The Hong Kong stock market resumed transactions after the "Double Festival" of the Mid -Autumn Festival. The three major indexes fell more than 3 % on Tuesday (October 3), the largest decline in the past three months.Analysis of experts and scholars interviewed, before Evergrande's founder Xu Jiayin, it was reported that the group was temporarily suspended after being controlled by Chinese officials, resulting in pessimism of the stock market.
The first trading day of Hong Kong stocks entered the fourth quarter of the fourth quarter, the Hang Seng Index and the Hang Seng Technology Index once fell more than 3 %; the Hang Seng China Enterprise Index fell as much as 3.8 %.The start in the fourth quarter was not good, showing that during the Mid -Autumn Festival National Day holiday, the strong recovery of domestic tourism in China has not boosted market confidence, and the stock market continues to be affected by the unclear economic prospects.
Caixin announced the latest Chinese manufacturing activities on October 1st, showing that the manufacturing procurement manager index (PMI) in September was 50.6, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points from August.EssenceIn September, the PMI of China ’s service industry PMI decreased by 1.6 percentage points to 50.2, which was a new year low in the second consecutive month, showing that the growth rate of service industry activities was losing power.
However, the Chinese tourism industry ushered in a strong recovery three days before the double festival. The total domestic tourism tourism was 395 million, and it jumped 76 % to achieve domestic tourism revenue of 342.24 billion yuan (S $ 65.31 billion), an increase of 125.3 % year -on -yearEssence
The analyst of the Hong Kong South China Morning Post quoted that as economic growth slowed and the real estate crisis continued to appear, the prospects of the Chinese stock market in the fourth quarter were dim; the possibility of Chinese officially introduced effective stimulus measures, and strong economic data was difficult to start.To promote the role.A investment official said: "Obviously, unless domestic funds are poured in a large amount, the market will continue to be sluggish."
The report of US investment institutions Morgan Stanley shows that the global fund has further reduced its holdings in September, and its average stock position in China has dropped to the lowest level since 2020.
The MSCI China Index fell on Tuesday, and this year's decline has exceeded 11 %.The index is close to the third consecutive year, which will be the worst continuous decline in 20 years.
Bloomberg quoted Ling Weisen, general manager of Swiss United Private Bank, said that investors' interest in China is declining, and concerns about the Fed's maintenance of high interest rates for a longer period of time have also exacerbated the selling of the Hong Kong market.
Fu Fangjian, an associate professor of Li Guangqian Business School of Singapore Management University, analyzed in an interview with Lianhe Morning Post that the first day of the three major indicators of Hong Kong stocks fell, mainly due to the news of the news that the major executives were investigated before the festival, which affected the market.confidence.
Xie Dongming, director of the Research Director of the Greater China of Overseas Chinese, also said in an interview that the pessimistic emotion of the current solidification may stem from the ripple effect of Evergrande's issue, and the risk emotions continue to be compressed.He pointed out that the Chinese financial market has now lost its forward -looking guidance function. Although the official has issued many policies, investors have not followed up the layout due to pessimism and complex emotions, and they are still watching Beijing's more "real economic actions."
Fu Fangjian analyzed that the Chinese government chose to thunder at this time, indicating that they did not worry about Evergrande's bad news to strongly impact the stock market.
Xie Dongming judged that Evergrande's credit effects should be controllable, but the key is to stabilize entrepreneur confidence, so that the market believes that the Evergrande crisis will not form systemic risks.
Scholars of interviewed scholars expressed optimistic expectations for China's growth in the fourth quarter, and the data is highly better than the third quarter.
Fu Fangjian evaluated that China's economic fundamental data data has been steadily regained in the near future. The PMI index has returned to the expansion range, and consumption and real estate have also begun to rise. "China should be expected to achieve a 5 % growth this year."
Xie Dongming judged that many of China's macroeconomics are gradually becoming a smooth wind, including the latest industrial data and industrial profits are improving. Chinese companies may begin to enter the stage of replenishment inventory.Function, "5 % of the goal is highly possible, the increase may even reach 5.2 % to 5.5 %."
Fu Fangjian and Xie Dongming both pointed out that senior Sino -US officials have recently accelerated their contact, and Chinese Deputy Prime Minister He Lifeng and Foreign Minister Wang Yi may visit the United States successively to create a prerequisite for the two heads of state at the Summit of the Asia -Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit in NovemberThis is good news for China's macroeconomics.
