Guo Liangping: The dispute between China and the United States exists

Current affairs perspective

Different from the trade war between the United States and other capitalist countries, the current trade war between China and the United States is related to the direction of the national movement and world order of the two countries, and we must take it seriously.

China's current countermeasures are likely to lay their position in the future world.If it is handled well, China's National Games will continue to rise, and the handling is not good. The two sides will hurt the vitality, leading to the breakdown of the global order, and the world has entered a era of unexpected and difficult expectations.

On the surface, the United States is aggressive, and it only has the power of fighting in China without returning the power; but from a deep analysis, Trump is likely to be the gospel of China.With the priority of the United States, he fully attacked the world and launched a sharp trade war offensive.

In just a few months, the European Union and Mexico were defeated in succession, Canada could not help it soon, and Japan and South Korea could not support it.In the situation of breaking bamboo, the United States is determined to win the battle of China.For a while, China was full of sorrows and pessimism spreading; some people advocated surrender, and those who knew the current affairs were Junjie; some advocated desperately, and the old beauty was too deceiving.

The most important thing now is not to panic and self -confusion; there must be a constant force to make static braking.The key here is not to exaggerate the impact of the trade war.The Chinese are used to the thinking of the national system, and it is easy to exaggerate the threat of foreign.Trade conflicts are commonplace in the history of world economy. There is no need to worry about it.According to a number of estimates, even if Trump has fully war and impacts all tariffs on imports from China, its impact on China's GDP's growth is less than a percentage point.

Unlike the closed -locking country in the Mao Zedong era, China is now in the center of the world economy and has many responses; many internal dangers are also controllable under the China system.China must have confidence and confidence, but not blindly confident.

Why is Trump the gospel of China?First of all, the trade war brings external pressure to China, forcing China to upgrade and increase the efforts of reform; it can also help overcome the resistance of reform, thereby turning danger into machines, and once again practicing the wisdom of the ancestors of the old ancestors.At present, the United States seems to return to its peak, and its various advantages are revealed.

This gives China an opportunity to recognize itself again, so that these years have been awakened by the praise of others and blowning up, and take the shortcomings and shortcomings exposed seriously, and make persistent efforts to make up for low growth with high -quality growth.

Secondly, the basis for Trump's trade war is an outdated concept.In the era of a new round of technological revolution and new technologies and new industries in various countries, Trump led the United States to compete for the sunset industry of steel, coal, and manufacturing in the 19th century.His outdated trade outlook reflects his international industrial chain that has formed under globalization, as well as the lack of understanding of the complicated mutual dependence between countries.

From the perspective of the supplier, a large part of China's export to the United States is foreign processing products, including a large number of American merchants, and tariff damage is mainly their interests.From the perspective of the demand side, a large number of ordinary people in the United States relied on the cheap and good consumer goods imported from China.

Their meager salary is very sensitive to the price of daily necessities, and it is difficult to sustain the price of prices slightly.Rising prices will inevitably cause pressure on wages and squeeze the profits of capital.Most of the working class in the United States has not increased their salary for decades; in recent years, the middle class in the United States has shrunk sharply, and has fallen to less than 50 % of the total population. It reflects the situation of this kind of housekeeping.The trade war is not good for the labor and capital of the United States, and will eventually affect the election campaign.Once the ticket warehouse is threatened, no matter what politicians will turn.

Again, time is on the side of China.Even if China's per capita income is still lower than the United States, China's population is more than four times that of the United States, and the market capacity will soon exceed the United States.The US market has long matured, and consumers are often more conservative. Chinese consumer markets are mainly young people. They have no conservative ideas and pursue novelty, making China the trend of consumption and consumption methods in China; new products and new industries are easierOpen the situation in China.

This greatly enhances the attractiveness of the Chinese market and enhances China's soft power.Trump's confidence in the world's major trade war comes from the huge market in the United States, and this confidence will be transferred to China in the near future.

