Wang Yiming: The peak of Trump's re -election win rate curve may appear in the present, but he may encounter various huge and fatal uncertainty in the next 17 months.

During the period before the re -election, Trump was somewhat less smooth.Even if you have done a lot of efforts, many of the agreements that have been thinking about it still failed to sign a contract, and could not give up a great time for this great moment that belonged to the president.Since the start of the trade war, the number of polls in various states also seems very ugly.In Trump's most relying on the rust area, many Democratic candidates have received more voters.Republicans' traditional hinterlands are in cases, and Democrats have long been brewing.

For a long time, the campaign has provided Trump's spiritual motivation that has never been dried to participate in political life, and has shaped the greatest source of legitimacy of the president.As early as the day of his inauguration, Trump submitted the filing document for the establishment of a re -election campaign committee; his first campaign can be traced back to February 18, 2017, and Trump published at a rally in Florida.It may become the remarks of the Democratic Terminator again, which is less than a full month from its entry into the White House; the formal establishment of this intention is on February 28, 2018, and the presidential election is 980 days in advance, which makes Trump aThe earliest president to announce the re -election decision in American history.Then, on June 18, he officially launched his re -election campaign, as if it was about to usher in a grand entertainment season.For Trump, the White House is his light.He will be passionately put into a fight with the major martial arts of the Democratic Party, and vowed to defend the ultimate value of the Republican party or Trump's personal.The president is looking forward to this day for a long time. At this moment, he is standing on the top of Washington, and Chao will come.

Standing at this important historical moment, if we choose to look at it in 2020, what can we see?

1. What is unpredictable?

In the past few months, the media under the Democratic Party used overwhelming polls to tell us mdash; mdash; you can see Trump's inevitable failure!The most common statement is that if the election can be held tomorrow, the Republican Party is destined to usher in a hearty defeat, and Biden's efforts to reshape the American soul will make Trump how to be a person in minutes.However, 17 months before the presidential election, is the poll at this moment enough to be credible?

At this time in 2015, when Trump announced his pet to participate in the presidential election, no one cares about his existence whether the Democratic Party or the Republican Party.One ride is a leading leader who wants to take it for granted.This is not the first time Hillary's lead. In 2007, when she first challenged the White House, poll data also maintained for a long time. Even when she was competing with Obama for black voters with Obama.However, after a primary election of Iova, the entire wind direction fell to Obama, and Hillary's polls were instantly disappeared.If we have gone through the presidential election since 1960, in the primary election in the party's competition, the Republican polls leading candidates 10 times 8 times and finally became the president, which is relatively stable;, Half of the probability cannot reach the end.This is still a more reliable stage in the party. At present, it is only the stage of nominations in the party. There are three quarters from the preliminary selection. At this moment, the poll data seems to be more like the two parties used to create an atmosphere, abducting voters, and abducted voters.Tool of.Robert Bull at the University of Columbia; Professor Eriksson and Chris Bull at the University of Texas University of Austin; Professor Welz launched the year of the presidential election annual watch launched in 2012.The poll data was conducted in -depth analysis.If the degree of fit and the investigation time is placed on the same quadrant, the conclusion is obvious: for the polls initiated 300 days ago as early as the presidential election day, its predictability can be ignored.

It is not difficult to understand here.From the candidate to the presidential election, it is necessary to go through the long nomination, primary election, party congress, and two -party campaign. Each stage of candidates is different, the issues are different, and the enemy is different.The voter groups are also different. Candidates will show different campaign attitudes in combination with the main contradictions of different stages, and voters' preference will naturally fluctuate.For example, Trump gave Ted Bull during the selection stage in early 2016; Cruz got a lot of nicknames, and after receiving the party nomination, he was a dear and hug.Different.Every time there is a threshold, candidates will face the re -adjustment of the voters' basic disk, and those voters who support defeat candidates will be forced to make new choices.Regardless of the abandonment of voting or adding a new candidate's disk, it will have a great impact on poll data.For example, the loyalty of Sanders voters has always been very high. In 2016, the anger of defeating North Hillary under the coordination of the party in 2016 is especially here. If it is hidden in 2020, it is likely to transfer anger to other candidates.The overall voting rate of the Democratic Party caused a serious hit.It is not difficult to see from the presence of the polls mentioned above. After the end of the party congress, the accuracy of the polls often appears a significant stage.Resentment directly affects the emotion and stability of the basic disk.

