"Everyone thinks (the control of crown disease epidemic) will pick up the market after liberalization. I did not expect that 2023 is worse than 2022."

Liu Yan (pseudonym) in Shanghai rental agency told Lianhe Morning Post that in 2023, the rent of her hand was reduced by 30%compared with 2022, and the rental level decreased by 20%to 30%year -on -year.For the first time in the industry, she felt "the house in Shanghai was also worried about renting" for the first time.

The real estate cold wind scraped from the sales market to the leasing market. The strong first -tier cities have also entered the cold winter: the rent continues to decline, and the rental speed of housing has slowed simultaneously.

Weifang Research Institute, Shell Research Institute and other institutions, which were released by the 2023 China Housing Rental Market Development Report released by the end of October last year, show that the listing price of 40 key cities fell in the third quarter and year -on -year.Thirty cities in 40 cities decreased from the second quarter, of which first -tier cities fell more than second -tier cities.

In the first half of 2023, the housing rent in first -tier cities increased from the end of 2022. The largest increase in Beijing was 5.03%, and Shanghai, the smallest increase, was 1.93%.However, in the third quarter, the rent of first -tier cities fell comprehensive from the previous month, and Shenzhen, with the smallest decline, also declined 0.93 % compared with the second quarter; Beijing and Guangzhou fell 1.28 % and 1.32 % respectively; Shanghai with the largest decline in Shanghai, the third quarter fell 2.12 % month -on -month.Essence

According to the statistics of the Shell Research Institute, the average expenditure of the national key 40 cities nationwide in the third quarter was 2967.8 yuan (RMB, the same, the same, S $ 565), a year -on -year decrease of 2.6%, the lowest value in the past five years.Among them, the average expenditure of first -tier cities decreased by 1.8%year -on -year, and the average monthly payment of tenants exceeded 100 yuan.

Entering the fourth season, the front -line leasing market is even more tired.The monthly report of the Zhuge Data Research Center shows that as of November 2023, the average front -line rent price was "three consecutive declines", and the year -on -year was "five consecutive drops".Shanghai and Beijing have been ranked among the top ten cities in the first ten cities for two consecutive months.

Shell data also shows that in the first 10 months of 2023, the transaction cycle of Beishangguang's Shenzhen Real Estate was extended by 6.1, 7.6, 5.4, and 3 days from the same period in 2022.After a house is listed in the Beijing rental market, it will take nearly a half month to rent out, Shanghai is more than one and a half months, and Shenzhen and Guangzhou will take more than two months.In the same period before the epidemic, the transaction cycle of the four cities was within 40 days.

Liu Yan's high -end leasing is the hardest hit area in the rental market.She said that there were not many foreigners who had escaped from Shanghai after Fengcheng, and companies in China were not good because of their poor benefits to reduce hiring foreign employees.Even in the past, online celebrity bloggers often changed houses in order to shoot demand. In 2023, consumption was downgraded.

A Beijing intermediary who has been rented by a German car company employee for many years also disclosed that after the entrance isolation is lifted, many newcomers came to Beijing, "but more people left."

The intermediary pointed out that the restrictions on international travel during the epidemic prompted many Chinese families to return from overseas, coupled with foreign employees who stayed in Beijing, the overall rental market was quite stable.After letting go in 2023, "Many foreigners have gone back and the Chinese are gone."

Huang Tao, general manager of Guangzhou Central Plains Real Estate Project, analyzed in the interview that the environment of China's economic bottoming out is at the same time impacting the supply and demand of the leasing market at the same time.It is difficult to find work in 2023, and the increase in layoffs has led to a decline in rental demand and budget in large cities.On the other hand, the continuous decreasing house prices have put some owners to put on holding the house selling plan and turn to the leasing market, resulting in continuous increase in housing supply."The two ends of supply and demand are decreased, resulting in a decline in rent."

The influence of weak economic and expected downturn on the rental market is also reflected in the increase in demand for low -cost rental housing.According to data from Shell Research Institute, the proportion of units within 5,000 yuan in Shanghai's rent in the third quarter increased by nearly four percentage points, and the proportion of units within 3,000 yuan in Guangzhou increased by 1.8 percentage points.

The most impact is the mid -range market.Liu Yan pointed out that units with a monthly rent higher than 20,000 yuan, if the location or decoration has obvious advantages, it can still be rented soon.However, the supply of houses of 15,000 to 15,000 yuan is far greater than the demand, and the tenants have a lot of choices and become more picky.

"Many houses at this price were put on Airbnb to foreign tourists. Now there are few foreigners to China, and even Airbnb has withdrawn from the mainland market. This kind of house is even more difficult to rent out."

Beijing and Shanghai in mid-December 2023 Synchronous adjustment of the standard for ordinary house identification standardsAnd reduce the down payment ratio , driving the transaction volume of second -hand housing slightly recovered.The analysis predicts that the listing of listings in the leasing market will decrease, which may drive the rebound of rents in Beijing and Shanghai.

Dan Huang Tao believes that whether it is a housing rental or the buying and selling market, it is closely linked to the overall economic situation. "It takes a while to get out of the bottom."

Liu Yan predicts that the rental market will not gradually recover until the second half of 2024.

She said: "In 2023, the state continued to introduce the property market stimulus policy, but the role was not obvious. We mocked ourselves in our intermediary group.The impact of annual epidemic prevention and control only appeared in 2023; the policies that hope in 2023 can see the effect after one year.