At the end of 2018, the local elections in Taiwan, the most important thing about the media is not the situation of the local chief candidate, but whether Taipei Mayor Ke Wenzhe will run for the leaders of Taiwan in 2020.

This possibility does not exist under the abandonment of Taiwan's independent voters, especially the youth groups.And Ke Wenzhe is a political figure that is currently in Taiwan in addition to the Kuomintang and can communicate with Beijing.In this way, whether Ke Wenzhe can bring profound changes to cross -strait relations in the future, it is worth thinking about.

But first of all, we need to realize that Ke Wenzhe was accepted by Beijing, not just because he proposed the political slogan "ANDRDQUO; or Andrdquo; Andrdquo; Andrdquo; Andrdquo;The more important reason is the changes in the political environment within Taiwan.

After the Kuomintang's local elections defeated in 2014, it has not been rejected, and the DPP has achieved a complete governance in Taiwan; therefore Beijing needs new politicians or organizations to counter the DPP.Ke Wenzhe was obviously appearing at the right position at the right time.

Although Ke Wenzhe was courteous from the DPP in the 2014 Taipei election campaign, the relationship between the latter two did not further consolidate, but he continued to rub. Until the Taipei Mayor's election in 2018, he finally parted ways.The Democratic Progressive Party also launched its own candidate and Ke Wenzhe to compete for the mayor of Taipei.

Compared with the DPP, although Ke Wenzhe did not explicitly accept Andrdquo; but its views on both sides of the strait were obviously more pragmatic and flexible, and they knew how to change at any time. In particular, although Ke Wenzhe's "ANDRDQUO on both sides of the strait Andrdquo,"The slogan was criticized by the DPP, but this did not affect Ke Wenzhe's support.On the contrary, in this year's election campaign, the slogan Andrdquo; instead weakened his support for this year's campaign and "apologized to those who hurt those who were hurt. Since then, Ke Wenzhe believes that this slogan has apologized and his public opinion support has rebounded again./p>

At the same time, the changes in the structure of the political party in Taiwan are also the reason why Ke Wenzhe's phenomenon is still constantly.According to the results of the August national polls just released by the Taiwan Public Opinion Foundation: the distribution of blue -green forces in Taiwan is generally 24.5%green, 24.5%blue, and 46.9%is neutral or independent voters.

This means that the support of the two Nationalities of Taiwan is less than 50%, and it is even 2.1%more than independent voters.At a very special moment of political parties in Taiwan, it is unknown whether the two national parties will be the two major political parties in Taiwan in the future.In terms of this proportion, in fact, it can only be regarded as a medium -sized party.

Of course, this change is also related to the failure of the DPP's ruling party, causing the disappointment of the people in Taiwan to be related to dissatisfaction.The Democratic Progressive Party was in power two times, but the result was the continuous decline of social support forces.This is a very dangerous signal for the DPP.In this regard, it can be said that Ke Wenzhe's success is a reaction of the emotions of the people in Taiwan under the emotion of anti -building in Taiwan.

Based on the above analysis, can Ke Wenzhe change in cross -strait relations in the future?In the short term (2018 to 2020), Ke Wenzhe, as an important representative of Beijing's anti -DPP, will inevitably continue to be supported by Beijing.At the same time, in order to distinguish the DPP's route, Ke Wenzhe will continue to take the cross -strait policies that are different from the DPP.Therefore, Ke Wenzhe's influence on cross -strait relations in the short term is positive.

However, because Ke Wenzhe has always been the mayor of Taipei, Taiwan ’s cross -strait policy is not dominant, so this impact is limited.In the middle and long term (after 2020, assuming that he is elected Taiwan leader), it can only be cautious and optimistic.

Although the slogan beyond the unified blue -green has always existed, it is probably easy to surpass blue and green, and it is impossible to surpass the unity.As long as you sit in the position of Taiwan's leaders, you need to make a statement.Ke Wenzhe's previous political slogan can be accepted by Beijing, but after he was elected Taiwan's leaders, I am probably not enough.

Judging from Ke Wenzhe's recent itinerary, he should also be actively thinking about this issue.Therefore, he visited the veteran politicians such as Lee Teng -hui and Song Chuyu.This may be related to participating in the 2020 election and how to deal with cross -strait relations.Therefore, it is difficult to judge the final direction before Ke Wenzhe's cross -strait policy.However, given that its political figure is more flexible and there is no historical burden, it will not advance to Vegan Valley, such as the DPP and Tsai Ing -wen.Therefore, cross -strait relations will not be the same as the current.

In addition, whether Ke Wenzhe's flexible treatment on cross -strait relations depends on his political energy.As mentioned above, the political structure of Taiwan has reached a very special moment, and the two Nationalities have gradually abandoned the Taiwan independent voters.As the product of Taiwan's martial law, both the Nationalist parties are out of place.Their colors of their political parties have been immersed in the characteristics of that era. In terms of democracy in Taiwan, it has formed obstacles.

Therefore, in the future, it can be imagined that Ke Wenzhe is completely likely to adopt the same route as French President Macron to form his own political party before the election, change governance methods, and gradually promote Taiwan's politics to enter the true era of democratic politics.In this way, Ke Wenzhe will have a greater space to talk to the mainland in handling cross -strait relations.

However, in terms of this change in the mainland, the biggest problem is that the value recognition of voters and new political parties in Taiwan will be stronger. If Beijing wants to promote the development of cross -strait relations, then its cross -strait policy can not be limited to the current scope.Essence

The author is Beijing Freelance