US President Trump is accused of using economic globalization as a negotiating weapon.Sanctions, tariffs, and restrictions on US dollars have always been the main means of his foreign policy, and he is not restricted by allies, institutions or rules when using these methods.According to economists, the influence of the United States not only comes from the army and aircraft carriers, but also from its status as a central node to support the global network.The integration of such enterprises, ideas and standards reflects and enhances the strength of the United States.But Trump's approach may trigger a crisis, and is eroding the most precious assets in the United States MDash; MDash; its legitimacy.
Trump is not the first president of Economic InterDependence, and the United States is not the only country to do this.For example, in 1973, the Arabican used oil embargo to punish the United States to support Israel in the war of atonement.Shortly after that, Robert Keohane, a scholar of international relations, and I have published the book of power and interdependence (Power and InterDependence). This book discusses the interdependence relationship of asymmetric.Method.But we also wake up people's short -term returns sometimes transforming to long -term losses.For example, President Nixon restricted US soybean exports at the time, hoping to inhibit inflation.But in the long run, Brazil's soybean market has expanded rapidly and began to compete with American manufacturers.
In 2010, after a collision occurred near the Diaoyu Islands (known as the Diaoyu Islands) in the East China Sea, China and Japan were punished by restricting rare earth metal exports.The production of rare earth metals in modern electronic products is a vital element.As a result, Japan provides loans to a Australian mining company. The company set up a refinery in Malaysia. Now it is produced in this refined plant, which can meet the needs of one -third of Japan.
In addition, Mountain Pass, California, was closed at the beginning of this century.China's share in global rare earth output has dropped from more than 95%in 2010 to 70%last year.This year, the Chinese President ... I made a considerable response to Trump's tariff policy. He deliberately disclosed a photo of a rare earth production base.Crucial role.
For China's economic behavior, such as theft of intellectual property rights and subsidies for state -owned enterprises that have distorted advantages in the trade sector, the complaint between the United States and other countries is reasonable.In addition, for important security considerations, the United States avoids relying on Chinese companies such as Huawei in 5G wireless technology.Out of security related to freedom of speech, China also prohibits Facebook or Google operate in its firewall.However, it is one thing to limit certain technologies and companies for security reasons, causing large -scale interruptions of commercial supply chain, and even a political impact is another matter.At present, we don't know how long this impact will last and what long -term costs we will eventually pay.
Even though other countries cannot get rid of the interdependent network built by the United States in the short term, in the long run, they are increasingly inclined to do so.At the same time, international institutions that relieve conflicts and provide global public products will suffer high costs.As Henry Kissinger pointed out, the world order depends not only on stable power balance, but also depends on the legitimacy consciousness jointly constructed by various institutions.Trump responds to proper response to Chinese economic behavior, but he regards the price that the United States' alliances and international institutions must pay, and it is wrong to be lonely.Such an arbitrary governance also weakened his policy effects in Iran and Europe.
Alliances like NATO have stabilized people's expectations, while the existence of the United Nations, nuclear non -diffusion treaties, and international atomic energy agencies have enhanced international security.The open market and economic globalization may be destructive, but they also create wealth, although the benefits are often unevenly distributed.Maintaining financial stability plays a vital role in the daily life of millions of Americans and foreigners, although they may not notice this until the stability of finance disappears.No matter how localism and populist resist economic globalization, ecological globalization is inevitable.Greenhouse gases and epidemic diseases are common issues in the world, and they do not take the boundaries of political boundaries.The political opinions of populists are consistent with Trump's contempt on science, and the United States' approach to withdrawn from the Paris Climate Agreement in 2015, which is not compatible with the physical laws guidance.
Countries will require a framework to strengthen the use of ocean and space, as well as cooperation in climate change and epidemic diseases.Calling this framework as a free world order will undoubtedly have misunderstandings, mixing the promotion of free and democratic values with the construction of a global public product framework.China and the United States have differences in free democratic issues, but the establishment of an open and orderly system to manage the dependence of economy and ecology is in line with the common interests of the two countries.
Some supporters of the Trump administration believe that his non -orthodox style and rules and the willingness to abandon the old system will win major revenue for the United States on issues such as North Korean nuclear weapons, Chinese mandatory technology transfer or Iranian regime change.However, the relationship between power and mutual dependence will change over time. Too much manipulating the special status of the United States in the world's mutual dependence may be clumsy.As the economists have pointed out, in the long run, the institutional cost caused by the use of this crushing method may weaken the strength of the United States.If this is the case, it will prove that Trump's approach will give the United States a high price in national security, prosperity and lifestyle.
(Author Joseph S. Nye, Jr. is a professor at Harvard University in the United States, is it important to publish a new work of new works?
English Title: Power and InterDepencence in the Trump Era
Copyright: Project Syndicate, 2019
