Zhang Rui

Breaking through the fog of trade protectionism, tearing off the iron curtain of unilateralism, breaking through the beach that is against globalization, the flames of geopolitical politics, the pace of M & A in the business capital extended to all corners of the world.According to the latest data from Thomson Reuters, as of now, the global mergers and acquisitions transactions have reached 3.24 trillion US dollars this year, a year -on -year increase of 40%, a record high in history, and there is no suspense in 2018 to break the annual historical records of the year.

The total plate is not enough to fresh the fierceness of mergers and acquisitions.Statistics show that the average amount of mergers and acquisitions projects so far this year has reached 1.07 billion US dollars, which is higher than the level of any year in history. At the same time, the behemoths of the industry are in the air under the tide of mergers and acquisitions.The acquisition of Mengshan Metropolis has produced the world's largest seeds and pesticides manufacturers; Barick Gold, Canada acquired Rand Gold Resources Company, which has spawned the world's largest gold miners;The world's largest media company.

Preliminary statistics, this year's huge mergers and acquisitions worth more than $ 5 billion, accounting for 44%of the total transaction volume.

According to the regional division, the total mergers and acquisitions of the Japanese, the United States, and European companies in the first half of this year totaled 381.6 billion US dollars, of which US companies were US $ 175.1 billion, accounting for 46%of the total amount; Japanese companies followed closely, reaching 112.2 billion U.S. dollars,It accounts for 29%of the total amount, which is higher than US $ 94.1 billion and 25%.

In addition, although the amount of mergers and acquisitions in Asian companies other than Japan is inferior to the United States and Europe, the share in the global mergers and acquisitions has increased to 35%, which is 12 percentage points higher than 10 years ago;It fell 14 percentage points from 10 years ago.

Obviously, the United States and Japan have become the most active country in global capital mergers and acquisitions.Counting the increase in mergers and acquisitions in the first half of the year, as of now, the total cross -border merger and acquisition of the United States has reached 1.3 trillion US dollars, and the probability of breaking the historical records throughout the year has greatly increased.Similarly, Japan not only reached a record high in the first half of this year, but also reached a record high, and as many as 340 corporate mergers and acquisitions also refreshed the peak of the same period over the same period.There are 13 rare in Japanese history.

The reason why the US and Japan companies can stand in the global multinational M & A camp, first of all, thanks to the special fiscal, financial and monetary policy arrangements of the two countries.Take the United States, for example, the Federal Reserve ’s interest rate hikes have continued, and the US dollar has entered a rising channel. It has appreciated 6%since this year. The strong purchasing power formed by the US dollar, coupled with unparalleled special status, is directly assembled into an American company's overseas mergers and acquisitions overseas mergers and acquisitions.Strong engine.

More importantly, Trump has carried out large -scale tax reform in China. While the corporate income tax rate decreased from 35%to 21%, the cash tax rate of multinational companies returning to the United States has also greatly reduced by 19.5%.

The two actions have produced black holes in the same way to multinational companies outside the United States, that is, on the one hand, it attracts a large number of companies to turn to the United States, and on the other hand, the funds that attract American overseas companies have returned to their homeland.For transnational companies operating in the United States, there are two main ways to invest in new companies and buy equity. The latter is not only low in cost compared to the former, but also the speed of entering the US market is fast.Many non -US companies are the best choice to the US market.

In addition, according to statistics from the General Administration of Taxation, the total profit deposited overseas overseas in US companies is about US $ 3 trillion. Among them, the funds that flow back to the United States in the first half of this year reached US $ 510 billion.In addition to debt repayment and capital expenditure, a considerable part of the equity mergers and acquisitions transactions.

Japanese monetary policy promotes overseas mergers and acquisitions

Compared with the United States, although the yen in the Japanese government's hands is not as strong as the US dollar, the Bank of Japan has always promoted loose monetary policy to maintain low interest rates for several years.The level of negative 0.1%and about zero, thereby creating a low -cost financing environment for the overseas mergers and acquisitions of the enterprise.At the same time, the Bank of Japan has mainly invested in the domestic debt market in the past few years, but this investment method has a low return and will bring interest rates.

