Xiao Qi: When we consider the macro impact in the context of the trade war, we should not only consider the impact of the Sino -US trade war on the real estate industry, and we must also consider how the fluctuation of the real estate industry will reverse the government decision -making.

In recent years, the impact of macro impact on the real estate industry has grown, and the frequency has become shorter and shorter.Especially with the process of the Sino -US trade war in 2018, the policy of setting the real estate industry will be dynamically adjusted almost every three months, and the changes in each key expression will cause developers, local governments, and financial institutions.A series of adaptation measures increase the difficulty of stable price, housing prices, and expected expectations.

A more complicated situation is that after the recent rounds of house prices rose, due to the larger scale of the real estate industry, the binding of the financial system deeper, the local government's land financial dependence was higher, which led the government to introduce any involving any real estate industry that involved the real estate industry.In policy, we must consider the impact on the stability of the overall economy and financial system.In other words, when we consider the macro impact in the context of the trade war, we are not just considering the impact of the Sino -US trade war on the real estate industry. We also need to consider how the fluctuation of the real estate industry will affect government decision -making in reverse.

To deduct the impact of the Sino -US trade war on the real estate industry, we need to clarify a tone. The more the government is worried about the impact of the trade war on the real economy, the more loose tendency, the more it will strengthen the supervision of the real estate industry on the financing side.And the more obvious the loose tendency is, the higher the urgency of observing funds through financial supervision policies to escalate funds to enter the real estate industry.

Several policy matching since last year has basically followed the above model.In April 2018, the ZTE incident was the beginning of the trade war. The central bank launched a one -percent point of targeted reduction in that month, followed by the new asset management regulations that have a fundamental impact on the real estate financing of the real estate industry; in June of the same year,As China and the United States began to increase tariffs on each other, the central bank once again declined again. The cooperative financing trend was that the Development and Reform Commission tightened the foreign debt of housing enterprises.Resolutely curb the rise in house prices.

The recent round of policy portfolio also conforms to this model. It has upgraded again in the May trade war. On May 6th, the central bank's targeted reduction was reduced, followed by the China Banking Regulatory Commission's 23rd introduction, and once again tightened real estate financing.

In summary, the policy ideas are actually very clear: if the trade war is upgraded, it will inevitably affect the real economy, and it is necessary to be introduced by supporting and loose policies. However, the result that the government does not want to loosen is that funds will be further inflow into the real estate field.In the past, as long as it is loose, whether it is reduced or interest rate cuts, the funds will definitely use various channels to run into real estate.In terms of, as long as you see that the large direction is loose currency, whether it is the head or small and medium -sized real estate companies, whether it is the investment of the investment, the financing side is looking for a pre -fusion work, or the marketing end is priced, and there is a confidence in my heart.Under the circumstances of multiple expectations, it is difficult to stabilize land prices and house prices.

Objectively speaking, with the introduction of the new rules of asset management in April 18th, the waterproof material used to patch to prevent running and dripping is indeed better and better, but considering that the trade war upgrade needs to be further expanded, some of the previous some of the previous some previously, some previousThe patch is a bit insufficient.The recent CBRC No. 23, including the real estate enterprise of the radical land king, has to tighten the financing channels, all of which belong to the action of strengthening patch. The follow -up of the overall loose measures will be introduced further. Similar actions will still be available.

Along this idea, the most obvious impact on the impact of real estate companies may be the issuance of foreign dollar bonds abroad.Since the Tightening of the Development and Reform Commission tightened in June last year, the US dollar bond issuance in the second half of the year has been sluggish for a period of time, but the issuance of USD bonds in the first few months of this year has rebounded significantly. The total scale is close to 40 billion U.S. dollars.More than 30%, it can be said that compared to the severe supervision of various financing channels in the country, the issuance of US dollar bonds has become a place outside the law.For the government, if there is indeed a tendency to further stimulate the real economy and patch the domestic real estate financing channels, then the overseas US dollar bond issuance channel will definitely strengthen control.

