China to improve the value chain of export products should be a trade war

Source: Taiwan Economic Daily

One of the main strategies in China in response to Trump's tariff measures is to increase the value chain of export products.In the short term, China has not caused a threat to developing countries such as Europe, the United States, and Japan. The most lethal field is intermediate technology products, such as cars and components, motor equipment, and construction machinery.The most impact may be the neighboring countries such as Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan.

In the 10 years after the financial tsunami, China's export industry showed super toughness.China surpassed Germany in 2009 and became the world's largest exporter. After that, the average annual export of exports increased by 5%, while the global total export volume increased by only 2%.During the same period, the proportion of Chinese manufacturing exports also increased from 12%to 18%, and the number of manufacturing employment in the development of the country accelerated.According to a report from the National Economic Research Agency, the increase in Chinese products in 2002-12 led to the loss of 200-2.4 million employment opportunities in the US manufacturing industry.

According to the Financial Times, Sanyi Heavy Industry Group, the largest heavy machinery manufacturer in China, did not show the atmosphere of the Sino -China trade war in the factory on the suburbs of Shanghai.500 workers and 200 robots in the factory are welding and locking steel parts. They can produce up to 50 various types of strange hands per day, weigh 20 metric tons each, 40%of the output for export. Last year, the export value reached 1.2 billion US dollars, Mainly selling emerging markets in Asia and Latin America.The business of Sany Heavy Industry has not slowed due to tariff measures. The goal of this year is that the export value has increased by 30%.

The report quoted Xu Bin, a professor at the China -Europe International Business School, "Chinese companies are gradually abandoning low -end products and turning to mid -range products, and the net effect of US tariff measures will be to accelerate this upgrade momentum. Chinese companies may be forced to improve their product lines to offset offsets to offset the product line to offset offsetThe negative effects brought by tariffs ".

The Trump administration focuses on China's progress in high -tech fields, such as artificial intelligence and robots, so that tariff measures are rationalized.

The National Science Commission pointed out that in the past ten years, the market share of Chinese products has increased to 32%in the export market in the global intermediate technology products; in the late 2000s, it surpassed the United States and surpassed Europe in the 2010s.

The growth of the intermediate technology industry mainly depends on private enterprises.Ten years ago, the market share of China's bulldozers in the world was only 2%, and it has now increased to nearly 10%, and Sanyi Heavy Industry is currently receiving the global market of Japan ’s Xiaosong production.The director of the Sanyi Export Department said that the quality and efficiency of Sanyi machines have caught up with Japan and have better services, so they are very competitive in the Southeast Asian market.The current price is still higher than South Korea, so Sany is not only engaged in price competition.

This reflects another trend of China's exports to expand exports to non -industrial countries.Over the past 10 years, China's market share in non -developed countries has increased from 43%to 48%.

Value chain is obviously upgraded

Furthermore, the value chain of Chinese products has also been significantly upgraded, from consumer goods to capital and components.In the past 10 years, the exports of global transformers and components, China accounted for 20%, doubled from 10 years ago.

The transformation of Chinese companies towards more precise capital and wealth products has transformed the trade pattern between China and the developed countries.In the past 10 years, among China's export products to the United States, the proportion of telecommunications, transportation equipment and automotive components has increased, and the proportion of textiles and shoes has declined.According to World Bank data, from 2007 to 2016, China's capital market share in the global market increased from 5%to 20%.

The value chain of China's consumer goods exports has also improved.For example, Midea Group, TCL and Hisense Group's consumer electronics products have also increased significantly overseas. In 2016, the total export value reached 15 billion US dollars.

Economists believe that the increase in value chain is an inevitable result brought about by rising competition.Harvard Economist Rodreck pointed out that "when economics can produce generators or electric vehicles, the productivity of these industrial workers will be on an automatic raising track. The key is to enable these industriesexpansion".

In the past 10 years, the average salary of China's manufacturing industry has been mentioned more than twice, and it has surpassed Brazil and Mexico, forcing companies to improve productivity.Chinese companies are less focused on basic innovation, and they are biased towards gradual innovation.The University of Toronto's innovation researcher Brunniz said that Chinese companies are good at creating "new styles, usually simple, cheaper and more efficient technology and products."

After the financial tsunami, China's investment boom has enabled industrial product manufacturers to expand domestic production and strengthen the scale economy.The manufacturer also improves by self -improvement through the purchase of foreign technology.For example, Sany Heavy Industry purchased the German concrete gangyuan manufacturer Putz Myster in 2012. The Midea Group purchased the German robotic manufacturer Kuka in the same year with 4.5 billion euros.

