Source: Taiwan Economic Daily

The British Prime Minister Theresa May resigned from the post of the Conservative Party on the 7th to make a period for her three years of stormy prime minister's career.The highest successor.Analysts warn that if the candidates for tough European sections take over as the Prime Minister, the pound may be degraded to two years.

The Conservative Party has launched the party leader selection procedure. The nomination stage will end on the 10th, and then the voting process will be launched.After Mey resigned, she would continue to serve as Prime Minister of the Cabinet Cabinet until the Conservative Party chose new leaders in the next few weeks.

The main axis of the conservative party leader is still the Brexit, and the candidates who have competed for the big position will be raced to express and explain their Brexit position.At present, the highest call candidate is still Johnson. He believes that regardless of whether or not, Britain should be Brexit before the period on October 31.Other popular candidates include the Minister of the Environment Grah and the Foreign Minister Han Te, who are both inclined to extend the Brexit period.

Analysts of Bloomberg's visit predict that if the hardliners who support hard Brexit win, the pound may depreciate more than 2%to $ 1.24, and the probability of this result will reach 70%, but the analysts still expect that other members will be associated with other members.Blotless Brexit is blocked to avoid the pound degradation expansion.The British pound appreciated 0.3%on the 7th to $ 1.2737.

Capata, chief currency strategist in the Ing Group, does not necessarily achieve hard Brexit even if the Prime Minister supports hard Brexit, and the hard Brexit does not seem to support most members in the British Parliament, so the new Prime Minister may soften the softeningYour own hard Brexit position.If Gev or Han Tye is coming, the pound is expected to rise to $ 1.30.Brexit positions have a lower relationship rate, which is only 30%, but the pound is also expected to rise to $ 1.30.

The worst situation of the British pound is the re -election of Congress and wins by the Labor Party. The pound may be degraded to $ 1.20. Observation after the EU Parliament election

After the European Parliament election, US President Trump went to the UK in early June to visit the country.Because the British Prime Minister Trysa May announced his resignation on June 7, and Trump also said that he supported the successor of the former London mayor and Boris Johnson's successor, causing criticism from all walks of life.Almost at the same time, due to the failure of the European Parliament's election, the French President Macron, which explained the policy throughout the country, has entered the party.The successor of the party in Erchin may not even be guaranteed, which is concerned about the future EU political trends and its influence.

The inventory will be found in the new territory of the European Parliament on the road in July.Taking the United Kingdom as an example, it is understandable that the voters are dissatisfied with the conservative party of ruling, but the Labor Party is not spared. Instead, the first trial cries.The party (Brexit Party) has a bright performance.Although the Danish anti -immigrant and geek ruling party defeated on June 6, it will be replaced by the left in the field, becoming another country in Northern Europe to go left to the left.In other words, the traditional left and right party alliances have not been disintegrated, but I am afraid that they must think about the following two issues and ask effective response countermeasures.

First of all, since the Brexit referendum and Trump's election in 2016, the populist party of populism has fully converted it into specific votes through the European people's dissatisfaction with the European people's dissatisfaction with the European people's dissatisfaction with immigrants and immigrants, unemployment, and abnormal rich and the poor.Even before the Austrian Deputy Prime Minister's election in the European Parliament, the European version of the Tong Russia was revealed, and Austria will be re -elected in September in September, but it has not significantly affected the votes of the far -right party.When voters are concerned about the national security issues involving the country's abroad and attach importance to the Islamic fear of social welfare for foreign immigrants, how to take into account Europe's human rights value and meet the needs of the people in social and economic needs.situation.

Secondly, the green rise phenomenon of European countries, this time the European Parliament's election vote rate is considered to be a big Green Party compared to five years ago, reflecting the tiredness of the younger generation and the middle class about the traditional political consciousness of traditional and the middle class.It is extreme climate change that affects them in the future.In other words, leaving the annoyance of the real and political world, the left and right, and the value of the more universal environmental protection and ecological conservation are the alternative choices that can be seen in the world this time.

Another aspect of observation is that the United States and Russia are using their different political influence to try to change the current political situation in Europe.On the one hand, Trump ’s previous strategist class farmers went to Europe to try to connect the political forces of the polar right. Before the European Parliament election, the 12 -rigated party leader of the Milan Council, the suspected European policy of anti -immigrants, would inevitably be in the future.Get a greater right to speak in the EU.

In terms of geographical politics, Russia and European countries have geographical relationships that are not cut in Russia and European countries compared with the United States.After the jasmine revolution that occurred in 2011 and occurred in North Africa and the Middle East in 2010, in 2014, Russia's Crimean Peninsula in Ukraine was undoubtedly the most important political and military crisis after the disintegration of the former Soviet Union.In 2016, the Brexit referendum and Trump's ordinary Russia, which is still boiling, was worried about the political ambitions of Western countries in Russia's interference and even changing the results of European and American elections.

The time for Trump to visit the UK is just between Prime Minister Trysa May's announcement and formal resignation. He did not hide his preference for the candidate of the next Conservative Prime Minister, which was in line with his always style.However, Trump, who has always been unhappy with Muslims, just arrived in the UK, and said that the current mayor of London and the second generation of Pakistan immigrants, Sadiq Aman Kahn, is Lu Snake.Instead of voting in a newspaper, he criticized him ignorance of Islam and compared him to fascists in the 20th century.

The United Kingdom is the softest meat in the European Union's diplomacy, and has an unspeakable relationship. This time, President Trump mentioned at a press conference held two days before Prime Minister Trya May.The British and American Free Trade Agreement; on the one hand, he reiterated his policy position that he has always supported Brexit, and on the other hand, he expressed his hope that American companies can participate in National Health Service.Before Trump's visit, after the United States and South Korea, British Telecom (BT) EERYTERYINGEENERYWHIRE became the first manufacturer to provide 5G services at the end of May at the end of May.But what is embarrassing is that the BBC conducted the first 5G news live broadcast. The photo of the reporter on the reporter was clearly taken by the Huawei logo equipment.And this has also become a major topic that observes the EU's future political direction.