(Beijing Comprehensive News) Li Daokui, an economist who was a consultant of the Central Bank of China, said that the Chinese real estate market may take one year to recover.Essence
According to Bloomberg, Li Daokui, who has served as a consultant to the People's Bank of China and currently the dean of the Chinese Economic Thought of Tsinghua University from 2010 to 2012. In an interview, real estate sales in large cities in China should beIt will grow up in the next four to six months, but small cities will take six months to one year to achieve recovery.
He said that some developers have a large number of projects in third- and fourth -tier cities, so the financial situation will not improve in the next six months.He also proposed that commercial banks' increase in loans is extremely important for preventing risks from spreading, so it is necessary to formulate policies to increase bank loans.
China's economic recovery is weak, and the sales of real estate are not bad. Many real estate companies such as Country Garden and Evergrande are trapped in the financial crisis, which affects market confidence.At the same time, due to financial pressure, banks have been restricting loans to the real estate industry.According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics of China, Bloomberg has continued to decline since the short recovery of this year, and the real estate development loan has continued to decline since April, and August has decreased by 25%year -on -year.
Li Daokui said that the establishment of a mechanism should increase bank loans to real estate developers and reduce the risk of breach of contract for real estate companies.He estimates that real estate developers will need about 100 billion yuan (S $ 18.71 billion) to deal with the current dilemma.He proposed that a possibility is that the central bank or the State Administration of Finance Supervision and Administration and the six largest commercial banks in China formed a committee, and then jointly issued loans.
Li Daokui said that when the sales of houses are restored, bank loans will be restored, but now what housing companies need liquidity support. This support does not mean that all real estate developers should survive, but to alleviate the market to alleviate the marketPanic and prevent the spread of breach of contract.
He estimates that the central bank may cut interest rates again before the end of the year, but there will not be many or large interest rate cuts, because bank profit margins are already low.He believes that the main problem of China's economic and financial system is insufficient loan demand. Compared with interest rate cuts, it is more effective to introduce policies to stimulate consumption and housing demand.
In the long run, Li Daokui believes that real estate can still become an important thrust of the economy, but the degree of impact as a growth engine will be greatly reduced.
The real estate crisis is also spreading to other related industries.A listed company, which provides indoor and outdoor decoration and design services, is built. Because of his inability to repay debts, he has applied for bankruptcy from Shenzhen court on Monday (September 25).
