Horizontal World
This year marks the 40th anniversary of the Sino -Japanese Treaty Treaty. The Prime Minister, Prime Minister, and Foreign Ministers of the two countries have congratulated each other. Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi met with Japanese Foreign Minister Kono Kono in Singapore and affirmed the positive attitude of Japan.Expressing willingness to carry out Sino -Japanese cooperation in the third country to Andrdquo;
Sino -Japanese relations are developing in the direction of improvement. This is a happy change. However, while optimistic, we must also see that there is still a cognition of the reason for the improvement of the relationship between the two countries.Andrdquo; and believes that the other party needs to improve Sino -Japanese relations, which will be due to the establishment of mutual trust.
There is a long -term view of Japan, that is, China ’s policy of Japan is mainly determined by Sino -US relations. When China -US relations are good, they often despise Japan, and when Sino -US relations are bad, they will tend to improve Sino -Japanese relations.This kind of view seems to have begun to do a big way because of the tension between China and the United States, and believes that in order to concentrate its strength to the United States, it is necessary to strengthen the relationship with the United States alliance countries to avoid isolation.relation.In fact, many scholars in China have long proposed the point of view of improving Sino -Japanese relations and focusing on the beauty of strategic focus and policy resources.
It is based on the understanding of "American factors andrdquo; the main reasoning of Sino -Japanese relations, and there are currently two kinds of opposite views on the improvement of China -China relations in Japan. Active faction believes that due to the tight Sino -US relations, China has improved the motivation to improve Japanese relations.Enhancement can use China to need Japan's favorable timing more, and actively advanced territorial and safety issues. Conservatives believe that because China needs Japan more, it is not necessary to be too active. If Japan is too positive, it may be used by China./p>
In China, there are two main interpretations of the interpretation of Sino -Japanese relations.The first is that after Trump's governing in the short term, it is deeply disturbed about Trump's anti -globalization and anti -multilateralism, as well as the unconventional practices of trade sanctions on alliance countries.Pressure from the United States, especially for Abe, who is re -elected for the third term of the President of the Democratic Party, is attractive to improving Sino -Japanese relations.
The second is that from the long run, after the sharp deterioration and turbulence of Sino -Japanese relations from 2010 to 2014, due to the continuous growth of China's national strength, not only the China -Japan power balance and reversal, but China has come to the United States. Japan has seen it. Japan has seen it. Japan has seen it.China's development momentum is unstoppable. It has understood the idea of curbing China with the United States. It is unrealistic and there is no future. In short, Japan and "taking Andrdquo;
The above two interpretations are not unreasonable, but it is too focused on the impact of the foreign force factor in the United States on Sino -Japanese relations. At the same time, there is also a problem with the improvement of this structural framework with excessive power to balance this structural framework.If it is deduced according to the above thinking, then China does not need to be too active in Japan's relationship, because in the long run, when the strength comparison is in the direction of further conducive to China, when China's GDP (GDP) exceeds the United States more than the United States, the United States exceeds the United StatesSino -Japanese relations will naturally become better. In the near future, Japan has more places in China.
In May of this year, when Chinese Prime Minister Li Keqiang had a talks with Abe's talks with Abe when he visited Japan, he proposed that "strive to achieve long -term healthy and stable development of Sino -Japanese relations and develop Andrdquo;It may only be based on the above -mentioned "American central thinking Andrdquo; and the cognition of the automatic stability theory of power changes.
Before the normalization of diplomatic relations between China and Japan in 1972, Sino -Japanese relations due to the restrictions of the Cold War pattern, without formal official exchanges, and private trade was limited.It can be said that China and Japan can quickly improve the relationship in 1972. It is indeed because of the international pattern of the Cold War and the creation of American factors to oppose the common enemy Andmdash; Andmdash; the strategic needs of the Soviet Union to make China and the United States change from enemies to quasi -alliance, and as the United States Alliance as the United States Alliance, and as the United States AllianceJapan's Japan also naturally transforms into a quasi -alliance.In this sense, from the historical point of view at the time, it is true that the improvement of Sino -Japanese relations relies on the United States. At the same time, in the thinking of the Chinese and Japan elites, the Chinese and Japanese elites have deeply rooted the Chinese and Japanese relations depending on the US and the United States "American center thinking Andrdquo; settings.
However, we need to see that Sino -Japanese relations have continued to accumulate their own kinetic energy independent of the United States in the following decades.In 1978, China and Japan signed a peaceful and friendly treaty. In the fall, Deng Xiaoping visited Japan to take the Shinkansen and visited Japanese companies. After proposed to study from Japan, he officially sounded the horn of reform and opening up at the Third Plenary Session of the Eleventh Central Committee.
For a long time, Japan has always been China's largest foreign direct investment country, and the Japanese government development assistance (ODA) has also contributed to the process of China's reform and opening up.At the same time, after China's economic development, especially after joining the World Trade Organization in 2001, it not only benefits large Japanese companies, but also benefits many Japanese SMEs. The bilateral economy has strong reciprocity.
From a social perspective, there are more than 300 pairs of friendly cities between China and Japan, and there are countless international flights between major and Japanese cities every day.EssenceIn the early days of the Cold War, Japan was also the first country that broke the sanctions against China in Western countries, and the political relations between China and Japan were not uncomfortable.In this sense, Sino -Japanese relations have already possessed the development momentum independent of external forces (US) factors, and this momentum has not been mobilized for a long time, forming a solid of consolidating the long -term stable development of Sino -Japanese relationsBase.
Sino -U.S., Japan's three -sided relations should not be a kind of zero -harmonious thinking. The United States factors are indeed the most important external factors that will continue to affect Sino -Japanese relations in the future. However, at the same time, as the second and third largest economies in the world,China and Japan also need to aware of the development of the relationship between large powers and neighboring countries. They must rely on the excavation and consolidation of the internal kinetic energy of both parties, otherwise China -Japan relations seem to be too pitiful.How to surpass Andrdquo in the "American central thinking andrdquo;, allowing Sino -Japanese relations to not simply rely on the structural stability of the comparison of power to achieve self -discipline and stability, it will be a strategic issue that China and Japan need to think.
The author is an associate professor at the National Niigata University in Japan
Senior researcher with Global Governance Higher Research Institute
