I thought that the increase in carrots to move the US company to move the factory back from China to the United States. As a result, I didn't want to move to Vietnam one by one. This unexpected evolution made him annoyed him.A few hours before attending the G20 Summit, Trump accused Vietnam in accused Vietnam's cheaper than China when receiving the on -site telephone connection of Fox News Channel, and even described Vietnam with the worst (trade) abusers.

This interview can be described as a cold sweat in Vietnam. The Vietnamese government signed a free trade agreement with the EU mdash; mdash; agreed to gradually reduce it until 99%of the tariffs of 99%of the bilateral cargo trade mdash; mdash;More American products to reduce a trade surplus of $ 39.5 billion.However, the weakness seemed to fail to play its ideal role. Trump's tariff stick finally fell down MDASH; mdash; on July 2, local time, the US Department of Commerce statedA punitive tariffs can be up to 456%.

According to Reuters, some manufacturers in South Korea and Taiwan are transported to Vietnam for a little processing before they export to the United States to avoid anti -dumping and anti -subsidy tariffs.The US Department of Commerce also gave relevant data: the United States levied anti -dumping and anti -subsidy tariffs from South Korea and Taiwan products in December 2015 and February 2016. From then on to April this year, Vietnam exported to the United States to corrosion resistance to the United States to resist corrosion resistance.Steel and cold -rolled steel rose by 332%and 916%respectively compared with the same period.

Since the start of the Sino -US trade war, Vietnam has appeared from time to time. Nowadays, in the context of globalization, no country or region can truly become profitable fishermen.In fact, in the past two years, the author has visited Vietnam many times and has also had related exchanges with Vietnamese scholars. Their attitude has not been as gloating as it is speculated by outside public opinion. On the contrary, anxiety has continued to increase hellip; hellip;

Two -way checks and balance strategy

In recent years, in the context of the general slowdown of the global economy and the gradual decline in China's economic growth, Vietnam's economic performance has been glorious, which has amazed by many domestic people.In 2018, only India's economic growth rate can be comparable to 7.08%of Vietnam's economic growth.However, in fact, the Vietnam economy has long maintained a medium-to-high-speed growth of 5%-6%for a long time. In recent years, its economy has not shown a significant special feature. It is only due to the slowdown in China's economic slowdown.

As an emerging medium -sized country driven by foreign trade, Vietnam relies on economic and trade in terms of economic and trade.On the one hand, China is its largest import market, and a large number of life and production necessities come from China.On the other hand, the United States is the largest export market in Vietnam. To some extent, it maintains its trade balance and economic growth source.

For a long time, Vietnam has pursued a two -way checks and balance strategy between China and the United States. On the one hand, it is intended to use China to resist the ideological infiltration of the United States.The two countries check and balance each other, so as to make Vietnam's two rents and profit from them.

On February 27, 2019, local time, the Golden Scenarians on the day of the Golden Society on the day of the Golden Society.(Figure/Vision China)

Regarding the strategic relations between China and the United States and Vietnam, Fan Pingming once said that Vietnam must make full use of the favorable opportunities for China and the United States to win Vietnam and strive for the greatest benefits from China and the United States.In this context, Vietnam requires China to increase its imports from Vietnam and curb China's exports to Vietnam to reverse the unfavorable trade structure to its country.Vietnamese products are open market.

From the wall to the wall to see gradually anxiety

At the beginning of the outbreak of the Sino -US trade war, some groups in Vietnam did have a blind optimism and disaster. They believed that China and the United States would be coming, and a good day in Vietnam would come.However, Vietnam's high -level and elites' influence on the influence of the Sino -US trade war is far more profound and sober than ordinary people.As a result, shortly after the Sino -US trade war, Vietnam's optimistic attitude towards the Sino -US trade war was replaced by a anxiety.

In August and October 2018, the author was invited to Vietnam for academic exchanges twice, and deeply felt that Vietnamese scholars had a very different attitude before and after the Sino -US trade war.

In August, Yuefang scholars did not care about the Sino -US trade war.At the academic seminar that celebrated the 40th anniversary of China's reform and opening up in October, most of the attention points of Yuefang scholars are concentrated on the Sino -US trade war.One of the most words asked by experts when communicating is: Can China be supported by the Sino -US trade war?During the meeting, I encountered Mr. Ruan Huigui, the former director of China. After the two sides greet each other, the old gentleman did not forget to add a sentence: The Sino -US trade war is a very important issue. After a while, we will discuss it.

