the digital age?);

7. Digital inclusive finance (Calls services are becoming more and more civilian, will it cause more risks?);

8. International Digital Cooperation (Will the Globalization of the Digital Era?);

9. Cognitive and learning (Should artificial intelligence be a moral outlook?);

10. Technical ethics and responsibilities (will large computing power and big data make us closer to the truth?).

The ten major problems have a wide range and have sufficient targetedness. They use the words of partial technique. Probably this is more in line with the positioning of the questioner's self -identity.I think that if you make further sorting and use more humanistic and social words to describe it, they can be roughly summarized as three to four major issues. They also represent the current people.Digital technology) The complicated mentality of refusal to refuse to be held in progress:

The first question is: worry about direct disaster consequences that may cause technological progress to get out of control.

The panic of artificial intelligence prospects is the most concentrated manifestation of this problem.With the continuous improvement and deepening of artificial intelligence self -learning ability, will there be such a critical point mdash; mdash; after that, artificial intelligence will suddenly obtain independent self -awareness and even emotion, becoming a masterpiece of unlimited abilityThe new rulers, so that our human beings are brought into the terrible hacker empire that has repeatedly depicted in Hollywood blockbusters?

If the above Frankenstein's picture is still a bit too sci -fi, then the attempt of creating newcomers through genetic transformation has taken the historic first step over the critical point last year, and it also happened in China.On November 26, 2018, He Jiankui, an associate professor at Southern University of Science and Technology, announced that a pair of gene -edited babies named Lulu and Nana were born healthy.His team modified the gene of the twin baby girls, so that they had natural immunity to AIDS virus after birth.This news set off a stir, shaking China and the entire world.Many people are convinced that with the first step, there will be a second step. In the future, the emergence of superhumans modified by genes will be the trend of existing ethics and laws that cannot be blocked.And what does it mean for the entire human fate?We don't dare to imagine now.

The tragic future of sci -fi rendering in Hollywood has always been easily impressed by ordinary people, but serious thinkers pay more attention to the second question: Will technological progress cause the expansion and solidification of the gap between people (gap)?

Globalization has carried out this stigma, and it seems that technological progress seems to be difficult to eliminate the crime of exacerbating the gap between the rich and the poor.According to the current trend that has been clearly visible, artificial intelligence will fill a lot of labor positions that do not require too much creativity in the near future, especially low -end white -collar positions.For example, hotels, business buildings, banks, telecommunications and various window industries, office clerks, accounting, cashier, audit, school pairing, and even ordinary outpatient doctors responsible for daily drugs, some ordinary scenes of advertising and film industry, etc.hellip;

In the modern economy, these service industries are equivalent to the labor -intensive type in the manufacturing industry, which absorbs a large number of employment.Once these positions are replaced by big data, algorithms and robots, there will be a large number of unemployment population in the society.The newly born posts are limited to narrow technology fields such as programming, and it is impossible to absorb them all.

Based on this judgment, one of my friends often say that he believes that the future society will be highly polarized: 20%of elite people, distributed in the field of politics, business, technology, and cultural, controlling the resources and resources of the whole societyThe right to speak; 20%of the population is engaged in various complex work that cannot be replaced by machines, especially for composite physical labor. Their income may not be low, but there is no right to speak; 60%of the remaining 60%of the remaining; 60%of the remaining 60%of the remaining; 60%of the remaining 60%of the remaining; 60%of the remaining 60%of the remaining; 60%of the remaining 60%of the remaining; 60%of the remaining 60%of the remaining; 60%of the remaining 60%of the remaining; 60%of the remaining 60%of the remaining; 60%of the remaining 60%of the remaining; 60%of the remaining 60%of the remaining; 60%of the remaining 60%of the remaining; 60%of the remaining 60%.People have become completely useless. They rely on the food and clothing provided by the government or other institutions, but have no sense of dignity and self -satisfaction.

If this prophecy is true, the society will change from the current olive type to a dumbbell type.The most serious problem that emerges is that the 60%of the people in the middle used to have a so -called white -collar middle class with a very low status in the past. Their concepts and emotions constitute the psychological foundation of modern society.In the future, if they become marginal parasites who cannot create wealth and obtain decent income, the impact of this change on society will undoubtedly be unprecedented.

