Deng Yanwen: It is impossible to imagine that the economy and technology of the United States and China are completely decoupled, but the Trump administration's approach makes people feel that the United States may indeed drive in the direction of decoupling.
The U.S. -China trade war and scientific and technological warfare are now. For the outside world, the difficulty of judgment is the true intention of the Trump administration.You have me in the US -China economy, you, you, and the global supply chain system are close. It is impossible to imagine that the US -China economy and technology will be completely decoupled. HoweverThe American train may indeed drive in the direction of the two countries' economies.
Martin Bull, deputy editor -in -chief and chief economic commentator of the British Finance Times; In his recent article, Wolf reminded that conflicts between China and the United States may last for a hundred years. Is there ideological preparations in the outside world?In the past, Bao Daoge, the director of the Taipei Office of the Taiwan Association and the vice chairman of the Carnegie International Peace Foundation, also wrote that the confrontation relationship between the two countries has entered a more dangerous phase after the trade negotiation breakdown.
Chinese scholars' predictions on US -China relations are equally pessimistic.Yu Yongding, a member of the Academic Department of the Academy of Social Sciences, listed in the keynote speech of the Ninth Sino -Japanese Financial Round Table Seminar.Zhang Yuyan, director of the Institute of Shi Jing of the Academy of Social Sciences, created a new word lock to describe Trump's policy of China.According to his explanation, there are two basic meanings of the rules. One is to use a new set of international rules to regulate or limit China's behavior in the high -tech field, and the other is to lock China's global value chain., Make China and the United States maintain a constant and large gap as possible at the scientific and technological level;
In addition, the possibility of transition from the lock to curb does not rule out.Wu Xinbo, Dean of the Institute of International Issues of Fudan University, believes that Trump has three basic points for China, namely decoupling, restrictions and pressure.Risk of military conflicts.
The warnings of these first -class scholars at home and abroad have made people see the grim of things.Some people may ask that the Trump administration is not clear. With China's volume and counterattack ability, it is impossible for the United States to be damaged or rarely damaged?
It is seen that Trump often claims in the tweet that only China will be damaged to China's tariffs, and the United States will only benefit. In order to emphasize this, he even said at the expense that the tariff battle will fight China to lie down in ChinaIn the United States, the United States is unscathed.
Obviously, Trump adheres to the thinking of zero -harmony on the trade war issue.From the perspective of gaming theory, there are three situations in the game when the game is in the game, namely the game, zero -harmony game and negative game.Zhenghe Games are lost in both sides. The difference is how much one party gains and losses.The zero -harmony game pursues its own absolute interests and absolute security, and the opponent's absolute failure.Negative and games are double losses, there is no winner.Most games belong to the game.In the case of the strength of the two sides of the game, zero -sum game is prone to occur.Negative and game -based games do not exist in reality, because no one wants to lose, but because the game is dynamic and affected by many factors, it will not be ruled out that the end of the double loses will not be eliminated, and this situation is not rare.Essence
The Trump administration has the intention of comprehensively curbing China. It is estimated that few people have doubted this, but which of its game with China?The British Luo Siyi's view of this is a negative and game. In his words, Trump's real goal is to double losses.His article was published on the observer.His central meaning is that if Trump wants to delay China's rise as a superpower, the trade war may be an effective means.If the damage to the United States is moderate, and the price paid by China is serious and long -lasting, Trump may draw such a conclusion: the previous loss can be acceptable.Based on this logic, geopolitics rather than maximizing the interests of the United States is Trump's real goal.
The Chinese Liberal Party, the former Director of the Economic and Commercial Policy Department of the United Kingdom, may not have a cold, because the senior researcher of the Chongyang Financial Research Institute of Renmin University often defended the Chinese government and criticized the United States.I agreed with him and felt that he said it thoroughly.I recently communicated with two American Chinese scholars.They also concluded a conclusion similar to Luo Siyi.These two scholars have lived in the United States for two or thirty years. In my opinion, they have long -term observation and research on American society, especially elites.
If Luo Siyi's political spectrum is left, then one of the two Chinese scholars can be called right. In the eyes of Chinese netizens, it is even a bit anti -Chinese, and the other position is neutral.The above -mentioned three people's views on the Trump administration and the American elites are so close, which does not seem to be a coincidence.
In fact, Zhang Yuyan mentioned earlier also noticed this in his article.He said that the American right -wing scholars who deal with him bluntly told him that the United States was damaged by fighting a trade war with China, but as long as China lost greater losses, the United States won.Zhang Yuyan also said that right -wing scholars in the United States have a deeper understanding of winning or losses, that is, whether it can re -construct a world system and make it conducive to the United States to ensure the gap with China.
Many people are talking about the Cold War today. They believe that the future world will form a system dominated by the United States and China in the field of science and technology.It can be called a new cold war appearing in the new situation in the new situation.Do Trump want to fight a new cold war with China?Thinking in his bones, but because of re -election, he may not have to make trouble with China.And his eagle team is different. They have mastered Washington's right to speak to China, and they have long wanted to conduct a comprehensive confrontation with China in addition to war (if necessary, they can also fight with China).
These eagles of the American elite have gone further on the basis of curbing China to become cross -party consensus.They believe that it is not enough to curb China, and it is a bit late to be blocked now. If five years or ten years, even if they are in the United States, they may not be able to curb China.If it cannot curb China, it will be the beginning of the American nightmare.The Chinese eagle's discussions and slogans have defeated the United States over the years, which proves their judgments and make them believe that from the perspective of ensuring the national interests of the United States, it is absolutely necessary to crack down on China and politics.
This can actually be considered that the U.S. hawks also have to bet with China to bet on the National Games. Although in the process, the United States will suffer a lot of losses in the United States in the process of gambling with China.Eight hundred, but in their opinion, the United States now has a comprehensive advantage of crushing China in economics, military, technology, values and alliance systems. It is not afraid of fighting this national operation with China, so that China will always be challenging the United States.The power of power, then the United States has won for a long time.
In other words, when the Trump administration launchs a trade war and scientific and technological war against China, it has considered China's retaliation considerations. Under the countermeasures of Chinese companies, farmers, and consumersCalculated this loss, but as long as it can drag China's development, China will never threaten the United States. It is always worthwhile.
From this point of view, if the leaders of the United States and China in late June at the G20 conference cannot reach a consensus on restart negotiations on the trade war and Huawei issues, Trump will impose tariffs on the remaining $ 300 billion commodities.It is likely to extend the current limit pressure measures from trade and technology to other fields.Even if it can reach a consensus, it is only time to delay the comprehensive confrontation between the two sides.However, the eagle school in the Trump administration will not make this time too long, because they know that the longer they drag, the more beneficial to China, the more difficult it is to hang China.Essence
It is not surprising to see the US -China double loser in the future.This may be a new type of Cold War that mixed with ideology, geopolitics and civilization until the victory.
