At the beginning of the New Year, Ren Zeping, former chief economist of China Evergrande Group, said in 2024 to propose 10 forecasts in the real estate situation in China.Essence
Ren Zeping posted on Wednesday (January 17) on the official WeChat public account "Zeping Macro" in his official WeChat public account, and proposed the above forecast.
He believes that the era of real estate development in China has ended and entered the age of stock housing. It is mainly the long -term inflection point of the population of the main buyers from 20 to 50 years old. The urbanization rate reaches 66%.More than 1.09, the per capita housing area exceeds 34 square meters."Real estate has a long -term population, land in the medium term, and short -term finance."
Ren Zeping believes that China's land finance will face transformation, land finance occupies half of the local financial resources, local debt issues are prominent, and it needs to be resolved to promote the transformation of tax finance and equity finance.
He predicts that the Chinese real estate market is facing adjustment and differentiation. The adjustment is to digest the previous high housing prices, high inventory, and high leverage. Differentiating is that the market that flows out of the city will be differentiated.
Ren Zeping mentioned that whether the Chinese real estate market can soft landAnd the security of more than one -third of the financial credit is very important in the next two to three years.Global economic history shows that real estate is the mother of cycles and nine real estate in ten times.
He estimates that restrictions on restrictions on purchase restrictions, loans, and price limit are the general trend. These are tightening measures issued by the real estate market during the period of overheating in the real estate market.The situation has changed, and the Chinese real estate market has from preventing heat to prevent cold, and restricted measures should be accelerated to promote soft landing in the real estate market.
Ren Zeping predicts that the Chinese real estate industry's reshuffle is the general trend. Most real estate companies will disappear or be reorganized in mergers and acquisitions, and increase their efforts to support the reorganization of the high -quality real estate enterprise and survive the fittest. This is inevitableWant to experience.
He also predicts that China's real estate sales and investment will end in the next two to three years. The main support of the future housing market will come from urbanization, improvement of demand, urban renewal, and demand for housing.
According to the China Economic Times, the current supply and demand relationship of the Chinese real estate market has changed significantly. The era of overall shortage of commercial housing has basically ended, and the gradual relaxation of the purchase restriction policy in first -tier cities is the general trend.With the gradual establishment of the long -term real estate mechanism in China, the administrative means of real estate regulation such as purchase restrictions will eventually be replaced by a stable and institutionalized long -term mechanism.
According to reports, following the adjustment and optimization of purchase restriction policy in Jinshan District last October, the two districts of Shanghai Fengxian and Qingpu launched the first shot of the first -tier cities to relax in first -tier cities.The purchase restriction policy of Jiading and Songjiang is also expected to adjust and optimize.
In the future, first -tier cities may gradually adjust and optimize policies such as the real estate trading market. The residential market is relatively cold and the purchasing power is relatively weak or relaxed first.Policies to maintain the steady and healthy development of real estate markets with vane with a vane.