In this way, it naturally leads to the third question: whether the various modes of technological progress (iteration) will be fierceThe basic stability of politics and culture has caused unbearable damage to society?

Regarding this concern, there are two opposite directions in front of us.

The first concern is the logic of political and culture caused by the consequences of the above second issue: when the polarization of power and wealth exacerbate, a large number of losers and useless people emerge, they will inevitably have strong dissatisfaction and angerEmotions are scattered throughout the society, leading to populist politics.In fact, in Western countries, the populism of the anti -globalization banner is almost the second 10 years of the 21st century.

It must be seen that in addition to globalization and immigration, technological changes are also parts that cannot be ignored.Here are only one example: Due to the decline of mainstream traditional media and the rise of social media, fake news and various political conspiracy theories that are difficult to discern from authenticity are flooded.The personalized push controlled by the algorithm further narrows the audience's field of vision and strengthens people's existing ideas and prejudices.Behind Facebook's tens of millions of users last year, behind the data leakage of tens of millions of users, it implicitly implicitly trying to brainwash people and control the dark intention of the election.

In terms of macro, technological progress has contributed to the decentralization of society, the loss of traditional authority, and the disintegration of the hierarchy.The order of the old era failed, but the order of the new era failed to establish. This vacuum and chaos are the primary problems that must be faced and faced in the next period of time.

The second kind of concern is anti -Utopia, a new type of totalitarianism and planned economic model based on big data and modern information technology.People are worried that in the future, the country will control citizens, society, and the entire national economy through the ubiquitous camera and powerful and fast calculations in the future.In other words, the continuous advancement of technology will pose a threat to human freedom and will bring us to the horror scene of type 1984.

hellip; hellip;

Compared with the first three issues that have extensive social, the final fourth question is almost exactly individualized: How much authentic benefits do we have brought us these people who live in the contemporary?Or are we just gained some illustrations in busyness and changes?

This problem is more like the sorrow of traditional literati, but I think it has a lot of meaning to discuss it.

In the past, every industry, from emerging to decline, there will be a long life cycle.Taking the automotive industry as an example, it replaced animal transportation such as carriage by equipment. At first, it was a stage when I called the model competition.However, soon, it entered a relatively stable period for decades, or even hundreds of years, is the stage of quality competition.In this process, different automobile manufacturing and sales companies have competitive products to compete for automotive products, price, and service hellip; hellip; the continuous optimization of the entire industry continuously creates products and services with lower prices but better quality for consumers.Several generations of workers have created stable employment and livelihood.

Today's competition has undergone fundamental changes, and the life cycle of all industries has been greatly shortened. Even Ma Yun and Ma Huateng are always with a strong sense of survival.Almost all of the new technologies have brought competition between different models. Few people consider improving the quality of products or services to allow consumers to get a better consumer experience.Because you have not stabilized to make a product well, it is enough to subvert the successor competitors of the entire industrial model.When the various new models of special cars, bicycles and takeaway e -commerce are dazzling, consumers' travel and food standards have not been really improved.To put it a little bit, they are just some convenient, cheap but inferior.

So we saw that Ford Motor Corporation has been established for more than 100 years and is still alive; and ofo died in less than five years.In just three or four years, how many consumers and related employees have really received from ofo's once dazzling technological innovation?The entire society has given a lot of energy to study, adapt to, and manage it.

I believe this is also the most important reason why most ordinary people feel anxious about the technological progress of this era rather than the excitement: people have a lot of investment (attention and energy) and not much harvest, but if you choose to ignore it, then thenWorried about the abandonment of the times.

In contrast to this increasingly short industrial cycle, some people are now exploring the mysteries of eternal life mdash; mdash; whether it is through biotechnology to make the human body grow forever, or through information technology to make people's brain activity movementBreaking away from physical constraints and becoming a pure electronic information existence.

What happened in this era?

It must have a better and more exciting place than in the past, but it seems that there are always some places.These problems need to be answered in the world's smartest minds.

(Note: The author is a senior media person. This article only represents the author's personal point of view.