Trump had to succeed North American negotiating sword finger in China and Japan

Author: Xu Junbin

The United States and Canada have reached a consensus on the architecture and connotation of the Free Trade Agreement. After 25 years, the North American Free Trade Zone will be renamed the US -Canada -Mexico Trade Agreement.Canada and the United States have reached a consensus not only means that President Trump will go down in the bilateral trade policy, but also means that the United States may have an advantage in the face of trade negotiations between Japan and China.

At the beginning of his term of office, Trump announced to the American people, especially the rust and agricultural districts that supported his rust and agricultural areas to promote the US priority policy and lead the US economy back to glory., Mexico, Japan, China and the European Union.The negotiations of Canada and Mexico are now allowing Trump and the Republican Party to master more winning chips in the US midterm elections.

The negotiations in the United States and Canada have reached a consensus, which works on behalf of Trump's trade negotiation strategies.The most noticeable projects in the US -Canada trade negotiations include the increase in the proportion of automobiles, Canada's restrictions on the US supply chain of the United States, and the regular review regulations and settlement of new agreements.Among them, the dairy supply chain restrictions relax the most challenges to Canada. The dairy industry chain provides more than 220,000 job opportunities in Canada, contributing to nearly $ 20 billion to GDP.

The Canadian government established the agricultural product supply chain system in the 1970s, covering dairy products, eggs, chickens, turkey, etc., hoping to use the operation of this supply system to make the Canadian cheese farmers industry stable and price stability, and ensure related foodsThe security of security also makes foreign cheese farmers unable to enter the Canadian market because of this strict supply chain system.

Faced with trade negotiations with the United States, on the one hand, the Canadian government wants to ensure that cars produced in Canada can be sold smoothly to the United States. On the one hand, they also want to maintain the dairy supply chain system, which has become a negotiation and defense between the United States and Canada.In order to reduce the US trade deficit, Trump actively conduct bilateral negotiations with trade opponent countries. After handling the Perfect North American countries, the United States should give priority to Japan and China.

On September 24, Japanese Prime Minister Abe met with Trump and reached a consensus on negotiations between the two countries to launch the US -Japan Free Trade Agreement.The biggest problem in Japan and the United States is agriculture and cars. The two countries have played against these two major issues during the TPP negotiation process.It took 30 years to completely reduce the car import tariffs to zero.Although the United States later withdrawn from TPP, from the discussion between Japan and the United States, the two countries will negotiate bilateral trade agreements on the basis of TPP in the past.

For China, after Trump's launch of the third wave of tariff trade sanctions, the trade conflict between the United States has not seen no signs of alleviating, and the leaders of the two countries have no chance to meet at present, which will cause the Sino -US trade conflict to fall into an deadlock.Essence

Judging from the negotiations of the United States and Canada FTA, in the face of the close industrial chain between the three countries and the high dependence of the two countries to the United States, Trump's tough attitude has made the United States advantage.

Compared with the future US -Japan negotiations, the United States may also take Japan's nose, but it may not work for China. After all, the economic and trade industry between China and the United States is closely intertwined and the dependence of each other is high.Excessive toughness is still not easy to get concessions from China.

Faced with the trend of free trade negotiations in the world and regional, regardless of regional or bilateral, for the close connection between Taiwan and the global economic and trade industry chain, we need to carefully evaluate the possible impact of US -Japan, the United States and China trade interaction on Taiwan. The topic of negotiation can also be used as a reference for my country's future to participate in regional economic integration negotiations.

(Author is an associate researcher at the Emerging Market Development Research Center of the Taiwan Economics Academy)