Early under the table
Taiwan's politics not only has more saliva, but more polls.As long as there is money and resources, anyone, think tanks or media agencies can conduct polls for special politicians, or frustrate their gas.As Taiwan enters the election hot season, there are more polls, and there is an average of one out every two days.The political corner on the table is often asked about the latest public opinion direction, and it will always use the polls to refer to the importance of the polls, which vaguely brings the importance of the polls.But the paradox is that the Blue and green parties have generated presidential candidates this time this time, setting the first case.
Wu Dunyi, the Kuomintang chairman of the Kuomintang, who is about to handle the seven -day presidential poll from the day after tomorrow, apparently realized the historical significance of this milestone.He presided over a press conference yesterday to explain the process of primary voters' sampling processes: This is the first primary election of the Republic of China by the Republic of China. We have conscience.Emphasizing the selflessness of the Kuomintang, while ridicule the DPP's injustice.
The public opinion measured by polls clearly refers to the attitude orientation of a certain ethnic group in a certain area at a certain time.Government governance must be in response to public opinion, and the competition for election campaigns must be worried about public opinion.As for statistical theory, as long as random sampling voters are representative, that is, their age, gender, education level, and place of residence are roughly in line with the structure of voters in Taiwan.Opinions of all voters.However, there is a gap between theory and practice after all. For example, problems such as mother bias and the quality of visitors may cause the sample errors, resulting in the loss of polls.
In this case, when the old -fashioned democratic country, such as the United States, is far away, is the two major parties in Taiwan who is alone in the world. Is it appropriate to use the national adjustment as a primary election mechanism in the party?
In fact, the preliminary nomination method of winning or losing by polls was adopted by the DPP in the 1997 county mayor election.At that time, the Green Camp adopted a second -stage primary election: In the first stage, the party members voted for the second stage of polls if there was no result. After that, the proportion of polls increased year by year to the current national tone.Later, the Kuomintang also began to imitate the DPP and gradually increased the proportion of polls in primaries.
According to the analysis of Taiwanese political scholars Wang Yeli and Yang Ruifen, the National and Civil Party introduced polls when nominated candidates. The main purpose is: First, try to shorten the gap between the party's intentions and the public, in order to nominate more appropriate candidates and be inWinning in the election campaign; the second is the atmosphere of bribery, buying tickets in the preliminary election in the party, and the distortion of party members of the pocket party members of the people.
Taking the Kuomintang as an example, Wu Dunyi, who originally had fantasies for running the president, did not care about the whole people.Analysis generally believes that Wu Dunyi, who has mastered party machines and has the background experience of nine -in -one victory, is more beneficial to mobilize party members than other potential candidates.In the same way, Wang Jinping, the former Legislative Dean of Kaohsiung Local School of Bai School, and Wang Jinping, who has been deeply cultivated at the grassroots level, also confidently confidently confessed to his party members.When customizing the strange primary election, the loved Lan Camp was naturally unwilling to accompany to the end, but chose to quit.
However, there are two sides of everything, and the preliminary selection of polls is not flawed.For example, the winner of the primary election will not have the strong competitiveness in the election, and it may not be the most appropriate candidate; the important power of the party's loss of talents;Guo Taiming, former chairman of South Korea ’s Yu and Hon Hai Group), dominates, destroy the unity within the party, and the defeat may still insist on running to the end.
And even though the preliminary selection of polls helps to eliminate the doubts of the people's party members, it also allows other Opu (bad moves) to organically take advantage of it.For the preliminary polls carried out by the DPP last month, Tsai Ing -wen, who was originally in the wind, finally caught up, greatly defeating the opponent Lai Qingde, making experts and scholars doubt about the reliability of the mother's sample, especially the mobile phone number.The former president Chen Shui -bian, who had a golden eyes, said: Abian did not believe it.
Of course, the Kuomintang couldn't escape.Recently, the rumors about Green Camp supporters attempted to fillet tickets to South Korea ’s Yu was very arrogant, and some even shouted that Yu Yu (Korean Yu) ordered fish, and fish -free food (Cai Yingwen) tutoring tactics.In addition, because the Kuomintang adopts household sampling, that is, the power -on person may not be answered, there are plans to pretend to be young people who do not vote in Korean, to increase the probability of being dotted, which is simply strange.Because various conspiracy theories were full of flying, Wu Dunyi had to hold a press conference yesterday to declare that he was a party as a party. He would not do unjustles to any candidate, leaving a record of permanent and ugly history.
However, the President's nomination of the Democratic Progressive Party has been settled, and the Kuomintang is on the string. Now it is later to discuss whether the poll primary election is appropriate.I just hope that the results of the primary election of the Blue Camp will no longer let people kill it.
