(Bloomberg, New York) The People's Bank of China announced the fourth time of the rally this year the day before yesterday. From the 15th of this month, a percentage point of most banks has been reduced by one percentage point, and it is expected to release 750 billion yuan (about S $ 151 billion) funds.Experts analyze that although China has a strong currency depreciation and inspiration, it will be implemented in its own way.
Bloomberg columnist Ren Shuli (transliteration, Shuli Ren), inscribed in the shortness of mind: The RMB will go to a soft column article in China that the pressure of the Sino -US trade war has brought about the pressure on the Chinese economy.In September, manufacturing activities fell to the lowest level in 16 months.As the Federal Reserve is expected to raise interest rates for the fourth time this year, the Central Bank of China has decided to reduce its ramen for the fourth time, and on the surface, the latter is on the opposite road.However, Ren Shuli warned that China's method of depreciation of the currency usually moved quietly or suddenly attacked.
She believes that as the People's Bank of China pointed out in the second statement issued by the People's Bank of China in the latest policy adjustment: The impact of the reduction on liquidity is still neutral.Secondly, it is unclear how many new funds will enter the banking system. Therefore, it is too early to determine whether China is relaxing the policy.Unless the People's Bank of China supports its loose positions through open market operations, it will be meaningless to reduce the ra (.
Ren Shuli pointed out that since the reform of the remittance in August 2015, the sharp weakening of RMB has occurred at the time when foreign exchange reserves are basically stable, especially when it has fallen by about 10%from early April to mid -August this year.
During the Golden Week holiday, the hidden yield of the offshore RMB increased by 7%in one month, setting the highest level in more than a year.The author predicts that the cost of short RMB may soon become high.
She also reminded that the People's Bank of China has a new tool in Hong Kong when he compete with shorts.On September 20, the Hong Kong Financial Authority agreed to allow the People's Bank of China to issue RMB valuation bonds in the offshore market.The rise in offshore RMB yields may prevent speculation.
The impact of the trade war on China's economy shows
Another article entitled by the central bank's great efforts to surrender to support the Chinese economy, saying that there are signs that the Chinese economy is weaker.The author Shu Chang pointed out that the influence of the Sino -US trade war has begun to appear.Although the latest round of US import tariffs was implemented at the end of September, the export classification index in the manufacturing procurement manager index (PMI) has deteriorated sharply.
According to the analysis of the article, the Bank of China has declined this time to strengthen its support for economic growth, because the recent promotion of growth measures has not shown signs of reversing economic slowdown.
He predicts that China will continue to implement supporting monetary policy in the future, and this year will not rule out the possibility of further reduction.However, this significant adjustment has reduced the necessity of lowering or interest rate cuts in a short period of time.The focus of the policy will be to clear the loan channel and improve the transmission of more supportive policies.Fiscal support is also expected to strengthen, especially in infrastructure expenditure.
The author said that in the context of the upgrading of the trade war and the slowdown in economic growth, currency easing may exacerbate the downward pressure of the RMB.In recent months, the Central Bank of China has a multi -pronged approach, maintaining the general stability of the exchange rate, including stable intermediate prices, providing window guidance and intervention in the offshore market to banks.The People's Bank of China will not allow the RMB to depreciate quickly at this time because this may trigger a panic response in the market.However, from a longer time dimension, the depreciation of the allowable exchange rate to a certain extent is obviously a policy choice.
