Wang Qin: The impact of the Sino -U.S.

Wang Qin

The gradual upgrading of the Sino -US trade war has led to a slowdown in global trade growth, triggering trade protectionism, and fundamental changes in the international trade environment.At present, China and the United States are the first and third -largest trading partners in the Asianan country.In 2017, the commodity trade between Asia and China and the United States was US $ 441.09 billion and US $ 234.27 billion, respectively.The trading disputes between China and the United States' two major trading partners have gradually emerged on the direct or indirect impact of the economic economy economy in the Asia -safe country. The short -term negative effects are greater than long -term positive effects.

In March 2018, the United States announced that 25%and 10%of tariffs were levied on steel and aluminum products in various countries, which had a direct and indirect impact on the steel and aluminum industry in the Asianan country.At present, Thailand's exports of steel and aluminum products to the United States are US $ 1 billion, accounting for 14.7%of the exports of products such as Thailand. As a result, Thailand will lose its steel export market for the United States, domestic hot -rolled steel and cold -rolled steel productsIt will also be greatly impacted.At the same time, Thailand is the world's fifth largest steel importer. The US tariffs on steel and aluminum products will lead to similar foreign products to the Thai market, making Thai country companies face more intense competition.

In November 2018, the United States announced the cancellation of inclusive treatment for 11 products in Thailand. These 11 products include fresh orchids, fresh durian, dried papaya, dried Luo Wangzi, sweet corn, honey pupae, papaya, launching flooring, launching flooring, and launching floors.Plastic printing machinery, washing machines and tripods, 10 of which account for more than 50%of imported products in the United States.In 2017, Thailand's exports to the United States for inclusive treatment were $ 4.2 billion, accounting for about 13%of the total exports of the United States.At the same time, the United States is qualified for 124 products enjoying inclusive treatment Indonesia.

From the recent perspective, the negative effects of the Sino -US trade war on the Asianian economy are even more obvious. The main manifestations are: First, the tariffs levied by the United States to solar batteries, washing machines, steel and aluminum products in the world may weaken the country's electronics industry and the general Assembly country and the general Assembly country.Competitiveness of manufacturing.At the same time, the United States levies high tariffs on Chinese steel and aluminum products, which has also caused China to export steel products from the six Asians of the Asia, as well as aluminum products exported to Vietnam and Malaysia.In March 2019, Indonesia and Malaysia began to levy anti -dumping taxes on Chinese steel products, while Vietnam announced in June that it was a temporary anti -dumping tax on Chinese aluminum products.

The second is that high tariffs between China and the United States will impact the global value chain and supply chain, which will directly affect the value chain trade of the Asiakendan country.China and Asianan countries are important nodes of the global value chain and supply chain, and intermediate products account for 40%to 60%of the trade in China and Asian and Asia.Although Sino -US mutual tariffs have no direct impact on the exports of the Asianan country, many Asian national manufacturers supply intermediate products to China, processed as finished products from China to the United States, and China exports to the United States is blocked.It may be reduced.For example, due to the influence of the Sino -US trade war, the export volume of Vietnamese mobile phones and parts in Vietnam in the first six months of 2019 decreased significantly by 62.3%, and the main export market of such products was China and the United States.

Third, the upgrade of the Sino -US trade war will cause the international market to shrink and have a greater impact on the external Asian economy economy.The assessment of the impact of the Sino -US trade war on the export of Thailand on Thailand's Kaitai Research Center shows that the Sino -US trade war will lead to 2.4 billion to 2.9 billion US dollars in Thailand's net exports in 2019, accounting for 0.5%to 0.6%of the GDP.

From the middle and long term, the positive effects of the Sino -US trade war on the Asian economy's economy are mainly manifested as: to accelerate the reconstruction and adjustment of the global value chain. The export trade of the Asian country, the introduction of foreign capital and industrial upgrading will get new opportunities.As the United States levies high tariffs on some Chinese export products, companies will turn the production bases of the US export to the Asianan country in China, which will expand the export of the Ayanian country to the United States. In the context of the reorganization of the global value chain, the multinational company may be a Chinese multinational company.Some industries and production processes are transferred to the Asianan country; due to China's tariffs on some agricultural imports in the United States, this is conducive to the exports of some agricultural products in the Asian Simpan countries to China and the United States.

Faced with the increasingly upgraded situation of the Sino -US trade war, the Asianan State actively adopted response measures, promoted regional economic and security cooperation, strengthened the regional status and response capabilities of Ya'an, and avoided the selection stations in the strategic game of great powers.In June 2019, the 34th Asian Security Summit passed the ASEAN OUTLOOK OUTLOOK OETLOOK OETLO-PACIFIC, and put forward the position of the Aya'an response to the U.S. Indo-Pacific strategy.The official document pointed out that the Asianan should play a bridge role between the Pacific Ocean and the Indian Ocean. The cooperation under the Indo -Pacific initiative must be centered on the Asian Diandan, and it is tolerant and respect for international law.Ya'an proposed the four major areas of Indo -Pacific regional cooperation, namely marine cooperation, interconnection, sustainable development, and economy and other fields.

The negotiation process of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) accelerates the negotiation process to build a regional free trade system.At the 34th Asian Security Summit, the Prime Minister of Thailand, President of the Asian Danan Terry, pointed out that global protectionism is damaging the multilateral trading system. Asiabean must complete the RCEP negotiations led by the Asian Danian and covering 16 countries in 2019. This will help Yajian'anCopy the changes and uncertainties of the region, especially the impact of trade tensions among the main trading partners of Asians.President Zoko in Indonesia said that the upgrading of the Sino -US trade war will affect regional development and stability, and it must solve the problem of regional comprehensive economic partnerships.Malaysian Prime Minister Mahathir proposed that the RCEP negotiation must end before the Sino -US trade friction upgrade.Chen Zhensheng, Minister of Trade and Industry of Singapore, said that after the election of Agreement in India, Australia, Indonesia, and Thailand, the RCEP prospects will be clearer.RCEP will become the world's largest trade agreement, and member states will obtain the benefits of geopolitical and geopolitical strategies.

In order to cope with the reconstruction of the global value chain and regional production network caused by the upgrade of the Sino -US trade war, the Asian State began to use the time to adjust and reorganize the global value chain to actively adjust the industrial policy and investment strategy, eliminate the obstacles of goods and service, and promote trade.Investment liberalization and facilitation, vigorously improve the business environment, cultivate the development of the auxiliary industrial, and rely on regional supply chain to promote the formation of industrial clusters.Some of the subsequent Asianan countries used a comparative cost advantage to attract multinational companies to invest in factories in the local area, undertake the transfer of some labor -intensive industries and processes, and strive to become regional component suppliers and assembly plants of multinational companies.At present, only 25%of small and medium -sized enterprises participating in the global supply chain, and only 300 component production enterprises in the country have only 300 participating production networks for multinational companies.To this end, Vietnam is actively implementing relevant measures to encourage and support SMEs to participate in the global value chain.For example, South Korea's Samsung Group belongs to the next -level supplier of Vietnamese companies with 29 companies, and it is expected to reach 50 by 2020.

The author is a professor at Nanyang Research Institute of Xiamen University in China