Finally, the most important thing is that Trump gave China a political rise.The Trump administration attacked all sides, fighting for decades after the war, Mdash, which accumulated for decades after the war, MDASH; MDASH; Xinyi, Moral Senior, huge international rules, organizations, and systems.These are more precious than economic and military strength, and are a must -have for a modern superpower.

Once you lose these, the United States will really go downhill, and Trump's policy is leading the US National Games.On the other hand, China is exploring its role positioning on the world stage, which requires a long trial and error stage.

In terms of ideology, culture, strategic tactics, national experience, and hard strength, China is not ready, and it will take time to accumulate.Trump gave China this time, and also destroyed and disintegrated the post -war order established by the United States itself, giving China a space for adjustment and actions.

China should be in business with Trump

Whether you can fulfill the gospel of Trump depends on whether China can seize this opportunity to achieve key improvements.How should China use this opportunity?

The Asian financial crisis in 1997 greatly increased China's international prestige and status.At that time, China insisted on not depreciating the RMB and actively provided assistance to the affected countries that better than the International Monetary Fund. It showed a large country with responsible, reliable, affinity and leadership.

This crisis is for China, which is a test for China and an opportunity to improve.In response, China must overcome the impulse to overcome opportunities, adhere to principles, pay attention to credit, maintain axiom and morality, fairness and public, less small abacus, more big abacus, and safeguard their own interests rationally and fairly.

So far, the Chinese government's response is appropriate and moderate, and the asking price of Trump is not angry or concession. He has a positive attitude towards the negotiations, and he does not take the RMB value to make an article or retaliate with the US company in China.

Although there are many politicians who want to push Sino -US relations to the Cold War, Trump mainly uses the eyes of businessmen to measure trade relations. This is why he takes one sides and treats traditional allies in China and the United States.Although he also wanted to force foreign companies in China to return to the United States or move to other countries to curb the momentum of China's development, unlike many politicians and conspirators behind him, he was not mainly a trade war from politics and ideology.

China should adopt a strategy of businessman, try to avoid stirring political factors, let alone fall into an ideological battle.Trump knows more about business language; talking to him for business scriptures can win his respect.

But China must also see the advantages of the US system: it is not something president can destroy.The other two branches of the US government, especially in American society, contain huge energy.China's power is almost concentrated in the government and the ruling party. Once the government collapses, society will become a scattered sand.The United States is different. Its deepest power is in the people. Even if the government rotes, the country will not collapse. Instead, it can regenerate and become stronger.When comparing China and the United States, forgetting this will make a big mistake.

It is foreseeable that Trump's policy will be rebounded sooner or later; many of his policies and practices will be overturned, just like his policy of overthrowing his former President Obama.The status and prestige of the United States in the world can also be restored. Trump's time and space for China are limited.

The bottleneck of self -improvement in China is the lack of innovation in politics.It can't get decent things to compete with free capitalism and democracy.Although Western liberalism has encountered many difficulties at the level of operation and system, values (so -called universal values) are still widely circulated. It is the mainstream values of the world. If you open it with it, you will be in isolated.

On the contrary, China should learn from its reasonable core.Actually, China is freedomThe main values of freedom, human rights, rule of law, democracy, and tolerance have made great progress, and China's economic take -off is inseparable from these.

However, China ’s clearly attacked universal value, so that he easily carried the fame, such as dictatorship, and giving the hostile forces on the reason that it was united to reintegrate the Cold War.This is the grievance.

Although the Western model is already full of holes, China's political system is still lacking attraction in the world.China's return in ideology in recent years reflects theoretical and spiritual poverty, which cannot produce soft power.Different to the role of a big country in contemporary contemporary nations, unlike the historical empires that rely on the golden iron horses and strong ships, they must be more royal and overbearing.In addition to seeking common interests, the so -called Wang Dao must be in response. At least do not violate the mainstream values and moral outlook, and occupy the height of morality.This is the real test of China.

The author is a senior researcher at the East Asia Research Institute of Singapore