The world outside the United States is also worried about the sanctions of unilateralism and protectionism in China.In today's economic globalization, a punitive tariff on China unilaterally will largely cause chaos in the production chain to disrupt the normal production plans of enterprises.
On May 10th, the United States announced that the tariff rate of US $ 200 billion in Chinese products increased from 10%to 25%, and said that if the trade negotiations did not progress, it would impose a 25%tariff on the remaining $ 300 billion Chinese goods.On May 15th, US President Trump signed an emergency administrative order to prohibit American companies from using telecommunications equipment produced by companies that risks national security.In this regard, China immediately stated that it had to take countermeasures.Although the two sides agreed to continue negotiations, the prospects of the Sino -US trade war seemed to be opaque.
Behind the Sino -US trade war is the dual structure of China's economy, and the United States' self -confidence and unconfident binary structural reflection in China.Although it is necessary to reduce the negative impact of the trade war on Sino -US relations and the Chinese economy, from the long -term perspective, the trade war has also attracted attention of this binary problem, and further highlights the necessity of accelerating the pace of reform.If it is used well, it is completely possible to transform the trade war into the promotion of China's economy to upgrade, and improve the good pressure of cooperation with countries outside the United States and global governance.
The economic friction between China and the United States is now generally referred to as a trade war. It seems that the problem of Sino -US is the feeling of trade imbalance and tariff friction.However, careful analysis will find that the United States requires China to make concessions in structural reforms and high -tech fields to obtain the tolerance of the United States for China's trade surplus, rather than to reduce the trade deficit.The fundamental problem lies in the duality of China's manufacturing industry, and the binary cognition of China's self -confidence and unconfident binary behind the United States.
One aspect of duality is that most Chinese manufacturing is still in a value chain with a low added value, and it is easier to find an import source country with alternatives.In other words, China is a major manufacturing country, but it has not yet reached the fundamental aspect of manufacturing power. This is the fundamental source of confidence in the United States to launch a trade war.Trump has always said that China has lost more than the United States in the Sino -US trade war, so it is worth it.This statement must have exaggerated ingredients, but it is not completely unhealthy.
According to the Japanese Economic News, after the United States began a trade war in China in 2019, the increase in the increase in the price index of the United States' consumer prices has not changed much. On the contrary, the price index of Chinese producers decreased year -on -year.This shows that the cost of increasing tariffs in the United States is actually borne by Chinese companies.Because 70%of products exported to the United States are exports of manufacturing with low added value, and the United States can be replaced from other countries, American consumers have not really felt pain (of course, the situation may change in the long run).
In contrast to this, Chinese consumers go abroad to buy or buy foreign goods on the Internet. For example, Chinese tourists appearing in Japan some time ago, products from rice cookers to toilet lids are different.
This shows that China's manufacturing industry cannot meet the demand for higher quality products for Chinese consumers. On the other hand, most of the exports are still mainly low -end.Therefore, the Chinese government proposed that the future reform focus is to solve the problem of supply side, which is accurately judged to judge the problem of China's economy.The current problem is not to say that China has no domestic demand, but that high -quality supply cannot keep up; and the inertia and inertia of traditional and low -end production still hopes to export to markets such as the United States.
The second aspect of China's manufacturing binary is that China has reached the world's top level in some high -precision technology fields.Represented by Huawei and other companies, these high -tech fields include data, networks, artificial intelligence, large aircraft, etc. The United States believes that these high -tech has begun to seriously challenge the US technical hegemony.Since last year, the United States has systematically prevented China's high -tech development through the National Defense Authorization Law.For example, around the application of 5G technology, the U.S. government requires not only the country, but also the allies to reject the use of Chinese technology.
In fact, many of the accusations of the United States on China are not based on objective evidence. This is why the European Union and other countries and regions should be attached to the United States on the one hand.Chinese technology.Germany, Britain, etc. have not adopted policies to completely exclude Chinese technology.The United States' use of traditional tariff sanctions to restrict China's high -tech development is on the other hand. On the other hand, it reflects its profound uneasiness and unconfidence in the monopoly position of the high -tech field.
