China's car production last year set a historical record.There are more and more guests in restaurants and hotels.The construction of new factories has increased.
However, China's economic advantages cover up the shortcomings.Significant discounts have promoted car sales, especially new energy vehicles.Diners and tourists choose more cheap meals and hotels.Due to weak domestic demand, the production capacity of many factories has been cut to half or less, and it is making up for losses by trying to increase exports.
An open -air catering market in Shenzhen.Last year, people began to choose cheaper meals.Qilai Shen for the New York Times
China National Bureau of Statistics announced on Wednesday that after nearly three years of "new crown and clear zero" epidemic prevention measures, the Chinese economy has rebounded, and last year has increased by 5.2%.The growth rate is 4.1%.
The residential building project developed in Shenzhen.Investors are worried that as developers need to complete the projects that have previously promised to submit houses within the next few months, the total construction volume may decline significantly.Qilai Shen for the New York Times
In the long run, China's growth is slowing.The real estate crisis that weakens confidence, and the shrinking and aging labor population is dragging economic output.
Western economists predict that China's growth rate will be 4.5%or lower this year. This reflects that it is not periodic downward, but a slow decline that may last for many years. Economists call long -term stagnation.Prices are gradually falling to the lowest level since China ’s global financial crisis in 2009. This currency tightening phenomenon may cause families and enterprises with debt to fall into a state of bankruptcy.
"Long -term stagnation -basically slow growth, tightness, asset bubbles and financial pressure caused by long -term excess savings -have been transferred from the Western Hemisphere to China," former US Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers accepted in Shanghai last week to accept in Shanghai last week.During the interview.
The trade surplus of finished products accounts for about 10%of China's economy.Qilai Shen for the New York Times
Heavy debt and high interest on the following limit the space for China's reversal situation.Since the fiscal crisis, the measures taken by the central and local governments to deal with the weak economy are to increase their support for new roads and other infrastructure, and provide more loans to manufacturers in key support industries.This has promoted economic growth, but also led to the continuous rise in debt, especially local debt.
Last month, Moody's credit rating agency Moody's issues released a negative rating outlook on the financial health.Another credit rating agency DBRS, a credit rating agency in Chicago, also lowered rating in November.
DBRS Morning Star Company's sovereign debt rating department, the senior vice president of the sovereign debt rating department, Rosini Malcani, expressed concern about the current economic output of China's overall economic debt than the three -year economic output. This level is higher than that of industrialized countries such as the United States.Essence
She said that even compared with the output of China's rapid growth, "this number has doubled over the past 15 years."
In a comment released by the East Is Read communication in Beijing, Zhang Jun, Dean of the School of Economics, Shanghai Fudan University, said that the Chinese government has become less willing to stimulate the economy through borrowing and infrastructure expenditures.The more I feel, the slowdown we see is certain. "
All parts of China are investing in the construction of automotive factories.Last year, China's car export volume increased by 58%, surpassing Japan to become the world's largest car exporter.Qilai Shen for the New York Times
China's economic performance last year is roughly in line with 5.3%of the consensus reached by economists, which is the survey results released by the news media of the news media last week.This number also reached the government's growth target of about 5%of the government set in March last year.Premier Li Qiang said at the World Economic Forum held at Davos, Switzerland on Tuesday that China's economic growth last year was "about 5.2%."
This number has recovered significantly compared with 2022, and the economic growth rate of that year was only 3%.In the spring of 2022, two months due to the epidemic in Shanghai disrupted the production of most parts of central China, which led to a sharp decline in consumer confidence across the country and continued to be sluggish.
Many economists have predicted that on such a weak basis, the Chinese economy will rebound sharply in 2023.But after the strong performance of the year, consumption began to be sluggish.The decline in house prices has caused the family's sense of financial security.Beijing has also weakened the domestic social security network.Policy makers have launched various stimulus measures, and a wide range of unemployment insurance plans introduced during the epidemic period a year ago, so that the public was actively employed.
Except for the richest families, everyone is paying close attention to their consumption expenditures.Many restaurant owners complain that the unit price of the guests has dropped sharply, while hotel executives have a headache for passengers to choose cheaper rooms.
Chris St. Cavish, a gourmet critic living in Shanghai and an analyst at the catering industry, said that about 6,000 restaurants have closed down during the cities with the largest population in China, but in the past year, it has been newly opened again7,500.The growth of the catering industry is almost limited to affordable restaurants with a unit price of less than 100 yuan, as well as luxury restaurants with a unit price of up to 7,000 yuan.
"For mid -range restaurants, the current operation is very difficult," Shen Kaiwei said.
The greatest concern about the Chinese economy in the next year is the same as that in the past two years: what will happen if the property market crashes?The price of existing houses is about one -fifth lower than the highest point in the summer of 2021, and this is when there are buyers in the market.The transaction volume has fallen.
The most serious impact caused by the real estate crisis includes that it is difficult for developers to raise funds and start new projects.Investors are worried that as developers need to complete the projects that have previously promised to submit houses within the next few months, the total construction volume may decline significantly.
Wang Tao, chief economist of UBS China, said that the long -term decline in construction activities has not ended, but it is unlikely to plummet.She also said, "House prices have a risk of further decline, and family confidence may also be hit more."
Last year, China's controlled banking system quickly adjusted priority to reduce loans to real estate developers and home buyers, and loans provided to industrial enterprises for factory construction increased significantly.
A large part of the factory has been sold overseas.The trade surplus of finished products accounts for about 10%of China's economy.Last year, exports calculated in the US dollar decreased due to the sharp depreciation of the RMB, but it resumed the upward trend since November, and may further rise.The surplus inventory accumulated by multinational retailers at the end of the epidemic is about to be sold, and new orders have begun.
"China's exports are likely to have a well -spraying growth," said Hayden Briscoe, a high -level asset management strategist at UBS.
All parts of China are investing in the construction of automotive factories.Last year, China's car exports increased58%, surpassing Japan to become the world's largest car exporter.
The problem now is how to persuade Chinese families not to deposit most of their income into the bank and start consumption again."Long -term surplus of savings may become a decisive challenge facing China's macroeconomic in the next decade," Samers said.
Li YOU has contributed to this article.