In summary, it is not difficult to find that no matter how confusing the early polls, its prediction ability is very limited, which also explains why the Republican camp has not showed obvious concerns about the current disadvantages of the present.In 2015, Trump announced that the support rate of polls at the campaign was only 33%, and Hillary's support rate was as high as 53%at that time; the number of Trump rose to 45.5%when he entered the White House.68%.For Trump's campaign team, if this Cao Lai has been settled and the years of the blue road can be survived, the current situation is not very good, it is not worth complaining.You know, even at the worst times, Trump's support rate has not fallen below 32%, which shows that the first loyal voters who identified him in 2015 have always been with.From now on, Trump has re -entered the road he had walked in 2016 to fully stimulate his basic disk of voters, and coupled with the advantage of holding in the man, there is no reason to be as pessimistic as the current polls.

In this belief, the Trump campaign team recently put forward some preliminary ideas of the 2020 election strategy. The unexpected thing is that the Republican Party does not take the Democratic Party's primary goal.State, Minnesota, Mexico and New Hampshire.In 2016, Trump lost much in these states.The Republican Ruyi abacus is very simple. In the early days of the election, find some states that can be up and down to see if there will be some positive signs, whether there will be a substitutional victory route.When the real competition arrives, he will put his strength into the core of the core.This is a long process of effort in stages. It is important to start. However, the sprint of the last month is likely to be better than before.Trump's performance in the final stage of the 2016 campaign perfectly explained this.

What is the test?Stupid, economical!

This sentence was engraved on the wall of the Clinton team campaign consultant James; the wall of Kavir's office, it eventually brought Clinton a seemingly impossible victory.Looking at it now, this logic still seems to be applicable.The linkage between the presidential campaign and the economic situation is a very mainstream issue in the political research of the United States. The so -called economic iron law has been bumpy for decades.Here we might as well take some time to repeat it.

Since the end of World War II, the United States has experienced a total of 10 on -the -job presidential elections in total, of which Johnson's re -election campaign in 1964 and Nixon in 1972 and Bush in 2004 was low.exclude.Among the remaining 7 elections, the average economic growth rate of any president in the past two years and the average economic growth rate of four years of previous presidentIn comparison, if the president is better at the president, all of which will be re -elected; if the president makes the economic situation worse, it will inevitably encounter a re -election failure.The only faint counterfeit here is Eisenhower in 1956. The average economic growth rate of the previous two years was slightly behind the former Trumon government.EssenceThe reason why we chose to be the past two years instead of all four years of data is to emphasize that voters care more about the development trend of economic indicators.Fortunately, it was Reagan in 1984. He did not solve the inflation problem left by the Kate government in the first two years of his office. It happened to be on the eve of the re -election campaign. Reagan led the US economy out of decline.The unfortunate thing is the old Bush. When the re -election in 1992, the economy was actually gradually getting better. However, the emotions of voters on this issue have been solidified by the previous pessimistic expectations.Essence

Now we can return the topic back to Trump.The average economic growth rate of Trump's first two years was 2.59%, which was 2.15%higher than the average period of the second term of the Obama administration; the unemployment rate successively settled the Obama government to 3.6%, which was a new low in the United States in the past 50 years.There are significant staged callbacks, but the longest bull market in American history has been set.At present, whether these achievements are due to the good foundation of Obama or Trump's tax reduction policy has generated miracles, and it has become no longer important.The voters care about the number itself. At the moment of Trump's support is only 42%, the support rate of its economic policy has reached 56%, which is a little height that Trump's various policies can touch.A recent study of the Brukins Society also shows that compared with the Obama administration, the employment rates in most regions of the region that Trump won in the campaign in 2016 was more regional.Fast increase.

Interestingly, despite the shining of the three major aura of low unemployment, strong economic growth rate and Changniu stock market, Trump's support rate has never exceeded 45%.EssenceHowever, the presidential campaign looks at the trend, not the absolute value.In the first few months of taking office, Trump successfully led his support rate to the straight line back to the safe range. After that, he would only be a bonus.Although the current government's troubles in other aspects have continued, since the implementation of the tax reduction policy, Trump has successfully created a solid barrier for his re -election campaign for himself.The reliable basic disk is always in a stable and controllable space, which can tolerate a part of the swing voters enter and exit in the middle, and can provide a decisive sprint force when the last point is needed.If luck is good enough, Trump will also be blessed by the economic iron law halo: when the Elected people's daily evaluation of Trump himself, what they think of is often the disgust of this guy; howeverWhen a president is selected, they may return to the rational economic consideration.Historical experience shows that this is one of the most common pictures when the president is re -elected.

