Last Saturday (January 13), a driver of the 40 -year -old taxi (Dershon) driver who was nearly 40 years old before the opening of the vote of Taiwan's election stated that he would vote to the party's presidential candidate Ke Wenzhe.He said that eight years ago, he opened a shop at four tourist attractions. Due to the tight relations with the Tsai Ing -wen government and mainland China, Luke did not come.debt.He aggravated the irony of the word "Democratic Progressive Party's kindness, I am unforgettable".
The driver's idea is very simple. If the DPP does not do well, you can do it for a substitution.At first he said optimistically that Ke Wenzhe should win. The huge crowd of Kaidgalan Avenue before the presidential palace before the election, and the social media that supported Ke Wenzhe said that Ke would get 6 million tickets and gave him extremely highconfidence.His cognition is far from the number of polls and votes I get.At that time, the LINE group came from the Ke Wenzhe camp that might not hold a press conference. I told him that Ke Wenzhe should lose.In an instant, he said silently.
After the invoicing, as many polls predict, the President of the DPP President Lai Qingde obtained 40%of the three candidates, and the maximum of the candidate candidate in the wild Kuomintang should be 33%; and insisted that he was the firstSecond, Ke Wenzhe, who is within the scope of the polls of Lai Qingde, has only 26%of the votes, which makes 60%of the people who look forward to the rotation of political parties disappointed and angry.
This anger rushed to Ke Wenzhe Facebook, scolding Ke was "historical sinner".At the same time, Huang Shanshan's Facebook of Ke Wenzhe was also burst because the election results proved that Huang Shanshan once again "false polls" again "again.Those who cheated the party's rotation and switched to Ke Wenzhe .In 2022, Huang Shanshan claimed that his polls were sitting in one look. As a result, the third child was re -applied to the presidential election and pushed Taiwan to an unpredictable future. No wonder it was not forgiven.
During the election process, the political parties propagate their most successfuls with the so -called internal reference polls, and to condense the confidence of supporters, it is understandable.However, Ke Wenzhe, Huang Shanshan and others strongly criticized all traditional media before the election. All traditional media were controlled by the two major parties of the court and the field. A pole overturned all professional polls.The worst accuracy accuracy of "pants" is the most important thing for the people's party, with a difference of 16.15%.Ke Wenzhe's "rational, scientific, and pragmatic" has been sarcastic as "superstition, theology, and misunderstanding."
After the defeat, Ke Wenzhe appeared publicly until Wednesday (January 17).Facing the unprecedented questioning of the outside world, he insisted that his polls were not fraud and named the highly respected polls in the industry for a long time to target him to create an abandoned effect.He also said that the party's party holders are mainly young people, high education, and middle voters, but many people must go to work, and the voting rate is not high.
Anyone who is familiar with elections knows that these words cannot be tested.The highest voting rate in Taiwan is voters over the age of 50, and the lowest under 40 years old. Even if there are Hong Kong anti -repair case incidents in 2020, the voting rate of young people has rushed from 50 to 60 % in 2016 to more than 70 %.Ke Wenzhe expects 85%.There are 9.5 million voters over the age of 50, accounting for almost half of Taiwan's voters in Taiwan. The voting rate of these people is as high as 70 % and 80 %, but Ke Wenzhe's support ratio at this age is only one digit.
The investigation and sampling methods of each poll company have its limitations.Taking the Meilimao Electronics News as an example, it not only announces the support of polls, but also announces the estimated number of the votes several times before the election. The final result is in line.
In the past, Ke Wenzhe always said that young people used mobile phones with multiple mobile phones, and Meilimao Electronics News polls with pure markets (the samples that are sampled by the proportion of the county and cities through the number of the county and city) will be deviated; but heOn Wednesday, when explaining the issue of polls, the sealing poll of the city's dialect was very close to the result, and it was a bit unknown.
Perhaps the official fans. Cai Qiru, a former legislator of the party who has followed Ke Wenzhe for more than 30 years, bluntly, Ke Wenzhe is still in the "negative period" stage, and she has the emotional emotion of comfort.Cai Qiru pointed out that on January 10, she learned that the number of polls of the three groups of presidential candidates in Taichung was Lai Qingde 40, Hou Youyi 33, and Ke Wenzhe 24%, which was almost the same as the invoicing result, but the number passed by the Party Central Committee was Ke, Lai Lai, Lai, LaiThe difference is less than a percentage point.
In terms of mind, Ke Wenzhe, who lacks grass -roots organizations, can get 26%of the votes in the two major parties of the court and the field, and the results are bright.Some comments also believe that the party is expanding the recruitment of "small grass" party members over 16 years old to aim at the 2028 presidential election, which will indeed threaten the two major parties in the future.
The Kuomintang and the Democratic Progressive Party have been aging, and the online marketing of the people's party is very high, full of innovation and vitality. Even middle schools and elementary school children are mostly attracted and cannot be underestimated.However, the thickness of the same temperature created by the Kptv set up by the people of the Internet is no less than the media of the two major political parties.The "small grass" of the people's party excludes traditional media information, and even "exists" on different opinions, which is not a good thing for Taiwanese society, which has been torn by the two major parties.