In contrast, the Bank of Japan is more willing to lend funds to the acquisition of funds that can bring higher returns. Japanese companies have become more confident.

In fact, in addition to relying on preferential policies, US -Japanese companies also show their strong M & A ability and business confidence due to their abundant cash.Observation found that with the improvement of economic fundamentals, the US stock market has continuously reached a record high, and the Japanese stock market has reached the highest point of nearly 30 years. While listed companies are growing, the market value is increasing.The remaining grains are becoming more and more abundant.

Statistics show that the cash reserve of non -financial listed companies in the United States exceeds US $ 2 trillion, of which the top 24 listed companies control the cash reserves of US $ 1.12 trillion. Similarly, according to Japanese Economic News, Japanese listed companiesAt present, the cash on hand has reached 12.0 trillion yen. Based on the calculation of 500 major listed companies, the company's cash account for 11%of total assets, which is higher than the United States.

Here we must emphasize that there is a positive correlation with market M & A transactions, that is, the stronger the financial status, the more conducive to the company's mergers and acquisitions.And profitability.

It is worth noting that it is completely different from that companies such as the United States and Japan in the global mergers and acquisitions markets are completely different, and China's overseas mergers and acquisitions seem to be in a low tide.Data from the 2018 Chinese Enterprise Cross -border M & A annual report from the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology showed that the number of cross -border mergers and acquisitions transactions in Chinese companies in the first half of this year decreased by 42 from the same period of the previous year, and the scale of transaction funds decreased by 18%, and this is also this is also this.After the overseas mergers and acquisitions of Chinese companies hit a historical high two years ago, the decline in four consecutive months.

It is even more noteworthy that the overseas mergers and acquisitions of Chinese private enterprises, which have been in a state of volume growth in the past, have also appeared to have a small degree of contraction. In the first half of this year, the number of mergers and acquisitions of transactions fell by 26%month -on -month, and the amount fell by 30%.

Indeed, the tightening of overseas business mergers and acquisitions has constituted a lot of constraints on multinational mergers and acquisitions of Chinese enterprises. Among them, the United States not only strengthened the authority of the Foreign Investment Commission (CFIUS), but also formulated a foreign investment risk review modernization bill (FIRMMA), resultingChinese companies' investment in the United States fell more than 70%in the first half of this year;

At the same time, as the most active country in Europe in Europe in Europe, Germany also launched a new regulations for reviewing local strategic enterprises for non -EU companies, and for the first time, it was suspended that Chinese companies acquired power grid operations on the grounds of security.Part of the shares of the Shang 50 Hertz Company.

However, we need to point out that the contraction of overseas mergers and acquisitions overseas in Chinese companies is not exactly caused by the policy adjustment of European and American countries, which is largely due to the requirements of deleveraging in China.Compared with it, while overseas mergers and acquisitions cool down, the amount of mergers and acquisitions transactions in Chinese companies in China has also fallen by 27%this year.It is a sign of the corporate return to rationality on the road to capital expansion.

From a global perspective, the general trend of cross -border mergers and acquisitions is irreversible, and overseas mergers and acquisitions are important ways to achieve curve overtaking.For Chinese companies, temporary slowing down does not mean that it will be stagnant forever.In the case of increasingly harsh overseas policy environment, Chinese enterprises need to calm down their hard work to practice technological innovation.

It should be noted that the capital giant is not necessarily a strong market, but the technical arm must be the business king.Only in the international merger and acquisition market, the effect of responding to the response in the international M & A market.

The author is a director of the Chinese Society of the Chinese Market, a professor of economics at the University of Foreign Trade from Guangdong and a graduate mentor

The contraction of Chinese companies' overseas mergers and acquisitions is not entirely caused by the policy adjustment of European and American countries, which is largely due to the requirements of deleveraging in China.Compared with it, while overseas mergers and acquisitions cool down, the amount of mergers and acquisitions transactions in Chinese companies in China has also fallen by 27%this year.It is a sign of the corporate return to rationality on the road to capital expansion.