Since China ’s reform and opening up, although Sino -US economic and trade relations have repeatedly controversial, in most cases, they can be resolved peacefully. Even if the outbreak of disputes is only within a very local area.However, in April of this year, the Sino -US trade war began officially. At present, China ’s up to $ 25 billion in US -U.S. -U.S. -US products have been levied punitive tariffs. The US $ 110 billion in China has also implemented tariffs against China.
For a while, the two largest trading countries in the world broke out with the largest trade war ever, and it still became more and more trend.
Regarding the Sino -US trade war, domestic and foreign media have paid attention to.However, the author has a considerable objection to many current analysis and believes that they have obvious misunderstandings.Here, I put forward their own views for readers to criticize.
The current popular point of view is that the United States is currently from politicians to the people, from business circles to academic circles. It is quite negative to China. Therefore, the trade war is more like the last roar from the United States.
In fact, the main concern of the American people, as always, is more concerned about domestic affairs. It is more influenced by the media and shows a certain volatility.According to the polls of the US media and think tanks, the proportion of positive attitudes to China has declined, but within the scope of historical reasonable fluctuations, it is far from reaching the point where all the people hate China.Politicians have performed relatively aggressively. Recently, several anti -China proposals have been passed in a high proportion of the two hospitals.
However, we should notice that in general, there is a subtravity law: when politics is not engaged in things, and things are not politically.In other words, whether it is the Democratic Party or the Republican Party in the past, the policy of China is quite restrained. When living in the opposition party, it will in turn to propose a provocative proposal.
In 2018, it was very special. The Republican Party led by Trump changed the situation of friendship with China in 2017 and adopted a radical series of policies to China. As a result, China and the United States have not had any major conflict.The politics suddenly made anti -China moves.
Therefore, if the Democratic Party's Hillary is in power, Sino -US relations are likely to be nervous, just like the development trend of Obama's second term.However, Trump's prestigious practice has indeed made the world a shocking world, including the American observers.
The second misunderstanding is that the US -funded enterprise that has long been a cockpit of Sino -US relations, and is no longer willing to speak for China.In fact, this statement does not have a sufficient basis. American -funded enterprises are still the main body of Sino -US relations, but for the Trump administration, there is no obvious effect in the short term.
It is true that according to the reports of many foreign chambers of commerce (including the United States) in China, foreign investors generally complain that the Chinese market is tightening towards them, but in this Sino -US trade friction, they still oppose Sino -U.S.confrontation.
For example, in the statement of accusing China of the transfer of technology transfer, the US -China Chamber of Commerce questionnaire results showed that only 19%of the companies in China stated that there were indeed mandatory technology transfer.Another example is that the United States starts corporate hearing and questionnaires when the first batch of tariff sanctions on imported products imported by US $ 34 billion. As a result, 83%of American companies do not support their sanctions on Chinese imported products.
At a hearing at a value of US $ 16 billion in imports of US $ 16 billion, the ratio of the opposition has reached 93%.At the last hearing for US $ 200 billion in China, the proportion of opposition to sanctions has exceeded 95%.It is regrettable that the influence of enterprises on this US government is not as good as before, which has caused the current lack of stabilizers from the United States in the Sino -US trade dispute.However, the government will be renewed, and the enterprise will continue, and the role of its cockpit stones will inevitably continue.
So why did the cockpit stones that have been repeatedly tried in previous Republican and Democratic Governments have suddenly failed in front of the US government?This has to start with Trump himself.A senior official of the Canadian Central Bank once commented on Trump: he is a rare dictator in Western society.Remember
A very interesting photo was published by CNN in the United States CNN, which was a photo of the meeting of its core staff members to meet when Trump came to power.Surprisingly, just 210 days later, in addition to the Vice President Pence, these people were replaced by Trump's firing because of their opinions.American media, the reason why Pence can avoid the victims is just because the president has no right to dismiss Vice President.
Many people think that what Trump does is to use the means of cunning businessmen into politics.But the author believes that although Trump has been a businessman for a lifetime, he is by no means a businessman.Compared with previous US presidents, Trump has five keywords to pay attention to: politicians, tens of billions, real estate developers, TV stars, and oldest presidents.
There is no legal bribery system in the United States in the United States. Mdash; mdash; lobbying, entrepreneurs and interest groups mainly affect government decision -making through the lobbying system.After lobbying the demands of the interest group, the company will return to officials through various legal channels.
For example, the US President's taxes have paid less than $ 400,000 the previous year. However, the after -tax fees after a lecture on the stage will be as high as 300,000 to 500,000 US dollars. In the first year of the steps, there are generally 30 to 40 lectures.Even if the party rotates, the market's market will not change. The mystery is the reward (lagging) of the care of the Presidential President's period of administration.
But for a president of tens of billions of dollars, this interest transportation is not much attractive.In addition, Trump itself is a political amateur, and it is difficult for the lobbying group to influence him through other politicians.On the other hand, Trump is a TV star, and Trump is over seventy years old. It is the first example of the first president in American history that he has exceeded 70 years old.This
Some characteristics determine the pursuit of his arrogance and maximizing public influence. He also hopes to leave the name of the history of the history.Therefore, even many mainstream American media and scholars believe that it is impossible to achieve the campaign commitment, such as withdrawing from the cross -Pacific Partnership Agreement (TPP), canceling the Obama Health Insurance Plan, withdrawal from the Iranian nuclear agreement, etc. He dares to take risks and break through the institutional practice.Implement it one by one.
In the end, Trump's real estate agent identity led him to the president of the typical non -trade sector to know little about international economic and trade.From his repeated speeches, he clearly stated that he misunderstood the trade deficit as a commercial loss.Therefore, the trade deficit is naturally unacceptable to the president of the businessman.President Bush, also a rich man. Because his background is an available trading department such as oil, he will not be so disgusted as Trump's trade deficit.
In short, the atypical U.S. President like Trump has caused the effect of Sino -US pressure compartment stones.According to his characteristics, forcing him to cooperate by combating his voters, although the cost is high, it is still a more effective means.
(The author is a professor at Huazhong University of Science and Technology, Dean of the Optics Valley Free Trade Research Institute)
