David Shambaugh, a famous American issue expert, was published on the 27th on the 27th at the China -US Exchange Foundation.Even after the US midterm elections, there will be no substantial changes, unless the Chinese government's policy has a fundamental reversal.
At the beginning of the article, Shen Dawei pointed out that the Trump administration's policy on China will not change after the midterm elections.The reason is that the two parties currently have a strong consensus on the implementation of tough policies in China.The article pointed out that China ’s sense of existence on the world stage is getting stronger, and it has begun to conflict with the United States in areas that have not reached its influence.After Trump came to power, it launched a national security strategy and national defense strategy. For the first time, it clearly defined China as a strategic competitors in the United States, and formulated the whole government and the whole society to deal with strategies in order to deal with China in a wide range of problems.If the US politics does not have a deep -seated consensus on the two parties, such a strategy cannot be formulated.
Shen Dawei believes that Sino -US relations have been at the lowest point in nearly 30 years.If China's policies and actions are not substantially reversed in the direction of more freedom and restraint abroad in China, the new tough position in the United States will continue in an unlimited period.
Specialty of Washington Political Science Professor Research China
Shen Dawei, a professor of politics at the University of George's Middot; the University of Washington University, is a specializing in studying China's internal affairs, diplomacy, security and military.In 2015, he published an article entitled by The Coming Chinese Crackup, and in 2016 he published China Future. Xie Guozhong: If the US -China trade war heats up the RMB, the RMB may be degraded by 10%
Economist Andy Xie said that if the United States continues to impose tariffs on China, the yuan may be degraded by 10%against the US dollar.
Xie Guozhong, who had previously served in Morgan Stanley, said in an interview with CNBC that if the United States really raised its tariffs on imported goods to 25%at the end of the year, the RMB is likely to have a significant decline of 10%.
Xie Guozhong pointed out that the currency reflects the challenges facing the economy. When you face tariffs, the currency adjustment is unavoidable.
If the renminbi will be degraded by 10%, it will run off with China's recent measures to maintain RMB.
At the end of August, the pedestrian pointed out that he did not intend to use the RMB as a weapon for the trade war.Chinese Prime Minister Li Keqiang also said earlier this month that the recent decline in the RMB against the US dollar said it was not a fact that Beijing deliberately did.He mentioned that he would not use the devaluation of the RMB to stimulate exports, and the RMB continued to weaken, and he was more profitable for the country.
Moody's Credit Credit Taylor believes that the RMB is indeed under pressure to depreciate, but Beijing can resist.He said: We don't think the renminbi will depreciate significantly.We believe that the motivation to maintain stability is relatively strong.
He pointed out that Beijing also has capital control and other policy tools to block RMB.However, Xie Guozhong said that China must prevent exporters from leaving China in order to avoid tariffs, and they must make exporters make money. If they lose money, they will close.The exchange rate must reflect this new reality.
Xie Guozhong also suggested that China must take more measures to retain exporters, such as tax reduction.