Technical transfer

Advanced countries have also provided technical transfer to Chinese manufacturers, and Chinese companies even steal technology.About 20%of U.S. -funded companies said that China demands that they transfer technology to joint ventures, and some of China's primary exporters have faced lawsuits against patent rights.

In the process of exporting products in China, multinational enterprises also play a role.Last year, 43%of China's export products were manufactured by foreign -funded enterprises, and high -tech products such as laptops and mobile phones exported higher proportion of Chinese and foreign companies.Among the top 20 export companies in China, 13 were owned by foreign capital.

China's export products can be upgraded, and most of them are deepened by multinational enterprises in China.For example, multinational companies such as Qiqi Electric, Bastia and Hanwei United have set up more precise factories in China in 10 years.

These companies are usually attracted by China's domestic market. In the past 10 years, China has been the fastest market for sales and heavy equipment sales.But these factories often become export bases.Watzier, director of the McKinsey Global Research Agency, pointed out, "Any large US group has a considerable site in China; since it has equipment in China, why not export products?"

In the past, China's export manufacturing industry highly relied on components that have been developed countries, and China was the final assembly point of products, which is the so -called "processing" trade.

However, the proportion of this trading type accounted for about 46%10 years ago, and it has now dropped to 35%.The self -control rate of Chinese export products has increased from 60%10 years ago to 80%.The panels used in Tablet TVs are mainly imported in 10 years, and now they are "made in China".

Apple supplier double

Taking Apple as an example, the number of suppliers in China has doubled in 10 years, reaching 19 in 2017, and only 7 in 2012.Coupled with Hong Kong suppliers, the total number is 28.

With the production of more advanced products in China, imported components and capital wealth often need to be imported. Therefore, China's imports from Germany have doubled in 10 years.But this benefit may be reduced.Beijing Longzhou Economic Consultant Company pointed out that if China's imported new industries have expanded rapidly, the import rate may continue to be high in the previous few years. However, once Chinese companies control the technology of components, imports will decline significantly.

Under the trend of China's export products to intermediate technology products, the most threatened neighbor may be the most threatened.In the 10 years after the financial tsunami, China, Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan's triangle trade surged, and these countries have a huge surplus in China's export components.

Product upgrade East Asia Self -Dangerous

But since 2013, the deficit of China, Japan, and South Korea has begun to shrink because China has launched "import substitution".Huang Yuchuan, a senior researcher at the Carnegie International Peace Foundation, pointed out, "This is the big problem facing the East Asian region. South Korea has the biggest threat."

Even Germany, which has a small deficit in China, feels pressure.The most competitive areas include machinery, home appliances and goldwork products.

What makes Western countries more dedicated is that China is still backward in the field of high -tech manufacturing, and the exports of semiconductors, diesel engines and cars are very small; even if Chinese exports are competing with high -tech products in Western countries, it is mainly at the price at the price, but it is mainly at the price.And the quality is still compared.

Professor Xu Bin pointed out that "Chinese companies are squeezing into mid -range products, but they still rely on price advantages, which are welcomed by developed countries. It is similar to that of low -end products in Germany and Japan."<<<

Under the trend of China's export products to intermediate technology products, the most threatened neighbor may be the most threatened.In the 10 years after the financial tsunami, China, Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan's triangle trade surged, and these countries have a huge surplus in China's export components.

Product upgrade East Asia Self -Dangerous

But since 2013, the deficit of China, Japan, and South Korea has begun to shrink because China has launched "import substitution".Huang Yuchuan, a senior researcher at the Carnegie International Peace Foundation, pointed out, "This is the big problem facing the East Asian region. South Korea has the biggest threat."

Even Germany, which has a small deficit in China, feels pressure.The most competitive areas include machinery, home appliances and goldwork products.

What makes Western countries more dedicated is that China is still backward in the field of high -tech manufacturing, and the exports of semiconductors, diesel engines and cars are very small; even if Chinese exports are competing with high -tech products in Western countries, it is mainly at the price at the price, but it is mainly at the price.And the quality is still compared.

Professor Xu Bin pointed out that "Chinese companies are squeezing into mid -range products, but they still rely on price advantages, which are welcomed by developed countries. It is similar to that of low -end products in Germany and Japan."