Society: The risk of upgrading the trade war cannot be underestimated

Society

Under the slogan of fair trade, US President Trump re -negotiated the trade agreement with trading partners.At midnight on September 30, the United States and Canada reached an agreement in the last minute to replace the previous North American Free Trade Agreement in the United States MDASH; Mexico MDASH; the Canadian agreement.

This is another victory that Trump has achieved in trade policies after the United States and South Korea signed a new trade agreement last week.But this does not mean that the trade war is about to stop.In fact, the Trump administration is likely to pursue a victory and put pressure on China to perform extreme pressure. The risk of upgrading the Sino -US trade war cannot be underestimated.

After a new trade agreement to the United States, Trump said in a press conference in the White House that Japan and India now hope to negotiate with the United States, and China is also very eager to negotiate with the United States.However, he pointed out that it is too early to negotiate with China and say: In politics, if people are eager to achieve success, you will not talk about the next good agreement for our workers and the country.

Trump also emphasized that the practice of forcing other countries to re -negotiate trade agreements through a tough tariff position has proven it is necessary.In fact, the United States has levied tariffs to imported goods of US $ 25 billion in Chinese imports, and threatened to impose tariffs on Chinese imported products with a total value of 267 billion US dollars.

This amount is equivalent to the total amount of goods imported from China from China.However, Trump believes that the United States' tariffs on China are not enough to force China to concessions on the negotiating table.

Secondly, the White House economic adviser Kudelo pointed out that after the United States and traditional allies such as Canada and South Korea's new trading agreement, trade alliances with the same goal as the United States are formed, hoping to correct China's wrong behavior.

In fact, if Mexico or Canada conduct trade negotiations with non -market economy countries, the United States has the right to terminate the United States MDash; Mexico MDASH; Canada Agreement.

The United States' pressure on China through tariff measures and trade alliances is likely to cause a rebound in China.Although China has repeatedly stated that there is no winner in the trade war, it still makes corresponding countermeasures on the US tariffs on the United States.

EssenceTrump threatened that tariff measures played a role in trade negotiations.However, the Chinese government recently emphasized that Sino -US trade negotiations cannot be carried out under the threat of tariffs.China has also canceled a new round of trade negotiations with the United States at the end of September.

Looking back on the trade disputes since this year, the protectionist remarks have transformed into actual trade barriers.The impact of tariff measures on the global economy has gradually appeared.The president of the International Monetary Fund Lagarde said that the increase in trade barriers continued to increase uncertainty, which not only damaged trade, but also damaged investment and manufacturing.The International Monetary Fund will reduce the forecast of global economic growth next week.

The trade war is not available, the first to be the re -layout of the global supply chain.Over the past years, investors have used the comparative advantages of various economies to establish a global supply chain with high economic benefits.However, the emergence of tariff measures and trade groups makes investors no longer fully deploy according to comparative advantages.

The re -layout of the supply chain may benefit some economies in the short term, but in general, trade barriers have increased production costs, which ultimately affect corporate profitability and consumer purchasing power.

Under the new trade agreement between the United States and Mexico and Canada, at least 40%of the auto parts must be produced by workers with a hourly salary of not less than 16 US dollars.Although this provision protects the job positions of the American automobile industry, it also improves the production cost and sales price of American automobiles.

In addition, if American consumers buy foreign -imported cars, they must pay the additional costs brought by trade barriers.

On the other hand, the continuous trade war may cause the global economy into the risk of stagnation.Trade barriers have comprehensively increased production costs and the prices of consumer goods, leading to an increase in inflation rate.In addition, it has slowed down the global economic growth.The risk of inflation and the risk of stagflation caused by the simultaneous presentation of the inflation rate and the slowdown of the economic slowdown is the worst combination.Global economic imbalances have risked the risk of stagnation.

The United States is currently under strong economic growth, rising interest rates, and strong dollars.This forces emerging economies to raise interest rates to stop the outflow of funds and support currency exchange rates, but this will also slow down their economic growth.Emerging economies of currency are currently plunge, and the global financial market is in a state of disturbance, and it will eventually affect developed economies.

Whether the trade war will ease with the mid -term elections held in the United States in November, it is still unknown.However, due to the pressure on China to put pressure on China, we should still prepare for the upgrade of the trade war.