At the dinner for Chinese scholars, Dr. Ruan Chunqiang, Director of the Chinese Research Institute, Liu Bihu, former dean of the Strategic Research Institute of the Vietnam Planning and Investment Department, once again talked about the issue of the Sino -US trade war.Dr. Ruan Chunqiang believes that at the beginning of the Sino -US trade war, Vietnam believes that the game between China and the United States will be beneficial to Vietnam, but after many parties, Vietnam's mainstream view is that the Sino -US trade war will be played in depth. No matter who you lose and who will win, it will be to Vietnam and Vietnam.It is said that the disadvantages are greater than the benefits, and it is the unbearableness of Vietnam. Vietnam hopes that China and the United States can solve differences peacefully.

Vietnam pursues a two -way check -balance strategy between China and the United States. The purpose is to turn around between China and the United States, to make the two countries check and balance each other, and to draw in Vietnam, thereby giving the Vietnam national interests to maximize the interests.If the strategy is implemented smoothly, at least the following conditions should be guaranteed: First of all, Vietnam has important strategic value for China and the United States; second, both China and the United States actively attract Vietnam for strategic needs. Finally, Vietnam must be in China and the United States in China and the United StatesMaintain a balance between the border selection station.

As Fan Pingming said above: The best way to maintain its own interests in Vietnam is to maintain a balance between China and the United States, so that China and the United States are competing to win Vietnam.Once Vietnam is selected, Vietnam will lose its initiative, and its interests will be damaged.

In November 2018, Professor Du Jinsen came to Guangzhou for academic exchanges.The author has conducted detailed exchanges on the Sino -US trade war in the Guangdong International Strategic Research Institute.Professor Du Jinsen gave the following explanation for the different attitudes of the Sino -US trade war before and after Vietnam:

China and the United States are crucial to Vietnam. China is the largest trading partner and the largest import market in Vietnam. At present, the Sino -Vietnamese trading structure is developing in a good aspect, and the trade deficit between China and Vietnam has been greatly reduced.The United States is the largest export market in Vietnam. Without a trade surplus from the US market, it is difficult for Vietnam to maintain a overall trade balance. At the same time, Vietnam is also a country that highly depends on foreign trade.Essence

Vietnamese factory (data chart/visual China)

The small -scale game between China and the United States in trade issues is a normal phenomenon in relations between the two countries. It will not adversely affect Vietnam and may also be beneficial to Vietnam.However, once the Sino -US trade war broke out, the situation in Vietnam may be very difficult. At that time, no matter who the two countries lose, Vietnam will lose heavy losses.First of all, China is also a country that is driven by foreign trade. Once the United States blocks China's export market, China will definitely use the China -Vietnam Free Trade Zone and the China ASEAN Free Trade Zone to find a way out.

From an aspect, the consensus of the leaders of China and Vietnam will reject the unbalance of Sino -Vietnamese trade at that time may be difficult to implement at that time. Affected by the US trade sanctions, China's exports to Vietnam will surge.From a large level, China uses the Vietnamese and ASEAN channels to implement its external exports to avoid the impact of the Sino -US trade war on China exports. Vietnam will be in a dilemma.Revenge, which makes Vietnam lose the US market, which will cause the Vietnamese economy to stagnate.

If China loses this trade war, then Vietnam will lose any utilization value for the United States, and China will win the trade war, and the power of East Asia will also be unbalanced, which is not a gospel for Vietnam.Therefore, from the perspective of Vietnam, I do not want the two major countries of China and the United States to fight for your death. Instead, I hope that the two countries will reach an agreement or maintain a low intensity game through negotiations and negotiation.In this way, Vietnam does not need to choose a side station, but also can meet the interests of its own interests between China and the United States.

Geopon Strategic fulcrum

In fact, at least from the Obama period, Vietnam's geographical roles in the Asia -Pacific region, especially Southeast Asia, have received great attention from the United States. Economic strength has been continuously enhanced. Vietnam, which is expected to be expected by the United States, is regarded by the United States as an important important in the South China Sea and Southeast Asia.Geographic strategic fulcrum.As a result, the United States has given Vietnam a great care and loose policy in many issues such as intellectual property rights and trade, and relaxes the threshold for Vietnam, making Vietnam the founding member of the Cross Pacific Economic Partner Agreement (TPP).