There is also a deeper consideration: the upgrade of the trade war, will it be upgraded into a financial war in the future?In the process of declined in foreign exchange reserves and China outflowing from China in 2016, the bidding and Moody -Moody -down reduction incident rated by Chinese state -owned enterprises and financial institutions. In view of the huge scale of the US dollar debt in the real estate industry, this similar situation occurred in this time.The real estate industry is not surprising, and if the point of occurrence is exactly at the peak period, the impact on the entire capital market must be defensive. It may even disrupt the overall strategic deployment of the government's response to the Sino -US trade war.Essence

In fact, even if the policy factors are not considered, the depreciation of the RMB caused by the trade war has pushed the cost of US dollar bonds, and the issuance of US dollar bonds has been affected since May.

The impact on the investment end of the real estate enterprise is relatively indirect, but the policy weighing is more complicated.The stable land investment in housing companies is important for the entire trade war. After all, in the background of the consumption and foreign trade growth rate of the three GDP carriages, the investment must be supported by real estate.It is also necessary to sell land to alleviate, which is also the role of compressor stones reflected in the real estate industry.Therefore, in addition to the tight policy tendency of the financing side analyzed above, the policy attitude faced by the investment end of the real estate enterprise should be more loose.

In fact, since October last year, with the ease of the Sino -US trade war, the central government's attitude towards real estate has also softened. The Central Economic Work Conference on December 19 has proposed that because of the policy of the city, it is clear that it is obviously on July 31st on July 31st.The Politburo Meeting resolutely curb the rising house prices.

This is another layer of policy logic brought by the trade war. If the negotiations are eased and the corresponding overall loose stimulation policy is not particularly urgent, then the supervision of the real estate industry can be properly put.As far as the government is concerned, during the easement period of trade negotiations, the most ideal model of the real estate industry is that real estate companies are still actively obtaining land and starting, and the sales side controls housing prices through limited prices.To reduce the burden on debt, on the other hand, housing prices do not rise or rising mildly can also stabilize expectations.This ideal balance lasted for a period of time since the end of last year, but the development of the situation is a bit beyond control.

It only takes a few weeks of the land market in some hot cities from mild recovery to rapid overheating. At the same time, as land prices are getting higher and higher, developers, or local governments, the expectations of loosening house prices have begun to improve steadily.By the mouth of the city's policy, various policy patches of the real estate industry have gradually broken through the real estate industry, and funds will also try to flow into real estate and break the balance.

In the final analysis, the multi -goal mixing together, it is very tested to the balanced art of policies.On the one hand, it is the time. With reference to the cycle of the US -Japan trade war, the Sino -US trade war may continue to slowly continue. In the process, whether it is the overall macro policy or the rhythm of the real estate policy,It is necessary to grasp it just right, otherwise it is easy to make the government very passive during the real estate market's fluctuations in response to the Sino -US trade war;

On the other hand, it is the scale. I hope that the developers will actively get the land and do not want the land market to be overheated. It hopes that local governments will sell land steadily to reduce their debt, but also do not want the local government to rely on real estate excessively.It is not hoped that the overly tightening of financing has caused some real estate enterprises to break the debt crisis. It is probably the biggest test of regulatory regulations for the balance of related policies related to the three parties.

In the context of the Sino -US trade war, a fundamental problem that cannot be avoided is that if the government is determined to boost the real economy and encourage manufacturing investment to upgrade.The final effect may still be unsatisfactory.The core of the problem is the risk -free return and is a rigid redemption.If the financing of the real estate industry is involved in the real estate industry, whether it is loans, bonds, trusts or funds, as long as the belief of rigid payments is not broken, the yield can still be maintained above 8%.Essence

This is why since the end of last year, after several rounds of orientation reduction, manufacturing investment in various places has no signs of warming, because on the one hand, new investment is risky to face insufficient demand, and on the other hand, it must bear high capital costs.Breaking the rigid redemption and lowering the whole society's risk -free yields is even more difficult to balance than short -term policy, and it takes more time.

At present, the government's intention in this regard is still very clear. While promoting the reform of the financial supply side, it has repeatedly emphasized that housing housing does not speculate and cooperates with the establishment of the long -term mechanism of the real estate industry.From this perspective, this is the most far -reaching impact of the Sino -US trade war on the entire ecology of the future real estate.

(The author is currently in charge of the Macro Research Department of a real estate company; former FT investment refers to the chief economist of China. This article only represents the author's point of view. Editor in charge of the email: [email protected])