Third, long time

The only problem in front of this beautiful vision is time.Trump himself seemed to think so.Faced with the recent Democratic polls, Trump made a fierce response: In 2016, my polls were also very poor. Didn't we all win?I don't believe in polls, and our team is not very popular.Trump confidently rebuke the number of media made by the media as fake news: I am far ahead in each state. In fact, the best time for my support rate is today.

Objective evaluation, Trump's campaign is really sensitive.What he said is right. If we have pulled out a Trump's re -election curve from now on, the real peak may appear in the present.The wonderful economy, a strong trade war, the passing Russian gate, absolute loyalty, what else do they need to achieve a hearty re -election campaign?If there is a moment more perfect than this moment, maybe it is pushing forward for three or four months. When the trade war just condenses the will of voters from all walks of life and does not touch the vital interests of all parties, maybe this re -election may be re -electedThe road will be smoother.

However, the problem is that looking at this curve to the distance, Trump may encounter various huge uncertainty in the next 17 months. For a re -election campaign, any one will be absolutely fatal.It is not the poll at this moment, but a long waiting at this moment, but a long wait.These uncertainty includes and is not limited to: the stalemate of trade friction, the buildings where US stocks may occur at any time, a Middle East war under the abduction of Israel, the Trump's irregular Charlottyville event -like stump, etc.Essence

The economy cannot be redeemed, and the degree of understanding of economic expectations and the acceptance of disaster are not consistent.A research report from the University of Michigan last year showed that during the period of the Reagan government, the proportion of Republicans held an optimistic attitude towards economic expectations exceeded 11.5 percentage points. Democratic parties exceeded 7.4 percentage points in the same period.The expected difference is 18.9.In the Bush and Obama government, this difference expanded, reaching 20.9 and 23.9, respectively.However, in the Trump administration, voters have seriously affected their cognition and judgment on economic prospects. The expected difference between the boltice voters was as high as 55.4.It is also the US economy under Trump's governance. Republicans heard Reagan's summons not far away. Democrats believed that one step forward was the abyss.According to the Federal Reserve's recent economic growth expectations, the US economic growth rate may be only 2.1%and 1.9%in the past two years. If this number is according to this number, the average economic growth rate of Trump's first term of two years will be significantly lower than Obama.The four -year average of the government's second term will be eliminated according to the economic iron law.

For the remaining 17 months, the most important task of Trump is to maintain the status quo. The war must not appear. Trade friction must also find a way to fool voters and conceal the sea.And if the Fed's judgment on economic expectations is accurate, then it seems that it seems not enough to maintain the status quo. Trump must inject more stimulus to economic growth.The economy under Trump is the closest to the closest economic miracle since the end of the Cold War. However, throughout the 1990s, the United States had an extremely iconic benefit, that is, the Internet economy.On the occasion of 2020, Trump did not build a new economic growth point in American society. The tax reduction was just adjusting the stock. The return of manufacturing to hate iron and steel.In fact, for a long time, the president has been using the standard Trump -style virtual confidence to lead the American economy and staggered. Trump himself is the most beneficial to the US economy at the moment.This is really an incredible irony: Trump's enemies have exhausted their efforts to get rid of their presidents, but they cannot change a basic reality.support.After the bubble was broken, a huge fall may be here.

Trump's confidence in the US economy is sincere and determined. The question is whether the market dares to build such confidence and whether voters will be willing to believe in such confidence again.Trump hopes to continue at this moment. However, how long will it last, will the US economy eventually choose to reconcile with the president, or a showdown?If it is the latter, happen before the election, or after?The long time eventually became the biggest obstacle to Trump's re -election in 2020. This waiting makes everything blurred and unpredictable. The president itself is the biggest unpredictable factor.In the final decisive battle, in order to keep this carefully created economic barrier, Trump spares no effort to add drama to himself, add or order the economy, and not take care of all this can digest for the market and voters.The most good ability of the president is to open everywhere, but never end.This may not be a good quality in a long sprint that occupies an absolute significance.Whenever he has done anything, he is likely to eventually become his own destroyer.

(Note: Author Wang Yiming is the research of Pangu think tankMembers, doctoral students at the School of International Relations of Renmin University of China.This article only represents the author's personal point of view.Responsible for the mailbox [email protected])