Transform the trade war into a good pressure
In fact, the above -mentioned dual structure has been seen very clearly before Trump ruling.Many analysts are worried that the trade war may lead to a substantial slowdown in China's economy. However, the Chinese economic slowdown is not only after the trade war, and the Chinese leadership can be said to have a clear and accurate understanding of this.
At the end of 2015, the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China pointed out that the difficulties and problems we face are indeed directly related to the impact of the foreign cause of the international financial crisis, but the internal causes are decisive. , Structural, institutional contradiction hell; hellip; Since the current problem is not periodic, it is impossible to achieve a V -type rebound through short -term stimulation, my country's economy may experience a L -type growth stage.
We have to prepare for a long -lasting war, dare to experience painful suffering, appropriately increase the shift to reduce the speed tolerance, first build the bottom, and then pick up.We must face up to difficulties, clarify directions, firm confidence, and work together to strengthen the institutional motivation and internal living power hellip; hellip; also require adjusting the economic structure to completely abandon the original old thinking and methods to reproduce high growth.
First of all, China's reform direction and determination mainly originated from internal causes. This itself has no direct relationship with the trade war. It is an inevitable result of better and higher quality development and life in China itself.It is obviously expressed.The high -speed development of China's reform and opening up, especially after joining the World Trade Organization, is indeed due to economic globalization. It is mainly due to the advantage of the cost of labor costs and the opportunities for low value -added industries in developed countries.Great country.
However, after the financial crisis in 2008, the phenomenon of uneven global dividend distribution within developed countries is superficialized. Political populism and economic protectionism have risen.The market is shrinking.
At the same time, the labor cost of China's development has risen, and the labor cost advantages of other post -developed countries have further oppressed the profit margin of China's exports.Coupled with the improvement of the Chinese people with improved living standards, they are dissatisfied with the growth of the original cost of resource consumption and environmental sacrifice, which means that the Chinese economy is stressed and challenged by the internal and external pinching, and the abdomen.
This pressure is mainly endogenous. Because of the urgency of this internal pressure, the Chinese government proposed the goal of manufacturing power and the plan of Made in China 2025., But this requires some leading industries and enterprises to lead and demonstrate.Unfortunately, this is interpreted in the United States as a technical hegemony with the United States, and even global hegemony.
However, China's focus is on solving most of the problems in China's economic duality, and it is still in the low -end structural contradictions, and the United States' focus is on China's leading position in a few high -tech fields.In this sense, the two sides have a cognitive gap.
Second, the world outside the United States is also worried about the unilateral face of unilateralism and protectiveism in China.In today's economic globalization, the United States unilaterally impose punitive tariffs on China, which will largely cause confusion in the production chain and disrupt the normal production plans of enterprises.The United States appreciates Brexit in Brexit and requires re -negotiating the North American Free Trade Agreement. It has re -revised the US -South Korea Free Trade Agreement, withdrawing from the Cross -Pacific Partnership Agreement (TPP).Measures for tariffs or implementation quantities.
The United States, such as multilateralism and tendencies, runs counter to the ideas of most countries.In fact, these unilateral measures in the United States violate the principles of the World Trade Organization. From the long -term perspective, it is actually to destroy the US -led multilateral economic governance framework after the war.
From the perspective of China, on the one hand, we must continue to negotiate with the United States, and strive to reduce negative impact in the short term. On the other hand, we must consider strengthening interaction with the world outside the United States, such as promoting regional comprehensive economic partnerships (RCEP), China, Japan and South KoreaThe free trade zone must even consider the comprehensive progress agreement (CPTPP) dominated by Japanese -led cross -Pacific partners when the timing is relatively mature to achieve the prototype of the Asia -Pacific Free Trade Zone.External pressure, eventually tolerate the United States into regional and global free trade mechanisms.
In addition to the economic field, the United States withdraws from the Iranian Agreement, and under the jurisdiction of the US dollar advantages and judicial long -arm threatening other countries to stop normal economic exchanges with Iran.At present, China has stated that it will continue to buy Iranian oil, and EU countries are establishing a new payment mechanism that does not settle in US dollars to maintain this agreement.Similarly, the world outside the United States must be displayed and can continue to cooperate without US leadership.
The author is an associate professor at the National Niigata University in Japan, a senior researcher at the regional and global institute of Global Governance of Beijing Foreign Studies University
