U.S. President Trump and Chinese President ... Tell the phone yesterday to determine the meeting during the Summit of the G20 (G20) summit held next week.Scholars of interviewees predict that the meeting will be an important turning point for restarting trade negotiations, but the meeting cannot reverse Sino -US relations that have changed qualitatively.
Zhu Feng, dean of the Institute of International Relations of Nanjing University, pointed out to the United Zaobao in an interview that after China and the United States started more than a month of public opinion and offensive warfare on trade issues, the leaders of the two countries determined thatA positive signal, both parties still have to solve the problem, not simple quarrels and oppositions.
He judged that, with the positive atmosphere of the G20 Xi Special Association, it is likely that, as the Sino -US summit at the end of last year, it became an important turning point for restarting trade negotiations like the meeting in Buenos Aires.
After the two countries' heads attended the G20 in December last year, they announced the 90 -day ceasefire agreement after attending the G20 and meeting.After China and the United States, after several rounds of trade consultations, the outside world once saw the hope of both parties reaching an agreement.
However, the United States announced its tariffs on China on the 5th of last month. The Sino -US trade negotiation situation has shifted sharply. The two parties' trade consultation team held the last round of negotiations in Washington on the 10th of last month.
China and the United States subsequently levied tariffs and threatened sanctions on each other. China also showed rare earth cards at the end of last month as a countercroof tool in the trade war.
The G20 summit is regarded as one of the last opportunities for the leaders of the two sides to avoid the continued upgrading of the Sino -US trade war.Chen Bo, a professor at Huazhong University of Science and Technology, analyzed in the interview that the best result of the two leaders' meeting was that the two sides reached a principled agreement and returned to the situation before the trade war in early April last year, but this probability will not be too large.
He estimates that the greater possibility is that the United States will set aside a plan to levy a tax on the US -US commodity tax on US $ 300 billion (S $ 410 billion) to release a stable signal to the outside world, that is, the trade war will not be resolved quickly, but notIt will be severe, and then the two parties will continue to negotiate the earlier trade agreement text.
With the Office of the US Trade Representative, from this week, it has further raised the tariffs worth US $ 300 billion in US -US transmission to the United States to 25 % to hold public hearing.Trump said earlier that if an agreement was not concluded at the summit, the United States would immediately implement the above -mentioned tariff plan.
After the two countries announced the news of the leaders, the director of the White House National Economic Commission, Kudlo, said in an interview with Fox News that the focus of trade negotiations that the United States wanted to come down was structural reform and enforcement mechanism.
Kudlo said: The United States hopes to continue the structural reforms such as intellectual property theft, mandatory technology transfer, market openness and tariffs.
He also said that the United States has been looking for an execution agreement, which is definitely vital.
The pressure of the United States election made Trump began to be anxious
Some analysts pointed out that because the footsteps of the United States are approaching, Trump will have greater motivation to accept it in Sino -US trade negotiations.
Chen Bo analyzed that the trade war may not have much impact on the overall economy of the United States, but individual groups will be impacted, such as farmers in the American agricultural state, that is, Trump's iron ticket warehouse;Pu's hand has forced the Chinese market to further open to the outside world, but the recent opposition to the continuous trade war is also increasing.
Chen Bo said that recent mainstream polls in the United States show that Trump's support rate lags behind the Democratic Party candidates., Trump may be anxious to pick this peach.
Sino -US relations are still worrying
However, even if China and the United States have made progress in trade issues, scholars are still not optimistic about the substantial changes in relations between the two countries.
Zhu Feng believes that the restoration of trade negotiations can not solve the scientific and technological war between China and the United States, and the overall decline in Sino -US relations, and to the situation of competition in a new type of great power. Sino -US relations are generally worrying.
He said: The restoration of trade negotiations, even if an agreement is reached, can not cause Sino -US relations to have a substantial reversal and change.
(Reported by Yang Danxu, a special agent from Shanghai Morning Post)