After Trump came to power, he exited TPP, but in its Indo -Pacific strategy, Vietnam is still an important geopolitical partner country in the United States.Campbell, an assistant secretary of the Asia -Pacific Affairs in the United States, pointed out as early as 2016 that after Trump came to power, whether or not he re -balanced strategy or not, the essence of the United States' policy in the South China Sea will not change.

At the beginning of 2019, the new US ambassador to Vietnam Aurden Black gave a speech in Ho Chi Minh City, announcing that it would promote the more in -depth development of the United States and Vietnam relations in the background of Indo -Pacific and increase its support for Vietnam and Southeast Asian countries.He claims that an infrastructure construction and national development plan for the implementation of funds provided by a large country will cause the danger of being eroded in Vietnam and Southeast Asia to pay for sovereignty. The United States will try to participate in Vietnam and other Southeast Asian countries through private economic networksThe construction of infrastructure and energy development provides Vietnam with a different choice for Vietnam, so that Vietnam can make free choices without sacrificing sovereignty.

At the same time, through the free sailing strength in the South China Sea and increased its soft military aid for Vietnam, in order to strengthen Vietnam's confidence in confrontation between China, since Trump came to power, the United States has provided Vietnam with about $ 100 millionMilitary assistance is used to train the literacy of the Vietnamese commander, maritime law enforcement, maritime confrontation and disturbance capabilities. At the same time, provide energy utilization and mining technology to Vietnam, and enhance Vietnam's confidence in Vietnam's economic activities in the disputed sea area to achieveContainment of China's purpose.

Vietnam Geographical Chart (Figure/Google Map)

In the above background, when Premier Ruan Chunfu inspected Vietnam's plan to invest in early 2019, it was announced that Vietnam would become a century -old vision plan for developed countries on the occasion of the 100th anniversary of the national independence in 2045, and it is clearly stated that the future Vietnamese economy will be based on the private enterprise department as the main bodyof.With the intensification of the Sino -US trade war, in the first four months of 2019, Vietnam's export of trade with the United States has increased by more than 40%, which has a very positive effect on pulling Vietnam GDP.However, because Vietnam is a country driven by foreign investment, one of Vietnam's requirements for foreign investment is to promote Vietnam's exports. Therefore, in the current 40%of the growth, which are created by Vietnamese companies and which belong to foreign companies.Exports, which are difficult to distinguish between re -export trade.

Vietnam has maintained a huge trade surplus to the United States for a long time, but for geopolitical strategic considerations, the United States has almost never talked about trade deficit in Vietnam.Even after Trump came to power, in addition to using China as the main struggle target, he also frequently shot Mexico, the European Union, Japan, and South Korea, but he has not started to Vietnam.The reason for this is that in addition to the unique strategic value of Vietnam in the Sino -US game, it is also related to the economic volume of Vietnam.The starting point of Vietnam's economy is very low. By 2018, the total amount of GDP is only 248 billion US dollars. Although the United States is its largest export market for Vietnam, it is not high for the United States.It has no substantial significance to aimed at Vietnam from an economic perspective.

Warning or affecting China -Vietnam Trade

This time Trump suddenly took out Vietnam and announced that it would impose 456%of the punitive tariffs on Vietnam's exports to some products in the United States. Its target and warning are very strong.This goal is mainly aimed at the re -export products native to South Korea and Taiwan. The deeper goal is to warn Vietnam and stand in a good position in the Sino -US trade dispute. Do not do the transfer of US tariffs on US tariffs.In this regard, Vietnam is also known.When the author communicated with Professor Du Jinsen from Fudan University, he also believed that Vietnam's current economic aggregate is not even from zero. It is not substantial to point the spearhead to Vietnam to improve the US trade deficit.The goal is China, and the impact of this move on Vietnam's economy is not as great as the outside world.

Nonetheless, the United States did give Vietnam a severe warning, which will inevitably affect the economic and trade relations between Vietnam and China and Vietnam's position in the Sino -US trade war.In the foreseeable future, Vietnam will show more cautious and conservative policies on accepting China's export products, and the problem of increased problems between China and Vietnam trade may increase.Because the US spearheads are directly accurate by some countries and regions attempting to avoid US tariff sanctions, the negative impact of this tariff measure on Vietnam's economic development and Vietnam and the United States is extremely limited. In the foreseeable future, the Vietnamese economy will still maintainTrend.