This contest between China and the United States may allow European, North American and Japan to seize the opportunity, because Chinese -American companies will face greater obstacles in doing business in each other countries.

With the continuous upgrading of the Sino -US trade war, some countries in other regions have seen "silver edge of Wuyun".This competition between China and the United States may allow European, North American and Japan to seize the opportunity, because Chinese and American companies that compete with them will face greater obstacles in doing business in each other countries.

But for the emerging Southeast Asian economy that has long been deeply integrated into China's supply chain, this may be a much more severe challenge.

The EU (EU) Trade Specialist Cecilia Malmstrom (CECILIA MALMSTROM) said in response to the latest tariff measures of Donald Trump: "The trade war is not good, it is not easy to win"But this has not allowed economists and investors to stop looking for winners.

The United States and China have imposed a record tariffs this week. Studies by Deutsche Bank show that it is increasingly difficult for Chinese companies to do business in the US market and may make Mexico and (to a small degree) Canada and Canada andEuro area benefits.

Germany wrote: "U.S. unilaterally imposed tariffs on China, which is equivalent to a favorable trade emergencies for other parts of the world. For American consumers, imported goods from outside China suddenly become (relatively) It is cheap. "

When tariffs increase the cost of Chinese goods, other countries will inevitably benefit.

For example, data from the US International Trade Commission (USITC) showed that China exported US $ 147 billion of electromechanical products last year.Electromechanical products are a broad category, including products affected by Trump's latest tariffs.

But Mexico MDASH; MDASH; in the commodity trade with its northern neighbors, it already has a geographical advantage MDASH; MDASH; the US trade surplus has reached 62 billion U.S. dollars, and its advantages have continued to expand.

Then there is a problem of how to enter the Chinese economy with a scale of $ 1.2 trillion, which is bound to become more and more difficult for American companies.

The person in charge of the IFO Center for International Economics, Gabriel Felbermay, the person in charge of the IFO Center for International Economics.

He believes that small and medium -sized manufacturers in Germany (EU exported power) may benefit MDASH; mdash; if they have not set up business in the United States and China, they can avoid directly impact on tariffs.

The chief economist at Schroders, Keith Bull; Keith Wade added that European and Japanese companies have gain advantages in competing for the Chinese market share. They will replace American cars, airplanes and chemical suppliersEssence

The obstacle to MDASH; MDash; and the relative advantage obtained by competitors in other regions of MDASH; MDASH; MDASH; may also far exceed the tariff category.

Bullam Bull, head of the Bruzegel Institute of Think Tank, headquarters in Brussels; Guntram Wolff said that the Chinese government may restrict US companies enter China and prevents American companies from acquiring, because ChinaThe space for more tariffs on more American products is almost exhausted.The amount of imports from the United States from the United States should be lower than the amount of goods exported to the United States.

Wolf said: "At that time, there may be some space and opportunities, especially if the willingness of European companies to open markets will increase." He also acknowledges that the net effect of tariffs is negative because tariffs will cause the global supply chain to the global supply chain.Impact.

But companies outside Europe may be more likely to be affected by such interference.

Schroder's Wade said that because 45%of the added value of Chinese -American products is created outside China, "there is a lot of room for damage to other economies."He added that exporting economies such as Taiwan, Malaysia, South Korea, Singapore, and other East Asia and Southeast Asia will be the most vulnerable to impact.

The long -term impact of US tariffs on the United States is still far from settled.Jon Harrison, an economist at the consulting company TS Lombard; Jon Harrison pointed out that when the European Union and the United States imposed punitive tariffs on the US solar panel in China in 2012, Chinese companies quickly transferred their production to Malaysia, the Philippines and the Philippines and the PhilippinesVietnam.If similar migrations occur this time, it may benefit the Southeast Asian economy.

The impact of this trade war on the global economy may be limited, at least at present.Although the struggle between China and the United States may curb global growth, the measures announced only affecting 2.5%of the global trade.

Gabriel Sterne, Gabriel Sterne of the Consultation Institute of Oxford Economics, said that even if the United States fulfills all the threats issued so far, this number will only rise to 5.2%.

However, Christina Bull, president of the International Monetary Fund (IMF); Christine Lagarde warned in an interview with the British "Financial Times" last week that emerging markets may be damaged in other aspects.

Trade tensions have begun to exacerbate the inflow of funds into the US dollar risk, which has increased the pressure of those countries that are already difficult to suppress the depreciation of the local currency.

If this trade conflict has been expanded by China and the United States to participate in multiple parties, the economic impact will be huge; MDash; it will be more difficult to find a winner from Trump's tariff war.

Translator/Shen Kai